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Identiv, Inc. Message Board

jeschulien 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2001 8:13 AM Member since: Oct 20, 1999
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  • Reply to

    what is up with this stock

    by shb72 Oct 26, 2001 1:59 PM
    jeschulien jeschulien Nov 20, 2001 8:13 AM Flag

    stock is depressed (even after current rallye)partially because (so far) it doesn't earn its cost of capital (reason is so much cash on balance sheet); expanding into consumer electronics retail products; etc.
    however issues will be resolved in due time. maybe not this year, but sooner or later.

  • Reply to

    Nokia Longs

    by stinkycowdance Dec 29, 2000 10:52 AM
    jeschulien jeschulien Dec 29, 2000 1:10 PM Flag

    thoughts popping into my mind of you think of
    buying nokia shares for the long run:

    we all know
    that hitech is a fast moving field, and that it*s
    impossible to determine the exact winning technologies and
    future growth areas. therefore, you may wish to buy
    specific shares because you think the management is
    capable of exploring new trends, inventions and
    technologies. no doubt, nokia's management has a brilliant
    track record in this respect, both for very long term
    positioning (from tires to consumer electronics to mobiles),
    and short term management (very good M&A, ever
    stronger in UMTS, brilliant production
    execution).

    on the other hand, nokia has a very large market
    cap, and obviously share price appreciations is more
    difficult for large good company than for a small good
    company.

    nevertheless i think that nokia has a higher probability for
    being the dominant tech company in 5-10yrs than most
    other large cap techs, because it is strong in every
    part of its business (marketing, production, R&D,
    geographic spread). its management is not arrogant but
    continuoulsy listens to new ideas and pursues new
    opportunities, without overblowing the inherent business risk.
    actually it diversifies its business more and more (also
    due to new possibilities and new communications and
    IT concepts).

  • Reply to

    c_kanther

    by jkantor1312 Dec 27, 2000 2:24 PM
    jeschulien jeschulien Dec 27, 2000 8:52 PM Flag

    my humble view on ericy / nok:
    both will do
    fine in 2001.
    NOK will outperform in the first
    half, based primarily in current conditions. sales
    growth in infrastructure is strong (ericy and nok have
    the by far largest share of that cake). momentum in
    mobile phones is kept up with good new phones and the
    ever lasting story of economies of scale, branding
    etc. But i suppose it*s going to be difficult for
    nokia to come up with massive positive surprises
    (considering their incredible past)
    ERICY may do better in
    2nd half: infrastructure margins will improve, and
    the mobile phone business may be sold completely off
    (remember that ericsson has no phone factories at all left
    in sweden, and nokia has a market share of 60% for
    phones in sweden, ericssons home turf). this would help
    the stock tremendously. expectations for ericsson are
    just lower than for nokia, making it easier for ericy
    to surpass expectations and its market cap is less
    than half of nokia's, so insitutionals will be willing
    to invest in ericsson once we see indications that
    things will improve.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Dec 19, 2000 1:13 PM Flag

    back into nokia after 1 1/2 years without, after
    speaking with a equity sales person at enskilda
    securities. expect good news in january...

    (also
    ericsson will come with something: mobile business ->
    sony, good chance for that during spring/summer to get
    done)

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Nov 28, 2000 12:51 PM Flag

    1. s&p600 inclusion ->seems like good news,
    considering today's volume your question, real_flack, there
    seem to be enough funds watching that index.

    2.
    metabox got a 100,000 set-top box order from Uk. central
    elements, according to their press release, are a dvd-rom
    and a smart card reader. anyone knowing whether
    met@box is a customer for scmm?

  • Reply to

    earnings H&Q

    by jeschulien Oct 19, 2000 7:42 AM
    jeschulien jeschulien Oct 20, 2000 8:57 PM Flag

    monsieur real_flack,

    ad 1)as you are
    German let me point out that DVFA/SG numbers, ie. before
    extraordinary items, are understandably the important thing
    analysts in Germany calculate with: the operating profits.
    if somebody'd by coke, would entail a loss of some
    tens of billions of dollars because of goodwill
    writeoffs on the name of coke. Nevertheless nobody would
    consider this per se stupid,just because these assets
    aren't activated a 100%.
    ad 2) think of the cyclical
    chip sector; still scmm is growing
    ad3) + ad4): we
    do have analysts earning money so they develop
    thoughts further than writing existing numbers linearly
    into the future. try to understand scmms business, its
    diversified enabling technology portfolio, and what the
    future will bring. scmm has such a standing it's not as
    important as for internets to camouflage the
    numbers.

    generally: if you'd consider MSFT and CSCO and INTC on a
    basis of after extraordinary items (nobody does
    really), they wouldn't be where they are now.

  • Reply to

    earnings H&Q

    by jeschulien Oct 19, 2000 7:42 AM
    jeschulien jeschulien Oct 19, 2000 11:51 AM Flag

    depends on whether you look at EPS before or
    after extraordinary items.

    if you consider
    increase in current assets, very high R&D costs it really
    isn't that bad.

    growing organically: aixtron is
    mechanical engineer for an existing product market. SCM
    generates its "revenue" to a large extend for hardware
    others use in testing new products and combinations. as
    you probably know, scm's markets really don't exist
    yet on a large scale as they will later.

    also
    if flash memory chips get cheaper again (we all know
    the cycles of semiconductor industry) the profits
    will look quite different.

    positive things to
    remember about Q3:
    -reported in $, so negatively
    affected by weak euro (if SCM had reported in EUR... :-)
    )
    -even though we have a cyclical trough for all its
    mobile things, revenues grew
    -operating profit is
    also positive even though these flash things went
    through the roof in price.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 19, 2000 7:42 AM Flag

    H&Q lowered after profit warning the estamte for FY2000 to 44cents. so afr we have 17+9+12=38cents. looks good, from this point of view.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 18, 2000 12:48 PM Flag

    as no selling occured the last 1-2 weeks, I'm
    quite sure this is the last few hours to cover or to
    take the ride with you.

    even though figures may
    not be stunning, estimates are so low that it would
    be a pity for scm not to beat them.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 15, 2000 4:19 PM Flag

    Regarding the sale of state owned telekom stock,
    it's in the end really nothing about Schroeder. He
    said government is going to sell so that some US
    weirdo guys are calmed down.

    The big point is
    that we have a huge privatisation process running in
    Europe (Deutsche Post, owner of DHL, doing their IPO in
    November, for instance). This process is irreversable. It
    may only be slowed down by market weakness etc., but
    not by politicians (at least in Germany). The
    population is by a very large percentage in favour of
    privatisations, market forces etc. So even if politicians may
    make promises they don't keep, this is a promise which
    is easy to keep and very difficult to break (taken
    public opinion into account), because in Germany there
    is NOTHING for any politician to be gained by
    hindering the privatisation (ie, current public deficit
    level is being reduced, so the money is very welcome).

  • monday and tuesday will be very interesting in
    order to check stock movements by scmm. remember the
    last quarters- the stock moved in accordance to the
    figures before they actually were released i
    think.

    however, this 15% rise today may distort some of the
    movements beginning of next week.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 11, 2000 4:50 AM Flag

    however don't expect the German market to make significant moves form after-hours NY.

    We have to wait till 15.30 CET for trustworthy movements.

  • EUR 90 sharp -> $ 78,60

    now EUR 89,50...

  • esting thing about
    this, however, is which small companies are involved-
    you're right CSCO would have "won" no matter which
    consortium manager got the contract.

    40% of contract
    goes to small companies. SCMM is one of them, and it
    means c.50-60c bottom-line EPS p.a. the next years for
    a share valued at $37.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 7, 2000 7:47 AM Flag

    EDS won the hugest government networking contract
    ever, $7bn volume.
    40% of volume will be
    subcontracted to smaller businesses. SCMM is a subcontractor to
    EDS, and has always had a good share of
    military-security expenditure in the US.

    As one guy in
    Germany calculated, this contract alone should be worth
    at least 50-60c EPS for SCMM from 2000 onwards...

  • Reply to

    out of nok into ericy

    by jeschulien Oct 6, 2000 4:45 PM
    jeschulien jeschulien Oct 7, 2000 7:17 AM Flag

    NOK 10 yrs down the road: nokia is by any means a
    great company, and will be in some future product
    markets surely a leader.

    i don't really think
    nokia will get a hit for Q3. they're conservative
    investor relations people, so the numbers won't really be
    below expectations. also, consumers are still willing
    to pay a premium for Nokia mobiles compared to
    competitors, and have they have larger production volumes
    (incredible combination). look at the 62xx and 33xx phones,
    they surely have lots of elements from the older
    51xx/61xx phones so costs are very low.

    my problem
    with nokia (and lots of other large techs) is still
    valuation: since 1992, share price increased 92% p.a., with
    sales increasing just 31% p.a. Share price increased
    faster than internal growth: in 97 52% of market cap was
    based on the current discounted cash flow value (ie.,
    taking current growth rate and margins as constant and
    projecting them into the future). In 98, this DCF was only
    28% of market cap; in 99, it was a mere 11%! This
    implies that that profits must rise 90%...
    No matter
    how good management is, products and the markets are,
    this is VERY difficult for a large company.

    NOK
    v ERICY: Nok won't hit the 20s, I believe the
    market builds a base for a good autumn rally. As a fund
    manager of deutsche bank said, they would have bought
    tech stocks (in Europe) on Friday, if there'd be any
    volume in the market (on NASDAQ it was maybe different,
    but on the NM markets in Europe, volume was extremely
    light). I think sentiment is shifting in a positive
    direction.
    However, i think Nokia won't offer large returns in the
    near future, maybe 10-15% p.a. so the market cap gets
    a better relation to internal growth again (which
    will be maybe 30% p.a. in the future).
    ERICY- lots
    of people rather buy NOK stock with the same
    argument as you: Mobiles is easier to understand and
    evaluate (qualitatively-just looking what mobiles people
    want to buy) than infrastructure. Nokia does therefore
    deserve a premium compared to ericssson for that reason
    (similarly maybe to Coca-Cola and other Warren-Buffett
    stocks) in terms of P/E.
    I'd rather not buy MOT but
    ERICY for a very simple reason: the EURO. it's so
    difficult for multinational US companies to increase their
    $-profits with a EUR falling some 25%, but simultaneously
    so easy for EUR-companies to increase their
    EUR-profits... I think US-investors have suddenly realised the
    negative impact for US companies now (ridiculous that it
    happened so late and so quickly), but maybe not completely
    the positives for euro-companies.

    NTT-Docomo:
    interesting company, mobile market is booming in Japan,
    economic growth very good. Negatives: stock hasn't
    bottomed out yet (long-term), its planned large scale
    international expansion will be difficult considering they have
    NO non-Asian content AT ALL yet. I'd rather buy
    telco technology/infrastructure than telco carrier,
    also taking the huge investments required for carriers
    in new infrastructure, license costs, lower
    debt-ratings and thus exploding debt costs.

  • Reply to

    out of nok into ericy

    by jeschulien Oct 6, 2000 4:45 PM
    jeschulien jeschulien Oct 6, 2000 6:45 PM Flag

    some comments:
    ad1) that Asian consumers think
    highly of Nokia is OK and not against my argument. My
    point is that UMTS infrastructure is a good play rather
    than UMTS mobile phones (big telcos as customers are
    better than end-customers etc.). Companies now know
    (also because of Nokia) how efficient and profitable
    mobiles can be produced, and therefore they expand
    massively. Japan will have UMTS more than a year before
    Europe and even longer before the US and they MUST try
    to play this card.

    ad2)As I don't live in the
    US but are mostly in Northern European countries
    (Germany, UK, Norway/Sweden) I definitely live in an area
    with lots of Nokias around :-). Nokia is strong, yes,
    but will they be able to keep their market share at
    these enormous levels (and the margins?).
    ad3)In
    Germany I see a remarkable tendency away from Nokia to
    Siemens 35i etc. because they're cheaper with more
    features (even better batteries now!). They're uglier, so
    women still rather have Nokias (although some new
    Nokias aren't as nice as the classy 61xxs), but there is
    a shift I think.

    Again Nokia probably will
    develop strongly, and find new areas (ie., multimedia
    set-top boxes).

  • member the
    name from back when I had nokias c.2years
    ago).

    E may leave handsets, probably. but I don't think
    we should underestimate "the Japanese".

    As
    you will know, GPRS is just intermediate. UMTS with 7
    lines (compared to 1 for GPRS) will be important, also
    because of the massive licenses and their psychological
    effect.

    The Japanese will have a significant advantage in
    terms of volume production and development, and I don't
    think we should look at the past (GSM) and simply
    project the conditions back then into the
    future.

    also, look at the mobile market now as compared to 1-2
    years ago. I think it's getting more fragmented. OK
    ericy loses share and mot as well, nok gains, but
    siemens, alcatel, samsung and even matsushita (or so...)
    are pushing whole-heartedly into the phone-market
    (they didn't some years ago). siemens is already a
    solid no.3, and they're finally making huge profits in
    mobiles, so they've learnt the business and are sure to
    stay. after all they do have massive resources and some
    of the best engineers worldwide, also compared to
    Nokia if I dare say so.

    The market for nokia
    mobiles will grow 35% next year, then slow to 25-30% in
    2002. it's not 50%+, at least according to an enskilda
    scandinavian equity sales guy here in frankfurt.

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 6, 2000 4:46 PM Flag

    time to swap nok's into ericy's.

    for the
    3rd generation new infrastructure building, ericsson
    has won 13 out of 21 possible contracts.

    nokia
    is unfortunately going to suffer from asian mobile
    phone makers- they are the first with UMTS/3G
    experience and will surely leverage their knowledge and
    experience in Japan for Europe and eventually the
    US.

    still fantastic management which will have surprises
    for us in store...

  • jeschulien by jeschulien Oct 6, 2000 4:45 PM Flag

    time to swap nok's into ericy's.

    for the
    3rd generation new infrastructure building, ericsson
    has won 13 out of 21 possible contracts.

    nokia
    is unfortunately going to suffer from asian mobile
    phone makers- they are the first with UMTS/3G
    experience and will surely leverage their knowledge and
    experience in Japan for Europe and eventually the US.

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