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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

jeffy777 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 3:44 PM Member since: Dec 11, 2004
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  • jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 24, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    NMB,

    MIRON, ACH and SMG were sold to ACE3 which thought was more than 50% owned by ACAS. Page 11 of the Q1 2014 says it is managed by ACAM (ACAS get the fees) and Investor Capital somewhat split between private equity partners and ACAS also ACAS was contributing Equitiy. I did not or do think ACE3 is ACAS free it is just now has partners who carry some of the liabilities and gains. So ACAS is still in the game of Equities they just do not want to be in a go it alone proposition with this part of their portfolio. This should distribute the risk and flatten some reward and guarantee returns. Did I read it wrong? Or are you stating this to highlight their lower exposed risk and capability to change their business scope. ?

    Thanks
    Jeffy

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings runup?

    by fred4267a Jul 22, 2014 9:27 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 22, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    My point was not to be disparaging. It was to say we are a class of investor $10,000 to 10,000,000. We are not not direct market makers. Maybe there is someone here on the board who is. (I AM NOT.) Although we have convictions and we have put money toward those convictions it will be the mark makers who truly will drive ACAS up dramatically.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 22, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    You are the man. Unless you are a woman. Then, you are the woman. Not saying I know you are a man or a woman. You are You. You are the best you who bought options during the time you bought the options unless by some wild chance someone better did it.

    Wow ... you are good! And I was allowed to be on the same Yahoo board with you. :)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings runup?

    by fred4267a Jul 22, 2014 9:27 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 22, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    Done,

    I am probably not as sophisticated as some. But the Yahoo board here is meaningless except to help us draw ideas upon.

    I have read on the various boards where people report they have bought 70,000 share of this and 100,000 shares of that at a clip. Some may have that much but if they were trading day to day in those volumes I would question them basing their information on Yahoo boards though I think this community (ACAS Yahoo board) of people on this board are trying and succeeding generally on accuracy of information and insight. Luckily I don't remember in recent times people making such bold statements. We are small investors and we only matter but so much.

    But the issue is not us but ACAS. ACAS has to deliver on a plan and leave out the guess work. It is not the Yahoo board that is flawed it is ACAS who is being slow. A substantial beat would help but a documented plan with time frames and execution items would allow ACAS to move.

    IMHO. IMHO.

    Jeffy

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend ?

    by wareham2620 Jul 17, 2014 9:36 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 21, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    I do not think any Divi will happen until they come up and out with a plan. There maybe a settlement dividend in order produce goodwill. Some people have suggested there will be spin off operations and one that will act like a traditional BDC and therefore have dividends with it. Until they clearly tell me I do not speculate. I would invest more money into ACAS if I knew better what the future will look like with them. They are undervalued. It has a small part of my purchasing than some other things right now but I would still call it a buy for it is undervalued. ACAS is not a fast reacting company in regards to this re-org(IMHO).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reorganization Status?

    by lenyw Jul 17, 2014 10:47 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 18, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Done,

    I am not a happy ACAS shareholder. I am not yet unhappy. I am however concerned at a year and a half talking about a planned split. My Mom and Dad did not want to split because they believed me and my siblings would be damaged which in fact damaged us more dealing with their continual fighting. ACAS needs to split or stay together. They need a straight forward plan and say what they are going to do and do it. It appears like they are like my Dad always talking about a divorce and never doing it meanwhile we the shareholders suffer waiting and hoping our parents will get the focus off themselves and have a more balanced view which considers us shareholders better.

    PS.
    (My parents got the divorce only I grew up and out. My brother got showered with gifts to get their love and support. My shares were sold too early and I missed out. Everything was better although we all were jealous of my brother. The moral of the story is ACAS needs to be true to a plan and we will all get happy, but if all they do is talk about splitting up we will be miserable.)

    I enjoy you and this board!
    Peace.. Jeffy!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reorganization Status?

    by lenyw Jul 17, 2014 10:47 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 17, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Done,
    Two things.

    One: If a plan comes out. (IF IF IF) And NOI was still low and ROE was single digit as you express, but it now details of a good plan which resolves the shareholders concerns and starts making operations which do have better returns would not investment follow?

    Two: I would not think a low NOI would mean the share price valued well beneath NAV. Amazon would be .50 not $350+. I can only speak for myself but: I tend not to buy and hold stocks that have no future though I might trade in them.

    I do not consider myself a true believer but I have risked some on ACAS and I still have faith it will turn. Everyone complains about employee options. But those employee options put and made a large group of employees in the same boat with us. So if ACAS wins they win and we win (they are with we).

    Good luck to you, and I always enjoy your ideas.
    Jeffy

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Political Posts ...

    by its_not_my_business_but Jul 15, 2014 11:00 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jul 16, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    I don't know what you are talking about? (LOL)... I must have ignored the political poster. ;)

    Hey... so what about ACAS? I keep thinking quarter over quarter this will be it. Will this be the quarter when a plan is formally introduced and rolled out (certainly pieces have been spoke about and preliminary things are done) and I get a crystal clear view of future ACAS? NMB, Blankwillie and some others seems to have been one who has seen things the most accurately but the cake has not been baked; the ingredients have been gathered and it may have gone in the oven but I still don't know exactly what to expect the cake to taste like. So will this be the quarter or how far out are we?

    Jeffy

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    its the economy stupid!...

    by sandy.criscione Jun 18, 2014 5:21 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jun 19, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    This is not indicate of anything bad about the good you say about ACAS: You know Mortimer's attempt to buy was the failed idea and was forced to sell after the orange crop came in. Bought in at $150 and sold at $29. (Just saying...) It was the end of Duke and Duke. But Jamie Lee Curtis was awesome. ;)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Moses and Malon

    by buyandwin Jun 16, 2014 11:46 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jun 16, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    I think that is interesting... Malon... Moses...

    I do believe it is important to have faith and trust in management and structure of who and what you are investing in or I would leave or short the stock (I don't short stocks though). That being said, I would not and am not yet a Malonite as to follow him into Valley of the Shadow of Death. Malon and the management structure has done well overcoming what seemed like an impossible problem and has an opportunity to overcome and show true greatness (I am still waiting for that) although I do believe I do have admiration him and the others in management. I have yet to have that Moses moment yet.

    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Acquired Premier Foods to raise cash?

    by donedealer Jun 15, 2014 8:02 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jun 16, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Donedealer,

    I am questioning some of what you have wrote to understand it.

    1. I do not believe that a cash surplus is needed for restructurings: Are you saying ACAS is lying and ripping off share holders?

    2. Where are you basing: Is is possible that buy-backs were suspended because although they were increasing NAV per share, they were slowly liquidating the company thereby threatening layoffs and compensation increases?

    I personally believe that the restructuring is requiring a good amount of cash. Is that good or bad, it is clearly too soon to tell (IMHO).

    I am not sure that the restructuring is going to be good for all shareholders. I don't think anything will be illegally done. There are timing and other considerations for each shareholder and perhaps many shareholders don't do as well (It happens).

    If you are unhappy about the unfair nature of things due to ACAS' management being overly benefited there is nothing anyone can do about that. That is the nature our stock market, all stocks have similar issues. If you do not have trust in the management then sell or short the stock (That is what I would do).

    IMHO... good luck to you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NMB-Thank You

    by buyandwin May 30, 2014 8:59 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 Jun 1, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    I second that.

    I would like to say it is the whole rational conversation of this board that makes it great. I do not know NMB. He makes compelling arguments for his beliefs. I don't know that things will unwind the way he says. This is an investment for me. It is not that important all in all. This board and the collection of the people on it are decent debaters to their ideas. The people here generally make good arguments which generally do NOT degenerate to the school room behavior some of the other yahoo boards have got to. To all of you people of good character I wish you well, I just sometimes do completely agree or understand your perspectives, but I wish you well. :)

    As for ACAS it is almost impossible for me to lose with you. But ACAS do well, people have great faith in you and they have put their money and trust in you. (I hope ACAS sometimes reads our babble.)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Yippie

    by yourbestfriendintheworld May 27, 2014 5:45 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 28, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    Brother, The big factor there is while I am butt-ugly I still got her(although others were trying to make there move on her). I see her as a great beauty but I am sure after 30 years of being around me she is not the woman she once was but I am just as ugly. ;)

  • Reply to

    Yippie

    by yourbestfriendintheworld May 27, 2014 5:45 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 28, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    Because ACAS has not or cannot do (there are rules of when, where and what to disclose) what is necessary to acquire significant interest. While they have talked around about their plans they have yet to announce anything concrete. We will have a group of investors who are waiting and not willing in regards to ACAS. It reminds me of the time just before purposing to my wife, she liked me but the commitment of the engagement ring got her to really speak proudly and boldly me about me and she was committed to buy all the shares of Jeffy stock. ;). (ACAS just needs to put a ring on it!)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Value of Assets Under Management

    by donedealer May 21, 2014 1:10 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 22, 2014 7:10 AM Flag

    ACAM is a business unit of ACAS. American Capital Asset Management (ACAM).

  • Reply to

    Value of Assets Under Management

    by donedealer May 21, 2014 1:10 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 21, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    To me the value that is real that I could never wrap my head around was looking at as an average net income percentage of total net income. Then you can, in my mind, find a valuation which would draw against NAV or SP. I thought it was 2.50 to 3, SWAG at best, but I do not feel I could clearly acquire the information cleanly enough to be any more comfortable than a SWAG. But things have changed since the inception of ACSF.

    Just recalling my thoughts while I was worrying about the REITs.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pounding the Table Again, BUY

    by ribi1 May 16, 2014 4:10 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 19, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    Done, Is it valuable to dream or debate about what ACAS could have done? ACAS has and is doing what ACAS wants (as all companies do). Maybe I am characterizing you and me and everyone on this board poorly, but if we had a voice that ACAS listened to and found valuable we would not waste our time on these forums. We really can only look at what ACAS is doing and try to formulate where they are going and if we can make money with them. We are just minor shareholders. Our handle is just a ride-along with the big boys. It is obvious either ACASs prospective or direction or ideology is not working in a way that would make you comfortable. The next question is which one of those things is it and can and will you/we make money (Cause that is all I am here for, although I love the debates too).

    I enjoy your knowledge and perspective. I am just saying the milk is spilled and it appears ACAS is going a different direction.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OT: Anyone Have An Opinion On ARR?

    by buyandwin May 17, 2014 9:21 PM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 18, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    IMHO...
    AGNC and ARR are similar. I have owned both and do not own either anymore. They are solid businesses and if it was not for market forces and my own limits I would have kept them. They have suffered from compression in crack spreads (A term that was taught to me so if it wrong hate the teacher and teach me something better). The mortgage rates they are making their money on is spread on Agency ARMs, Hybrid ARMs, and fixed rate RMBS. More than 75% of mortgages are satisfied with 15 years. AGNC and ARR borrow and they term is normally I believe 3-5 years. Although they are always initially favorable for AGNC and ARR in falling rate environments in a raising rate environment they suffer crack spread issues because they may be borrowing at a rate that is too close or higher than the loans they are supporting. This is NOT as big an issue as it might appear. Twenty-five percent of all loans are satisfied during the mREITS borrowing cycles. Each and every year crack spread issues are reduced. Because these are agency REITS they are backed loan failures are not a much of a factor calculated in the problem. The problem is that market sometimes react like lemmings and the see a loss and the irrational run to lower SP sometimes they are as wise as can be.

    I left AGNC at roughly 32 because I thought it matured and rates were as low as they could go. I had gotten in at 16's during the disaster of 2008-2009 time frame.

    ARR I got in at the 7's and rode to the 6's, the price action was not very good on ARR. It was more or less a wash for me.

    Because these are times of chaos I thought I would preserve the capital that I had seen grow and wait a little bit. It may be a good time to get back in I have not evaluated it out enough for myself. Thanks for reigniting my interest.

    There is a lot more complexity here but that is the best I should attempt to do for you. Good luck.

  • jeffy777 jeffy777 May 16, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    That is a good point. If the spin off was to equally spin off and there be many little ACASs with all the same problems there would not be a great chance for dividend or higher SP. It is believed by me that certain pieces of a spin off would very quickly move and become fully values by the market. Other pieces would probably be valued as it is now therefore we would get more valuation by the market while not doing anything but splitting. The real question to me is what will the split up look like as to see what the value might be.

    I think it is natural to ask if it is the most efficient spread management and costs against multiple organizations or to have each one weighted with their own costs. One would naturally think ACAS would benefit from synergy. But maybe it is being hampered with too many layers of management. ACAS I think is saying their current system is not efficient and needs to be run cleaner to produce better profit.

    It seems clear to me that ACAS has yet to clear off issues of its past and that the economy and regulatory issues are not being very friendly to ACAS as a whole. So in part we probably should get better value from a piece or two and probably not lose much or anything from the other piece or pieces.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Getting hammered over past 2 days

    by lenyw May 15, 2014 10:40 AM
    jeffy777 jeffy777 May 16, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    B&W, Maybe I read it wrong. I will re-read, but my understanding was GS was hired for the restructuring which in my mind added more credence to the spin offs idea. ACAS is a great company for buying and selling equities, and good at setting up investments (ACSF, MTGE, AGNC ...), they are good at loaning money and making money from the loans. But what they are not as good at is split ups and they may have conflict of interest issues breaking themselves up, so I thought that is why they hired GS.

    Just my two cents.

    Sentiment: Hold

ACAS
15.74+0.22(+1.42%)Jul 25 3:59 PMEDT

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