Ya know... i'd like to argue this ... but i can't. Only thing is the price of oil is going no where in the next 9 months. No reason to rush into this - better to pare operating costs and reduce overhead and try and limp thru it. No way banks want to push LInn into 11 since there is no management of the assets once its in. I certainly would do everything to avoid 11 as everyone loses including the banks and creditors. oil will recover... just not next week. I would put the kabash on all unnecessary spending... and extend the balance sheet. Otherwise ... yep ... they are toast. Expect share price to trade in the 30c a share tomorrow.
There must be those liquidating shares associated with the purchase; such as IFLC... perhaps the shares are flooding the market? From a business perspective, the sell off is nuts. AER has long term non-cancelable leases staged out for many years. They are recovering more in lease payments future value than the planes are worth, with the benefit of the planes being worth millions upon expiration of the lease terms. Now, some argue, the price of fuel, makes economical planes worth less since incremental difference in running a plane that is just 15% less efficient is only a few million. That's like saying my 4c Rav4 is worth less today than my 6c Rav4 because the cost of fuel is less. Oh, and my 4c is 5 years newer.... really? NO. AER, on cash flow alone should be $60 stock.
Been a long time. Can't understand what the heck is going on; You'd think that low oil prices would make airlines that have leased the planes MORE likely to make payments timely and reduced credit risk associated with the third world credit exposure. But, NOOOOOO they want to focus on value of long lived assets.... really? How stupified!
This overall market is very irrational. There is no reason AER should be anywhere near this low; on a fundamental basis, it should easily by significantly higher. Thus I wait.
Tmm38 - the $25 per is / was BS on my part; i know that. But, i would "take" $25 (Gladly). Factually, post market crash... about the last 3 years... management here has "lost" it. Selling 11M shares at $4 under book (net of mindless) costs. Just to then buy back 1/2 of them three years later and again incurring massive fees - is DUMB.
What crazy things are next?
Not that my opinion counts.... it certainly doesn't. But I passed on their "offer". I figure; at some point they'll probably figure it out and my shares will be worth fair value.
I am prepared to accept $25 a share.
September BV = $700,680,000 subtract $100M = $600,680,000 BV
Sept issued shares = 41,327,300 subtract 7,692,307 = 33,634,993
Beg BV = $16.95 End BV = $17.85
Its actually a really stupid thing for these people to do.
Instead they should have just reduced the dividend and used the $$ to buy planes. Unless they are saying its not a good market for buying planes. In which case they should just refi debt and return the $$ to shareholders.
But this doing a secondary and then repurchasing the shares you just issued ... is silly, unless its really a scheme to put the shares into a controlled group by selling to friends and using the proceeds of the secondary to buy back open market shares.
Look for Fly to go private?
So... on ipo'ing you say how much you want to sell and do so until you get people to buy... in a reverse situation they want to buy 75Milion worth on x shares.. so say i can offer 20,000 shares at say $30 a share and if they take it.... then great. or ... i really want to sell so i offer 20,000 shares at 14 and they then can start at the bottom and go up until they spend 75Million? alternatively they can buy on the open market?
Seriously, this massive repurchase - on the heels of the secondary... is stupidly nuts. Maybe this is part of a larger plan to to a managed ... MBO? By using issing shares to bbam and then using $$ to buy back free trading shares.
These guys are clueless as to the operations of the business. Management is bi-polar. They do a secondary and crater the stock and now they remove the dividend.
If you go to yahoo and look at the analyst estimates for 2016 and 2017 it depicts decreased revenues and eps. Which i think is beyond nuts... this is for some reason part of the problem. Anyalyst coverage of AER is non-existent. Its just not a sexy stock.
I've written its nuts for this not to be at 60. This time next year we should be at 70.
I would love to see even a small dividend to allow me to accumulate some near free cheap shares as we wait.