Try something else to scare us.
No thanks needed
Marketwatch is reporting the huge demand this year for 55 plus communities which may favor Pulte a bit more than Toll and the lack of inventory is pointing to a huge demand for new homes this year. I'm convinced now more than ever that Toll's stock which has been stuck in the 30's the last year will make a big move upward soon.
You will hear the sky is falling today, but private employment up 142,000 as gov't cut 29,000 which is good. Household survey up a whopping 616,000 and participation rate rose as did wages. Buying opportunity if market falls today and with the aaii survey showing more bears than bulls, I suggest relax and have a good weekend.
just a heads up on mntr and they are diversified investing in biotech also.
This survey is undefeated in a 3 to 6 months the market is higher once bears outnumber bulls and with bulls in the mid 20's I'm willing to bet the market hits new highs by summer.
I thought we would hold at 15,700, but was wrong. We might have to retest lows or go to 14,800, but the number of bulls have collapsed from 55 to 27 in 4 weeks so we are close to a bottom if not already. This survey has a flawless track record and the market is usually a lot higher once bears outnumber bulls. In fact with bears and neutral over 73% of survey I fell confident of a bottom.
Another tidbit, Detroit is now leading the nation in flipping with profits over $30,000 per home.
Again, we held the 15,700 and 1775 bottom. Problem today is Friday and that could skew the indexes and potentially breaching these areas. AAII is now showing more bears than bulls and investor intelligence has bears increasing so from a contrarian viewpoint another positive. Homebuilders are performing well with Tol hitting 37 today and Pulte upgraded. If you look at the stock leaders minus amazon and financials, everything is holding well so far. I think it's clear that the holiday season was disappointing, but retail sales are not as bad as the pessimists say. That said, we need to get some clearer picture on the currencies or we could have a major problem.
We will see if we hold, but GDP was great up 3.2% and factoring in .9 decrease in gov't spending over 4%. PHM and BZH had better than expected earnings. Only negative was decrease in investment in housing of 10% in GDP report, however that was mostly weather. Homebuilders looking mighty tasty again.
Stronger dollar improves real estate with lower interest rates.
Correctly called the turnaround yesterday, but usually the market needs to test that support so not out of the woods yet;. I do feel falling below 15,700 and 1775 on spy is less likely, but I would still be cautious.
Great earnings from DR Horton, consumer confidence was high today and prices on homes are coming back.
Good day for once.
15,700 looks imminent. SPY support in the 1767 range and nasdaq at 3990. My guess is we turn around this afternoon, but I'm not calling a bottom yet. Toll was downgraded today and new home sales disappointed so the bears have their day. Nothing has changed my long range view - correction although painful is mandatory in a bull market.
I'm hoping people bought the vix calls I stated the buy for protection. If we get some panic selling Monday and hold 15,700 and 1750 on the spy then were ok. If we blow thru this support, unfortunately there is no support until 14,800. !4,800 would be a 10% correction and that should hold unless this china investment firm blows up and the emerging countries currency collapse. We have record high margin debt and the BDI is signaling less growth. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried, but usually that means were close to a bottom.
We need a turn quick and if we close above 16150 today we won't test 15,700. I'm thinking now no support until 15.700 then buy for a quick trade.
Eric Holder just announced 2 hours ago - not much talk yet, but I think this is the catalyst for the move.