CYNK +60% today to $2.75BN marketcap. I blame Berbanke and $ellen for the easy money driving malinvestment and risk bubbles such as this.
Both have $1.75BN marketcap. TTWO has history, strong franchises, earnings, lots of cash. CYNK had $39 in assets last Q (no M's or K's missing there), no revenue, no website, no product, and one single employee doing "social media development". You can't make this stuff up. Well done Berbanke and $ellen...
If hypothetically a company is nearly finished development then a large delay happens, it's almost certainly incompetence or lying. And it's happened often enough at TTWO that incompetence is stretching it.
Sure everyone has delayed a software product at some time. Few have done it so frequently as TTWO, or with such consequences to their earnings as TTWO. Z made himself about $12M thanks to that, when after he joined TTWO he conveniently delayed getting his 2M options grant, while reassuring investors GTAIV was on schedule with just a few weeks of development left, then he announced the game was delayed which killed the FY, resulting in him getting his options priced around $14 instead of $20.
Perhaps the question of why that release date was chosen by TTWO should have been asked earlier, since the release dates of all the other AAA tent-poles you mentioned were already known at the time of the announcement. Even BF Hardline, which at the time of 2K's announcement wasn't official, was rumored to be a holiday release. If it doesn't release on last-gen this year, a better question would be why develop it at all?
As I said, announcing a release date that near the end of development and then delaying it would be tantamount to lying IMO, and it's interesting that you are not only open to that, you seem to welcome it.
If they were to announce a game in April, promise it for October, then delay it out of the year, IMO that's lying to shareholders.
As for next gen port, that doesn't mean the 360/PS3 versions should get delayed, and why bother releasing those at all in 2015? Instead they could do what many other devs have done, release an upgraded version for PS4/XB1 later, like Tomb Raider, Metro, Last of Us, Diablo 3, GTAV, etc.
ttw, we had a conversation a while back where SeekingAlpha was mentioned. You cut and pasted a story and gave a username/password to use. I just wanted to say thanks for that effort, albeit belatedly.
Isn't that a higher penetration rate than 360/PS3 had, and many of these PS4/XB1 owners will have already played it?
There will be significant re-purchase. My early guess is 4M-6M sold this holiday season on the new consoles. Personally I'm probably going to pass on it. I 100% the SP already and got bored of the MP. If there were additional paid content out which was getting bundled with the PS4 version, that would have been more tempting.
Who's ignoring GTA? Two weeks ago I said, "I still expect GTAV PS4/XB1 this holiday season". You posted in this topic about Twitch, I posted, then you turned into a 10 year old for some reason.
This topic is related to Twitch. You posted drivel, I posted information, you attacked me for posting information, and now you're lying ("you already said would bring in at most $5million"). Like I said, stay classy Spec.
Other IP's are getting stronger... like Bioshock and Max Payne? Oh right, Bioshock is "planned" aka not necessarily in development now or ever. I remember the DLC argument being used after GTAIV's launch too.
Spec says past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but neither does hopium.
It's so obvious TTWO has been traded on inside info many times in the past, and I bet Icahn (and friends?) have been in on that.
In non-GTA years, non-GAAP:
FY09 Guidance was $0.00-$0.20, result was ($1.12), so a miss of up to $1.32.
FY10 (RDR) Guidance was ($0.40-$0.60), result was $1.06.
FY12 Guidance was $0.10-$0.35, result was ($0.71), so a miss of up to $1.06.
FY13 Guidance was $2.00-$2.25, result was $0.36, so a miss of up to $1.89. (GTAV delayed)
As you can see, an enormous amount of over promise and under deliver, with one exception when RDR surprised to the upside. Still, for those four FY's with RDR included, that's an average of ($0.10).
Isn't Agent a R* North game? Surely everyone there was drafted onto GTAV for a long time, so I wouldn't expect Agent in 2015. I still expect GTAV PS4/XB1 this holiday season, and a chance of RDR 2015, and I wouldn't believe any Agent release date until we see a lot of gameplay and coverage. You know how R* tends to delay its games by up to two years after the first announced release date. It's also possible there's something TBA from R*, but again, see above re "deadlines".
Not sure why you bring up console prices, when 360/PS3 cost more at launch. You said, "software tends to sell in proportion to the hardware sales", which means 100% more consoles should mean 100% more games sold, right? But it's nowhere close to that.
So let me ask you then, how many PS4/XB1's would need to be sold compared to PS3/360's in the same time frame, before sales of games double? Three times as many consoles? Ten times as many consoles? One hundred times as many consoles?