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The Cushing Royalty & Income Fu Message Board

jerseyvinny2 76 posts  |  Last Activity: 35 minutes ago Member since: Jun 25, 2004
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  • Reply to

    VRP or PFF

    by bigg1013 Apr 10, 2015 3:27 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 35 minutes ago Flag

    There is a difference between PFF and VRP. The first holds mostly fixed coupon while the latter holds variable rate. The answer depends on what you think will be happening to interest rates. A SUBSTANTIAL increase in LIBOR interest rates will crater the value of PFF and push up the value of VRP as well as its distribution. I don't really think the coming interest rate hikes will be substantial (my opinion). I already own PFF but am considering adding VRP or converting some of the PFF to VRP. Interest rates can't go any lower so there's little downward exposure for VRP but a possibility of greater yields and capital gain if interest rates climb more than I think they will.

  • I figured this one to be a problem because its profits are all offshore and need to be converted to dollars. But their earnings report was way above expectations and only down 2% yoy after conversion to dollars and guidance so good the stock was up about 8%. Glad I was wrong about their prospects. Remember my advice: addicts make the best customers.

  • Reply to

    Thursday up again?

    by jkprice Apr 15, 2015 2:12 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 15, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    Jim, it's not really the American economy that crashed the price of oil so much as the Saudi's decision to keep pumping and flood the market. I don't use our economy as an indicator for that reason. IMO there is no reliable indicator as the Saudi's decision is based on preserving their market share and more esoteric considerations like sticking it to their #$%$ enemies who have a much higher cost basis.

  • Reply to

    Oil back up?

    by jkprice Apr 12, 2015 11:50 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 14, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    DH, I'm very glad to hear the news from your MRI. Enjoy your vacation. Your input will be missed. Before I retired, several of our research projects involved using an MRI which stands for Magnetic Resonance Imaging. The thing is a HUGE magnet. We had to pass through a metal detector before entering the room housing the MRI equipment. The reason was if we inadvertently carried anything made of iron like surgical instruments in our pockets they'd fly out and sail through the air aimed at the body of the machine and God help anyone standing in the way. I miss those days.

  • jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 12, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    The long name is no doubt to make it more difficult for Yahoo to block their posts.

  • jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 12, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    I hold plenty of T and now will also start to accumulate NYCB as well. It's not an either/or proposition. People should diversify. The only thing that has held me back so far is NYCB uses up about 90% of their earnings to meet the dividend. That's not good. But after watching for some time, I decided to take a chance.

  • Reply to

    Shipping outlook

    by keebon Apr 9, 2015 4:40 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 10, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    I guess I'm self-appointed to be devil's advocate. I don't care how much the use of natural gas grows. I'm confident in the shippers ability to screw it up just as they have dry bulk, and crude oil. Frankly, I'm surprised to see container shipping holding up as well as it has. The usefulness of a product doesn't necessarily mean a windfall for investors. Look at supermarkets, air lines and the automobile. As for the auto, over the years, there have been well over 200 car companies that ,through merger or bankruptcy, were distilled down to three. During the last economic downturn two of those three went bankrupt. My point is identifying a developing trend doesn't necessarily mean investors can profit by it. But then there's telephones which have been profitable for investors. Maybe I feel this way because I've decided I'm just not going to chase these shipping cycles any longer.

  • Reply to

    Some Thoughts

    by stonergreg13 Apr 8, 2015 11:04 AM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 9, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    I never had any inclination to sell any NRZ shares in the early days when the market disrespected it. The 11% yield and the extra dividends to offload the excess distributable funds told me this was a keeper.

  • Reply to

    OT: spo for O

    by marklibera Apr 6, 2015 10:33 AM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 6, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    REITs and real estate have become the biggest category in my portfolio. I try to keep them diversified having unpleasant memories from my concentration in mREITs in 2008. Currently holding: GOV, HCP, HME, CDPYF, IRM, JRS, NRZ, NYMT, O, SNR. It's not that I expect exceptional things in this area but rather my desire to cast as wide a net as possible with my income stocks. Some like GOV,HCP and HME I might not buy today but I've held them so long in this taxable account and don't want to deal with capital gains taxes. Plus the income is still decent. I would stay away from any REIT based on Sears.

  • Reply to

    OT: spo for O

    by marklibera Apr 6, 2015 10:33 AM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 6, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    I was holding some O preferred from 2008 because that was as much risk as I would take in real estate back then. A few months ago, the stock was called and I used the cash to buy O common. Very pleased with it.

  • Reply to

    Why I'm holding my oil producers.

    by jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 8:25 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 5, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    Before Obama lets the Republicans scuttle 'his' deal, he'll circumvent congress by going directly to the UN for approval. This man has no use for the constitution. The Republicans have already threatened to defund the US's portion of the UN's upkeep if the UN usurps their power. Fasten your seat belts. Gee I hate it when the market is closed.

  • Reply to

    Why I'm holding my oil producers.

    by jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 8:25 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 5, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    William, if a jet liner was brought down by Americans, I'm sure it was an accident just as the one recently crashed by Russian/Ukrain rebels was unintentional. But storming an embassy and holding the personnel for a year does not qualify as an accident. I will not forget because I don't believe anything has changed with this regime. Having family over for Easter dinner. Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.

  • Reply to

    Charts

    by marklibera Apr 4, 2015 12:54 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 4, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    Mark, I'm not much of a chart guy. Mostly, I just check the 50 DMA and 200 DMA and the RSI. Sometimes the story is more interesting. The utilities have suffered a setback presumably in anticipation of the coming rate increase. Seems overdone in which case a shopping trip among the utilities might be in order because I don't expect much of an interest rate move. UTG comes to mind. So many ideas, so little money.

  • Reply to

    Why I'm holding my oil producers.

    by jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 8:25 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 4, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    Sc4, what does it matter what the majority of Iranians want? Do you think this regime will allow themselves to be voted out of power? Do you remember their last election? In some parts of the world, all power comes out of the barrel of a gun. As for the Iranian regime being honorable about releasing the hostages, if they were honorable and trustworthy, they would not have imprisoned them in the first place. This thread is becoming too political and will solve nothing. I was just trying to explain what I thought to be the future of oil prices in light of world events.

  • Reply to

    Why I'm holding my oil producers.

    by jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 8:25 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 4, 2015 7:54 AM Flag

    William, I'm not in agreement. Inspectors will be turned away and work will be done secretly as we saw in North Korea. Why would a country not planning to build a bomb need ANY centrifuges? The actions of Iran's neighbors tells me they're not happy about developments either. And as for the Iranian economy being of any consequence, just look at North Korea. They have virtually no economy and were willing to see their people starve in their quest for a bomb. It's just a matter of priorities. Watching the apocalyptic regime in Iran chant "death to Israel, death to America" doesn't allow me to think this is going to end well. I think people are suffering from "normalcy bias" which makes them believe things will continue as they have in the past. I think American oil will become a very valuable commodity and am willing to wait it out.

  • I own three: SSL, VET and LINE. Am underwater on LINE. Watching the Iran negotiations, I feel I've seen this movie before starring other U.S. presidents and the North Koreans. So I know how this is going to end. The Persians are smarter than the North Koreans and everyone is smarter and more motivated than the American politicians.The difference is nobody considers the North Koreans much of an existential threat to any of their neighbors. But not so the Iranians. The Sunni countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey etc.) have formed an alliance and are already battling Iranian proxies. And that's without any help from Israel which also feels it needs to defend itself. Just stop and think about what all this tumult means in such an oil producing region. It isn't going to happen tomorrow but eventually....

  • Reply to

    O/T Oh Canada!

    by huffdaland Mar 27, 2015 10:51 AM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    Adding to what Mark said about Fording's good fortunes being temporary, there was, at that time, heavy rainfall and floods which closed down the met coal mines in Australia. So it was a transient weather phenomenon rather than sustained demand behind Fording's good fortune. And I guess everyone was trying to take advantage before the flood waters receded and the markets returned to normal.

  • Reply to

    O/T Oh Canada!

    by huffdaland Mar 27, 2015 10:51 AM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 3, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    DH, You're right about Canadian businesses being sound (although I have some reservations about the Canadian economy's dependency on selling energy and mining products) but I can also see Huff's point that we were deliberately lied to about what future the politicians had planned for the Canroys. Once burned, twice shy. My only remaining security from the Canroys is the company now called VET and that has worked out well. On another subject, we use various forms of Boxwood shrubs to thwart the deer and use Pachysandra as ground cover in lower light areas where grass doesn't grow well. Both have worked out very well.

  • Reply to

    OT: Still no interest…in rate hikes

    by dividendhunter Apr 1, 2015 5:53 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 2, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    DH, That METprB is still sitting in my stock account. I'm amazed with all the cheap money floating arouind that companies with excellent credit are willing to let us lend them money at around 5%. Not complaining.

  • Reply to

    OT: Still no interest…in rate hikes

    by dividendhunter Apr 1, 2015 5:53 PM
    jerseyvinny2 jerseyvinny2 Apr 2, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    Ed, You're right about the garlic (or onion) spray for the deer. Problem is my wife's complaints about the smell were worse than dealing with the deer. Best solution for me is just don't plant anything they like to eat. Buy produce at the market.

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