So you are stuck in the last decade.
At $80 a share... Fannie had 1/2 the business it has now and 1/2 the Fee % revenue (when they were demonized for trying to allocate risk).
So $80 x 2 = $160 x 2 = $320
This is the "potential" in raw figures.
I think you could figure up around $250 to $275 as a fair point - just cause.
So how does the look on a PE basis.... at $260 figuring a 12x multiple would be $21 a share in income.
In a regular economy that would be around $5.7B a quarter . - it did near $4 last Q in a cruddy environment of the Feds own making.
So.... how unrealistic are the $100+ estimates?
Thought you'd agree. .
Most people would agree at this point that a release is eventual.
Its going to happen eventually, might as well make it happen now and get on with it.
This would be in the best interest of the economy to just get it over with so we as a nation can move on.
It dawned on me today..
Its really very simple.
In November its expected that the Republicans will win the Senate and maintain control of the house. These means Dictator Harry Reid will no longer be the Senate Majority leader. And the republicans can offer widely criticized efforts to kill Fannie and Freddie that is supported in "public" by obama.
Problem is none of it will ever pass the senate and the house. There simply are not enough votes to kill Fannie and Freddie in the house and senate - let alone that obama really won't sign it - because doing so would kill their golden goose and deep six affordable "housing". Do you really think banks will bend over for "affordable housing" and other concessions...
Not a chance.
Folks this is the reason. Nothing else explains it.
Besides one day someone is going to file a motion demanding "release" of Fannie and Freddie pursuant to the hera law; in a manner of "showing cause" action.
Tell me why this isn't a gross over reaction in price?
Linn is hedged into the future with strong reserves. Even if it were to reduce the divi to cover the debt the multiples are still favorable.
I can't imagine a situation where the defendants tell the judge - we can't fully disclose all of the information because that would be so ruinous to our case as to make us lose - therefore, i pray to you that you hide it, cover it up, continue perpetrating a coverup.
Didn't Nixon get in trouble for this type of "executive priv" thing?
To me if the defendant in a civil matter is less than honest disclosing available information, they've pretty much just confirmed culpability as a cover up (lie) in one area is a cover up (lie) in all areas.
Must really be bad if the truth would cause so much harm? Like is obama gay? Or did reid, geitner, and bernanke have a threesome? Or is Paulson a transvestite?
They are going to refile in another district with a judge that is not tainted.
If these folks would just end the swipe. Recalculate and reallocate the interest rate and payments at 3% retroactively, They'd be owed $30 Billion in overpayments and building capital. That would mean an end to conservatorship in a year or so with over $50 Billion of capital. Job done.
You have to ask this question.
Everyone knows that the SEC enforces their rules thru the DOJ / FBI etc. And who do you think controls those people?
The executive branch of the government that has given you benghazi, fast and furious, irs scandal, sec. Service scandal, and several many more of late.
Private Security actions are normally limited to shareholder activities; or people with vested interests.
So, if all your rights are taken from you ... what is the basis of your complaint?
Since Ackman likes to include those bogus warrants the real target is $160 - $200. I'll take it.
This is a stupid statement about the judge.
Aren't they suppose to care about the law no matter what?
I mean, if ya'll recall a couple years ago the Hurricane in New Orleans, Katrina they called it. Caused a lot of damage, people were going nuts, total chaos, lots of the world is ending paranoria going on. If you recall, their were some dude shot and killed on a bridge. And after all was said an done some dude went to jail for killing him.
It was, like just because the world is going to Heck in a handbasket don't mean you can forget the rules.
Similar to this situation, just because of panic and nutzo people doing crazy things can't suspend the laws to meet the "whim" of the other people.
So, no . I don't buy it.
Just let fannie and freddie go!
You don't understand do you.
The compensation the "government" gets from the GSE's is the ability to "manage policy through them"
This is the offset for their ability to borrow funds and buy loans that has historically offered access to the 30 year fixed rate rate loan.
Absent the government's meddling the GSE's would not be in this problem today; as they would have never underwritten the risk they bought into; because they were instructed to do so by FHFA to save the economy. Remember, the GSE's have always been "two of the most highly regulated businesses in the world" and see what it got us? What responsibility is the government taking for their poor decision making?
Seems they - the government are wacking the gse's the upstream business partner instead of the root cause of the problem. Looks to me they have their attention squarely on the messenger instead of the message writer. classic.
I am an old GLS owner and have allowed Div Reinvest to add to shares. Management here is putrid. But, I believe in the overall undervalued nature of the beast. At some point management will retire, die off or tire of its own antics and the stock will bubble back to life, meanwhile I add a few shares each quarter or so and eventually the $12 shares bought with the little divy will be worth $25.