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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

jelly1126 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2014 2:18 PM Member since: Sep 24, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Why would you pay $29.27 when the offering is $27?

    by mtay515 Nov 20, 2014 1:53 PM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Nov 20, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    The $27 offering price was much too low.

    The original price was 34/33, and the stock has been hammered mercilessly ever since the announcement. As you know, the company is receiving nothing for this, so they have no stake in what price the offering goes off at. I suspect the selling shareholders wanted to be sure their shares would sell so they priced them to sell. Once the market gobbled up those shares the stock was finally allowed to seek out its real price.

    Since these shares do not represent dilution, and the company did not disappoint with earnings, I expect the stock to finally settle closer to the $33 mark than $27.

    BTW, I got some in the follow on. They go very nicely with my IPO shares... I am happy.

  • Reply to

    Like I told you......NOTHING SPECIAL

    by james-hornback Nov 6, 2014 5:46 PM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Nov 6, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    You're funny. Net income is .90 per share and that is a GAAP number so treat it as real. Let's do some math...

    Assuming zero growth, the company makes 3.60 in a year. Let's say current price is 61. That gives us a PE of slightly less than 17.

    Consider that they guided to 50% PLUS growth, and we would actually see next years earnings at 5.40. and with a 17 PE we see $91 per share in 12 months.

    I'll take it, given that those are conservative numbers.

  • Reply to

    5000 more short at 61

    by sakhaneft Nov 5, 2014 9:38 AM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Nov 6, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    Just curious if you are still planning to stay with this trade. The knee jerk reaction to sell is the built in response to any earnings report this quarter, but the earnings were better than expected and the guidance is higher.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Out

    by jelly1126 Nov 5, 2014 4:43 PM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Nov 5, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Yes, it is definitely a non GAAP number, and a company like this is able to fudge on a lot of "one time items." That's why I am looking for corrections.

    Maybe "color" is a better word than "corrections." ;-)

  • jelly1126 by jelly1126 Nov 5, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    Looks like .15 after adjustments. I am new to this stock, so I welcome any corrections.

  • Reply to

    Just shorted at 222

    by qp6266 Oct 31, 2014 8:33 AM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 31, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    How does a company with zero earnings accumulate 2 Billion in cash and short term investments? Stop spouting GAAP... it's just another shade of grey. Cash flow is king.

  • jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 30, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Yeah, you are right. There are exceptions to every rule. When I am looking for an earnings play, I look for options with high implied volatility. This morning, the LNKD 185 puts that expire tomorrow had IV of 112%. That is huge, and even with a volatile stock like this one those puts should have been priced at 1.50 or so butt they went out at 3.05... CHA CHING!!!

    The thing is when you are buying options you want to see volatility come in to the stock, and if it doesn't you get little or no profit.

    When selling naked, the volatility is already there.

  • jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 30, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    While your stock might have been up 8% after hours, I doubt your calls would have ever been up 200%. On earnings day, options prices are pumped up by expected volatility, and when the earnings are reported the volatility comes out of the options and prices settle lower.

    I have learned to never buy options on earnings day. Only sell, even if you are selling naked.

  • Reply to

    option writers

    by tnorb Oct 30, 2014 3:49 PM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 30, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    lol, I have been writing my way to riches this week. On earnings day I wrote FB 74 puts. Next day, the stock was down but the volatility came out of the options and I covered for a 50% gain. I wrote BIDU 207.5 puts yesterday and covered today for 75% gain. Today I wrote LNKD 185s and they will probably expire worthless tomorrow.

    I love writing deep out of the money puts on earnings day.

  • Reply to

    with until guidance tonight

    by canafornians Oct 29, 2014 4:59 PM
    jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 29, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    They gave guidance in the press release. "Baidu currently expects to generate total revenues in an amount ranging from RMB13.850 billion ($2.256 billion) to RMB14.250 billion ($2.322 billion) for the fourth quarter of 2014, representing a 45.4% to 49.6% year-over-year increase. This forecast reflects Baidu's current and preliminary view, which is subject to change."

    Current estimates are smack in the middle of these numbers, so I wouldn't expect much unless they plan to cut expenses.

  • jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 17, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    The theta decay is going to eat you alive. I am not saying it won't happen, but you will need to see the stock down $3 per day just to stay at $1. Now if it goes down $8 on Monday you might have a chance at a double.

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