How did you manage to write so much yet say so little? Are you a politician? I speak of the issues facing the company, you ignore them and just say it's going higher based on your experience of buying it before a 10% decline.
1. At the start of last cycle the software prices went up 20%. This cycle, 0%.
2. At the start of last cycle GME was starting a 50% store expansion. This cycle, they are declining.
3. Digital continues to grow and show no sign of stopping. Every digital sale is not only a likely lost sale, it also means no used game. Most gamers buying digital will do so directly from PSN or Live.
So compared to last cycle we have revenue compression due to pricing and lack of expansion, and margin compression due to used games decline.
I may have written in haste earlier. A drop of $3 per day puts TWTR at $0 next month.
Perhaps extrapolating a very short time window into the infinite future isn't helpful.
Perhaps it isn't different this time.
Of course it was a "great start". Don't you remember all the analyst pumping this year, and their estimates of holiday sales being down 50%, therefore only being down 24% is awesome? Actually, I don't remember that either. I seem to recall they were expecting significant growth. Oh well, maybe December will have software growth, when almost nobody can find the consoles and current gen games are having their prices slashed?
A simple extrapolation of $2 per day produces $600 by end of next year. Add in any impact of real news, not the kind this week that said, "Our staff continues to come into work", and you get $800. Then figure the market often over-shoots, so $1,000. A marketcap of over $500BN before they show a profit seems more than fair.
You weren't impressed by the "news" that their engineers are working on ways to improve their ads? They might as well have released news saying, "Our staff showed up for work today".
Perhaps it was deleted because you are lying again?
Fully diluted share count going from 129M to about 113M means an EPS increase of $0.50, not $0.75 as you claim. Where is the SEC, hmmm?
I agree Z was doing Icahn a favor, and it was probably arranged in advance that the money raised in June would go to Icahn's shares. However, playing devil's advocate, and I'm not one to defend Z, but an argument could be made that the recent incredibly bad CC, even by Z's incredibly low standards, was in part to prevent the price going higher before buying Icahn's stake.
The problem with Pach's P/E targets is he doesn't back out cash. I find it absurd to include cash in valuation, and ignoring it puts TTWO at an artificial disadvantage and ATVI at an advantage, who had about $3BN in cash before and are now net $1.5BN in debt, so all of ATVI's SP is their P/E. Back out $6/share or whatever in cash for TTWO (net of convertibles due), and only $10 of the SP should count for the P/E, making a more reasonable 11x-12x, which is well below ATVI and ERTS, despite ATVI's core franchises under-performing and the insider selling of their top Blizzard guy.
I enjoyed Bully but I don't see the upside of a sequel. There are substantial differences to Red Dead being a sequel. First of all, RDR went open world, which was a big factor in its success, whereas Bully started open world. Secondly, GTA and Red Dead represent aspirational fantasies of causing mayhem and being a Clint Eastwood style force of nature. Causing playful mischief in a school isn't such a thing. It's a fun novelty at best. Thirdly, these are different times, with all the news stories in recent years of teens being bullied then killing themselves.
No, it decreases the chances of an acquisition. That must have been Icahn's big play with the Board members too. He would try to generate interest for an offer, then dump into that spike. What does he care what happens after that? If the offer falls through he can repeat the game at GTAVI time.
Yeah it's the 4.2M I'm talking about in particular, which could have been bought in June. Are you sure they couldn't have gone through the launch without the additional dilution? Didn't they also have a line of credit available? Even if they couldn't afford to buy back much (any?) of the 7.5M in June at $15, the recent EPS FY raise would have been much larger without the June convertibles.
The message I hear from Icahn's exit is a sale isn't in consideration soon, and perhaps a willing sale by Z is never. This means a potential acquirer is faced with the EA style hostile buyout scenario, which rules out EA again I think, and might give Kotick pause too.
The Icahn repurchase was done outside of the approved buyback plan, which means the Board must have approved that use of company cash? And who is (was) the Board? Oh yeah, the Icahn's. Even if you approve of buybacks (I do), this is clearly motivated by the insiders using company cash to guarantee themselves a higher exit price, i.e. it's themselves first and shareholders a distant second.
The recent price action once again shows the fingers of insider trading in action, with Icahn and their friends positioning for this. It's good to be King. TTWO bought 4.2M shares in the open market at $17.38 prior to this, of their 7.5M authorization. Coincidence, or were they trying to get a higher price for Icahn's exit?
Why didn't they buy those shares in June at $15, when they knew the quality of GTAV and they must have been planning for that massive launch? We all wondered why TTWO did the $250M convertibles in June when they apparently had no need of it, which increased potential dilution and decreased reported EPS figures for this year, then they sat on the money. I think all along that money was earmarked for Icahn's exit, whatever happened with GTAV and TTWO's share price. That's why they didn't use it to buy shares at cheaper prices in June, which could have saved them at minimum $16M (if they bought the full 7.5M buyback authorization then instead of now).
Yes, getting downgraded and trailing the market 2% on the day is very bullish. Investors pray for every day to be like today.
As usual, the stock fails to meet investors expectations. As incompetent (at anything other than siphoning money from TTWO to his own pocket) as Z is, even I with my typically low expectations for this company am stunned at the kindergarten-esque errors recently:
1. "How much cash do you project at the end of next Q?", "We don't give that out." #$%$. The low enterprise value is the one big thing you have going for the company right now. Use it to talk about the value. Say somewhere that the company could be for sale at the right price.
2. Buyback. Use it. And authorize a larger one, that you don't have to use. Then we wouldn't have the problem of 10M shares or whatever which won't be dilutive until the share price is $27, being used in EPS calculations today with the SP nowhere near that.
How is the above not happening, with Brett on the Board and Carl invested?
3. Visibility. Is it so difficult to hint for what should be key releases in 2014 and 2015? You could internally target May 2015 for RDR and end up releasing it for the holidays, and that would still be fine. At least analysts and investors would have something they could model for. When people can't even name the next game from this company they're excited for, that's a problem. Everyone knows EA has Titanfall, SW Battlefront, ATVI has Destiny, Ubi has Watch Dogs.
#$%$ does Z do all day, since he apparently doesn't manage the teams or the analysts or the share price?
In other words, you're hoping Zelnick will do something shareholder friendly. That would be a first, wouldn't it?
With no earnings growth other than through share buybacks, major earnings pillars in decline, and no cash ($3BN cash vs $4.5BN debt), why do they deserve a higher P/E than say AAPL? A 10 multiple would drop $5 from the PPS.
This despite news of WoW continuing to lose subs (Netease confirming this in China also yesterday) and CoD selling far behind last years. Maybe Zelnick should force a writedown on GTAV and turn the company profits into a loss, that should get the attention of Wall St. They love bad news a lot more than good news.
Yes I bought VC for PS3 and VC2 for PSP years ago in deep sales, haven't played them yet. Stupid backlog...