I don't think we know that yet? But I think k4s is right that it will be fewer, on average.
That said, as you mentioned your revenue estimate of $10K per patient in ESRD is low. And for both ESRD and NDD-CKD, the price will rise over time.
So $10K might be a reasonable estimate overall.
Some thoughts in response....
First, I agree with you that your assumptions are conservative. And I think the Company would agree too. They are now emphasizing, in their November presentation, that the incidence of ESRD (not prevalence, but incidence) is 100K+ people each year. In 2015, in other words, around 100,000 patients will be prescribed a phosphate binder for the first time. Their doctors will have every reason to recommend Auryxia. So in my opinion Auryxia will make a big impact and soon.
Second, the major institutional holders -- and I'm thinking of Baupost in particular, but also the other actively managed funds that have large stakes -- have all done this very kind of calculation and have price targets in mind. These institutions know that the stock will not be fairly valued until 2016 at the earliest -- because only then will the drug be on the market at all in the EU, and only then will the SNDA for NDD-CKD be filed in the US. In the meantime, these institutions will look askance at any buyout offer that falls short of their internal estimates of what Keryx can do.
Third -- and you can tell where I'm going -- I think your 2-year time frame is a minimum. I'm hoping to hold for a few years beyond that, to ride the follow-on geographic expansions, and the possibility of other anemia indications. By that time Keryx will likely have invested in a pipeline, and will have other drug candidates to move forward. They are not "multi-product" yet--but they intend to be.
27,000 patients? The American Cancer Society expected more than 1.6 million cancer cases to be diagnosed in 2013.
I agree wtih doxconjugator that the Hollings Center is simply a hook on which to update the recruitment numbers.
Several of them with the last name Dodd, I suspect. Which is the only conceivable reason for moving AEZS there.
Charleston is not high on the list of cities for biotech research VC funding. But I'm sure it's high on the list of places where CEOs want to retire.
So according to this morning's press release, "we are very pleased to be working with the Hollings Cancer Center at the Medical University of South Carolina for this trial, and look forward to other future collaborations with this most prestigious institution as part of our plan to establish activities in the Charleston area, one of the most thriving and exciting business communities in the United States.”
"Most prestigious"??? I would be laughing if this stock hadn't cost me so much money.
"One of the most thriving and exciting business communities in the United States"? Charleston has all of 130,000 people.
Who does Dodd think he's trying to fool?
Julia Lewis -- This clip is worth watching. Very interesting and revealing summary.
DaVita CEO -- not very interesting. Never mentions Auryxia. Focused on DaVita's current model of integrated care.
This was actually the most persuasive and powerful presentation that Ron has given. The slides were much better than usual. And he had rehearsed more carefully. There was a lot "when you think about" blah blah blah, but I also heard him use phrases that he's never used before -- "an oral drug that actually works" is very persuasive, and he can say that now.
His delivery got a bit more ummy as he went along. But his intonation was better. He ended sentences more confidently, with downward inflections. That was always his problem in the past--he ended every sentence as though he was asking a question? With a rising intonation? So that you couldn't be sure whether he himself was confident about what he was saying? That's largely--not entirely, but largely--disappeared.
Over on the clinic#$%$l tri#$%$ls website, #$%$ few ch#$%$nges were recently m#$%$de to NCT02128074 -- the 32-person study of Auryxi#$%$ #$%$dministered without food for IDA.
The study is now listed #$%$s "completed." The completion d#$%$te is "November 2014" (it h#$%$d been October).
There were 32 p#$%$rticip#$%$nts enrolled in the study (h#$%$d been 30).
Th#$%$t's #$%$bout it. Thrillsville, I know.
Presum#$%$bly we'll see #$%$ press rele#$%$se f#$%$irly soon.
If you go over to the new website for auryxia, you'll see that our marketing color seems to be orange.
Not sure why. Perhaps it's because people associate iron with rust?
We don't really know whether Baupost is still buying.
As of their last report (on Friday night), they were at 18.3M shares or so, as of Sept. 30, and holding steady.
Which of course is a huge vote of confidence in and of itself. But still buying? That is not known.
"Pleased" is fine. The tone the company is taking is that this just confirms what we already showed in the ph3 trial on which the FDA approved the drug. Which is the right tone, imho. So there's no reason to jump up and down.
But we still don't have a brand name?
Plus he's got no facts to back up his opinion. For Cramer, it's just "too speculative" and "too tough."
The analysts, however, are brave enough to put their target prices out there.
Poor Cramer. No guts, no glory.