TTWO's funding was a minority share of $20M which had 5 investors, so probably $5M plus or minus a bit. They were third round financing, which means lower risk and lower reward. They bought in 11 months ago after Twitch was already announced for XB1 and PS4, and Twitch was already well established at the time with 45M monthly visitors, now 55M. The question is what was Twitch worth 11 months ago? The idea that some think Twitch was worth $100M then and $1BN now seems optimistic to me.
No, perhaps that went over your head. The reason it's a different situation is that a large % of PS4 owners had never been exposed to TLOU before, which would increase interest in TLOUR. OTOH, I'd guess almost 100% of XB1/PS4 owners have been exposed to GTAV before.
This Q's results were only a surprise to anyone who didn't follow the sector at all. We've seen NPD and Watch Dog PR's etc. which all pointed to revenue being ahead of guidance.
I see used game margins dropped, and will likely drop more after the recent introduction of higher payments for inventory. I also see from reading games forums a high digital attach rate for new games like Diablo 3, sold via the Sony Store.
Re TLOUR's success, it isn't exactly the same situation as GTAV. First of all, sales of original TLOU show a lot of people missed out on it the first time. Second, a Nielsen study estimated one third of PS4 owners did not have a PS3 but did have 360 or Wii, so a large % of PS4 owners will have been seeing TLOU for the first time on PS4. IIRC Sony has also talked up how many people have been upgrading from other consoles.
NPD reported weak software sales again last night. Delayed reaction to used game margin hit. Ongoing concern over EA Access, PS Now, and any number of other digital related news. Take your pick.
Did you really just take a comment about industry wide sales for the year, and reply with a single company's % of revenue for a single quarter, like that means something? Fine, if you insist on being dumb about it, for that same quarter, TTWO's most recent,
$125.4M revenue for 2014, and $142.6M revenue for the 2013 quarter. Wow, it's like the physical sales are down and the digital sales are up but not enough to offset the decline. Huh, that sounds familiar, oh yeah it's what you were replying to.
If my count is correct, software YTD is down 14% from last year, and only 1 month in 7 has been positive, and the full year will likely end up negative. OTOH I'm sure full game digital sales will be higher, but not by enough to offset that gap.
Who cares? This is about GME's used business. It will cripple it for EA's games. And if the sub participants buy digital thanks to early access, that's even worse for GME - lost sale and lost used game churn.
CYNK +60% today to $2.75BN marketcap. I blame Berbanke and $ellen for the easy money driving malinvestment and risk bubbles such as this.
Both have $1.75BN marketcap. TTWO has history, strong franchises, earnings, lots of cash. CYNK had $39 in assets last Q (no M's or K's missing there), no revenue, no website, no product, and one single employee doing "social media development". You can't make this stuff up. Well done Berbanke and $ellen...
If hypothetically a company is nearly finished development then a large delay happens, it's almost certainly incompetence or lying. And it's happened often enough at TTWO that incompetence is stretching it.
Sure everyone has delayed a software product at some time. Few have done it so frequently as TTWO, or with such consequences to their earnings as TTWO. Z made himself about $12M thanks to that, when after he joined TTWO he conveniently delayed getting his 2M options grant, while reassuring investors GTAIV was on schedule with just a few weeks of development left, then he announced the game was delayed which killed the FY, resulting in him getting his options priced around $14 instead of $20.
Perhaps the question of why that release date was chosen by TTWO should have been asked earlier, since the release dates of all the other AAA tent-poles you mentioned were already known at the time of the announcement. Even BF Hardline, which at the time of 2K's announcement wasn't official, was rumored to be a holiday release. If it doesn't release on last-gen this year, a better question would be why develop it at all?
As I said, announcing a release date that near the end of development and then delaying it would be tantamount to lying IMO, and it's interesting that you are not only open to that, you seem to welcome it.
If they were to announce a game in April, promise it for October, then delay it out of the year, IMO that's lying to shareholders.
As for next gen port, that doesn't mean the 360/PS3 versions should get delayed, and why bother releasing those at all in 2015? Instead they could do what many other devs have done, release an upgraded version for PS4/XB1 later, like Tomb Raider, Metro, Last of Us, Diablo 3, GTAV, etc.
ttw, we had a conversation a while back where SeekingAlpha was mentioned. You cut and pasted a story and gave a username/password to use. I just wanted to say thanks for that effort, albeit belatedly.
Isn't that a higher penetration rate than 360/PS3 had, and many of these PS4/XB1 owners will have already played it?
There will be significant re-purchase. My early guess is 4M-6M sold this holiday season on the new consoles. Personally I'm probably going to pass on it. I 100% the SP already and got bored of the MP. If there were additional paid content out which was getting bundled with the PS4 version, that would have been more tempting.