They claim $1BN sold-in. They say it's "too early" to talk sell-through, yet they know exactly how many people are playing online and for how long. And for the previous four years in a row, the first CoD sales PR always referenced the first 24-hours sell-through, based on "Chart-Track, retail customer information and internal company estimates". I guess all those sources have somehow disappeared this year.
According to my "estimates", more of my 360 friends have been playing GTAV in the last week than Ghosts and BF4 combined.
Icahn, please give him the third prize.
What a horrible conference call. So much opportunity to reduce share count, give concrete shareholder friendly plans, talk about GTA Online monetization, hint at next gen release, any number of ways they could have sent the stock soaring. Why do they even bother doing a Q&A?
And Ghosts is being discounted. $56 on Amazon now. That has to be a new record, fastest CoD discounting ever! I doubt ATVI will be boasting about that particular metric tonight though.
VGChartz estimates 16M units and $1.15BN retail revenue first week.
Pachter and Colin Sebastian won't be updating any models even though it is soaring past their estimates, because they fear that millions of customers will be so disappointed with this highest rated game ever that they return it, and retailers for some reason make it one of the first games in decades they accept returns for. If that happened, they wouldn't need to update their models.
You are correct. Supposedly for the trade-in of any 360 or PS3 game, no restrictions. I had already been thinking these three had bombed, and I'm not sure there are enough new consoles this year for any of them to meet expectations.
In short, they used to give non-GAAP guidance on current diluted share count. This Q they changed it to include all potential dilution, which robbed shareholders of a headline of nearly $5 EPS guidance and a far bigger beat.
Last Q the FY guidance was for $2.25-$2.50, on diluted share count of 87M. This Q the FY guidance was raised to $3.50-$3.75, but they changed their non-GAAP amount of diluted shares to 129M. As I've said before the 2018 notes aren't currently relevant at these stock prices, since they can't be converted to shares until $27 or 2018, whichever comes first. If they had used the same diluted share count as last Q for non-GAAP guidance, maybe add the 3.2M from the 2014 notes redemption and the 8M for "performance bonuses", the $3.50-$3.75 guidance would become $4.60-$4.95, i.e. over a full buck higher.
I agree Z was doing Icahn a favor, and it was probably arranged in advance that the money raised in June would go to Icahn's shares. However, playing devil's advocate, and I'm not one to defend Z, but an argument could be made that the recent incredibly bad CC, even by Z's incredibly low standards, was in part to prevent the price going higher before buying Icahn's stake.
"Bin Laden raid is great, but has nothing to do with Obama"
He greenlit an operation into foreign sovereign territory with Seals and sensitive equipment, on a 60% chance the guy was there. If that operation had gone south with Seals in prison and helicopters being shown off or sold to China, people like you would be the first to blame Obama. Yet when it goes flawlessly, zero credit.
"it's not his job to step on his studios big product announcements in an equity conference call."
If I were in charge I'd have GTAV for PC in fiscal Q1, for next gen in holidays, and RDR2 in 2015. So let's consider Zelnick and RDR2.
1. He has no clue when RDR2 will be done. BAD CEO.
2. He has an expectation of when it will be done, but no confidence in meeting that target. BAD CEO.
3. He has confidence in a deadline but isn't allowed to announce it to investors because Rockstar runs the show. BAD CEO. If he's only really in charge of the under-performing 2K why are TTWO paying him $2M per year?
4. He has confidence in a deadline, is allowed to tell investors, but chooses to give zero transparency even while days earlier EA is getting a boost from such transparency (we know about Titanfall, Sims, Star Wars, etc.). BAD CEO. Unless you think it's some highly unlikely ploy to deliberately depress the share price, which makes no sense since friends like Icahn can profit from any move when they have inside knowledge of it.
"I like ATVI I feel the 8 billion buyback has not been priced in."
Before buyback, P/E excl cash was about 13. After buyback, it's about 16, and they're now in debt.
He needs to be on Broadway then, because he does a lot of these shows. Don't attribute to design that which is adequately explained by ego and/or stupidity.
If you're betting on a left field announcement you must be short? Because there is a bigger history of Z-bombs at earnings than Z making unexpected bullish announcements. He'll maybe hint that they're "exploring" GTAV for next-gen, and he'll give the usual speech about improving operating performance, guiding for profit in non-GTA years, blah blah blah.
I think some here were talking about RDR's impact on earnings and how the stock responded positively to earnings CC's. Not so much. RDR was released May 2010. From Feb 2010 to Dec 2010 TTWO's guidance and ultimate FY results improved gradually each quarter from -$0.50 to $1.06. In that time, TTWO dropped 25% then rebounded though still under-performed the market. It wasn't until Feb 2011's CC that it bounced more to beat the market.
It should be higher today due to the massive cash flow, and maybe earnings will finally be the catalyst to make it move. Or maybe it'll be yet another time the Kool-Aid gang has been more bullish than everyone else. Because if it doesn't pop on earnings, when will it?
Coincidentally, I've been playing XCOM Enemy Unknown. Bought it last Thanksgiving in a $25 sale and only recently starting it (I really have to resist buying so many game sales at this time of year...). I'm not usually a turn-based strategy fan but it's awesome.
"The problem with believing everything you read on the Internet is that much of it isn't genuine." - Abraham Lincoln.
If they hinted at V for next gen in Xmas 2014, the number of people who want it but haven't bought it, and are willing to wait 13 months, would be very small.
On almost any time frame you pick at random, TTWO under-performs the market, especially when you consider dividends. The market is at all-time highs and TTWO can't even manage a yearly high. A large part of that is the CEO's failure to provide transparency or consistency. Zelnick is content to be the highest paid guy in the industry so he doesn't need the share price to go up. When they are pulling in this much cash from V why is the share count increasing and they aren't buying back any shares? No insider buying, no company buying. This is the time to reduce the share count, so the next 2-3 years will be easier to produce decent EPS results.
The message I hear from Icahn's exit is a sale isn't in consideration soon, and perhaps a willing sale by Z is never. This means a potential acquirer is faced with the EA style hostile buyout scenario, which rules out EA again I think, and might give Kotick pause too.
The Icahn repurchase was done outside of the approved buyback plan, which means the Board must have approved that use of company cash? And who is (was) the Board? Oh yeah, the Icahn's. Even if you approve of buybacks (I do), this is clearly motivated by the insiders using company cash to guarantee themselves a higher exit price, i.e. it's themselves first and shareholders a distant second.
The recent price action once again shows the fingers of insider trading in action, with Icahn and their friends positioning for this. It's good to be King. TTWO bought 4.2M shares in the open market at $17.38 prior to this, of their 7.5M authorization. Coincidence, or were they trying to get a higher price for Icahn's exit?
Why didn't they buy those shares in June at $15, when they knew the quality of GTAV and they must have been planning for that massive launch? We all wondered why TTWO did the $250M convertibles in June when they apparently had no need of it, which increased potential dilution and decreased reported EPS figures for this year, then they sat on the money. I think all along that money was earmarked for Icahn's exit, whatever happened with GTAV and TTWO's share price. That's why they didn't use it to buy shares at cheaper prices in June, which could have saved them at minimum $16M (if they bought the full 7.5M buyback authorization then instead of now).
Your point? BLOPS2 was also on PC and WiiU, and unlike this time last year, WiiU is totally dead. It took 15 days for BLOPS2 to hit $1BN and all signs point to lower interest for this years CoD. Plus it has competition from BF and GTA which didn't exist last year.