How did you manage to write so much yet say so little? Are you a politician? I speak of the issues facing the company, you ignore them and just say it's going higher based on your experience of buying it before a 10% decline.
PT $38.55, from Benchmark today via Mike Hickey. He has covered this space for years.
"As we look forward, we believe their core business model; the physical distribution of hardware, software and used product through a traditional physical retail network, will be increasingly displaced from growing consumer adoption of digital / streaming content distribution channels and the competitive pressure from mobile platforms"
Next gen hype is strong, so ATVI and EA rising despite clear signs that sales of CoD and BF are off 20% or worse from last iterations. Unlike TTWO they have announced specific next gen titles which have hype. In this market it's better to promise profits in the future, no matter how far out that may be, than to actually have profits.
There's no such thing as a non-GTA year, because they always include GTA catalog and other minor skus when they say they're profitable without it. Then there are the big loss years too (after promises of being profitable).
The point I was making about the market is hype and promises trumps value. TTWO could rise 5% on value while the market rises 10% and the no-profit hype companies rise 30%. That's not what I would call a win. Things might be different if the company weren't run by a vampire albatross, dead weight sucking all the money from the host, too busy gorging to bother telling investors what to expect in the future.
"I think Z's team did a great job revamping the company and nurturing new IPs."
If that were true the stock wouldn't be around $17, which is about where it was in Feb 2007 just before he took over and became the highest paid guy in the business. The Nasdaq is up 65% since then. Share count has also exploded since then.
"leaving 1+ billion still "in the bank"."
What? Oh and don't forget to subtract out the debt for the future convertibles due.
It's called Stockholder Syndrome I think. In over 6.5 years Z has the SP exactly where he started, with the market 65% higher. You can make all the back of the envelope comps and excuses you like, at the end of the day it's the SP that matters. If you must compare, then how about back in 2006 when investors were still looking forward to Bioshock, LA Noire, new Max Paynes, new Midnight Clubs, etc. Now, not so much. I mean Bioshock is a good franchise but it's not sending the SP to new highs. RDR was big, though it was already in dev before the $2M per year man came in. Now 3.5 years later we still have no idea when to expect a sequel, while Ubi and ATVI crank out 9M-20M iterations every year.
Who doesn't know all that? Especially Icahn with his inside connections. And if it were all true and looking so good, nobody would be worried about a Z bomb. Hell, how can you defend the guy while casually talking about the existence of the anti-investor phenomenon that Z created?
That deal for Noire always looked like a good old boys deal for the Housers and their buddies. For instance, Team Bondi had a separate company to create the facial tech, which was in essence fully funded by TTWO's funding of Noire, yet TTWO had no claim on that tech, so essentially TTWO were funding the tech and licensing the tech. And conveniently the company doing the facial tech had the same phone number and address as Team Bondi, so it was obviously the same stuff, i.e. TTWO were probably double-paying for billable hours.
Literally the first Google hit after searching for Sam Houser Brendan McNamara produced a Eurogamer article with Brendan saying, "I've known Sam [Houser, co-founder and president of Rockstar Games] for maybe fifteen years. We go a long way."
Where is the conspiracy theory? Did Team Bondi have any funding other than Rockstar? Did Rockstar have any ownership of the company McNamara created to do the facial tech? Did that company share the same address and phone number as Team Bondi?
For someone who presumably claims to be a lawyer, your ability to interpret timelines and to communicate without childish insults is woefully lacking.
According to you if Sam and Brendan weren't friendly in 2011 then they can't have been friendly in 2006 when the deal was signed. Sounds like made up BS.
When Rockstar were funding TB, who was funding the Depth Analysis company at the same address? Was it LA Noire money? Would it have been easy for people to be on the Noire payroll and also be working at the other private company Brendan part owned? If TTWO were indirectly funding the tech company why didn't they have any ownership of it? Were TTWO paying a licensing fee too, for tech their Noire money created? It's not illegal so it's OK if TTWO got fleeced, is what you're saying. And you wonder why this stock goes nowhere while you are here year after year after year after year defending it.
And once again on this board I am accused of lying and once again the basis for that claim is found wanting. I will remind you that you were the one who claimed it was "made up BS" that Sam and Brendan were friends when the deal was signed, despite the fact Sam talked of their "longstanding mutual respect" in 2006 and Brendan said they "go way back... 15 years". So did they hate each other when Rockstar gave them such a sweet deal, or did they not know each other at all, or were they friends?
CoD Ghosts and BF4 both look to be about 25% down from their previous versions, despite more platforms. GTAV still doing well though, Amazon mentioned it today as one of their top 3 VG sellers of the holiday season.
Did Steam exist last year? Oh yeah, it did. So you're dreaming if you think additional YoY sales there will provide the growth to offset a decline of multiple million console sales. There's a reason why ATVI used "sell-in" this year instead of "sell-through" for the last few years, and there's a reason why EA boasted about early BF3 sales and has been silent on BF4. And it isn't because they are breaking records.
You're just making stuff up. How many users did Steam add the year before and how did that impact sales of these games? How many new iOS users are there? How many 360's were sold? How many bananas did Walmart sell? Who cares, do anything except look at the sales data of the games when talking about the sales of the games, right?
Steam is a great service. Your 10M digital PC prediction first year sounds a bit high compared to the PC split GTAIV had (retail + digital combined), but it's normal on this board for predictions to be high.
I'm saying his assertion that Ghosts and BF4 are having record breaking years because "Steam!", with nothing to back up his claims, comes across like pumping. For some reason Steam will be many millions of units higher than last year, while data for 360+XB1+PS3+PS4 which include pent-up demand etc. and millions of additional console sales shows their game sales are running about 25% below previous iterations. And the publishers are for some reason silent about their record breaking total sales and record breaking digital sales. Whenever there is any hint of bad news saying "Steam!" does not magically make it all better.
Modders have ruined it. Lobbies are full of people giving away hundreds of millions, or setting $2BN bounties. Forums are full of people talking about it. Reddit had an article showing how easy it is to "hack", which suggests amazing incompetence on the part of Rockstar, who took 2 months to actually get the cash working and then allowed modders to run rampant.