I remember recently saying that Bio Infinite didn't set the world on fire, and commented it was being given away for free less than a year after launch. Now the studio is being closed down. Oh well, there goes another franchise.
Sure, why don't you try putting on that thinking cap?
"the PS4 is selling so hot that it is currently outpacing the legendary PS2. Although the xbone sales are disappointing, the xbone is actually outselling the xbox 360 at this point in the x360's lifetime"
"What are the reasons software is down 26%? Well for one, no one released any significant new products at all January."
The only new game in last years top 10 was DmC at #6. So that was the reason sales were down 26% this year, no Devil may Cry, right. But wait, you said consoles are flying off the shelves. The main reason to own a PS4 or XB1 is if you intend to game on them, so all of those console buyers must be buying games. And yet still, software down 26%. I guess Devil may Cry must have been a much bigger hit than the history books said it was.
You just said basically the same thing I said, which you called "doom and gloom". Except for one thing, you lied about teen/adult games looking pretty good. Other than GTAV, they've not looked that good at all. Software down 26% last month isn't me posting some opinion. ATVI and EA not talking sales figures for franchises they used to boast about sales figures isn't my opinion, it's fact.
Comparing the sales of new consoles to earlier cycles is pointless IMO because earlier cycles were much more supply constrained. First holiday season MS shipped 1.5M 360's, compared to well over 3M XB1's. We can say with certainty that supply is higher this time, but just because sales are also higher does not prove demand is higher. And even if it did, the software sales tell their own story, and that is down.
If Z had accepted the buyout offer then Icahn and others wouldn't have had a chance to make another 70% on the next "Oops, earnings turned out to be much worse than we expected" Z-bomb, followed by the next GTA. Icahn has played this stock multiple times, and that party would have stopped. Just saying.
XB1 has been in stock everywhere since early December I think, and as you said it's been discounted $20 in places. And last I checked last night, MS wouldn't say how many they sold in January. If there's one thing that can be counted on, if sales are good, publishers will talk about them. Like when ATVI talked about sell through for CoD games before Ghosts, or when EA talked about BF3 sales but never mentions BF4.
I've seen a Titanfall sales estimate as high as 10M, for an online only no SP game, on a next gen platform (+ 360) which is getting crushed by Sony. I guess the analysts will forecast 5M XB1's sold in March, whatever it takes to goal seek their stock pumping forecast.
Who is buying the PS4 and XB1? It's people who already own PS3 and 360. Like myself, I own PS3 and 360 and bought PS4. I don't suddenly have more time or money or purchase intent for gaming, nothing has changed there. That's zero growth.
Apparently that's the same situation with many new console buyers since the pattern of software sales is still weak. You can't put a spin on games like CoD Ghosts, BF4, ACIV, being on more platforms and selling less than their previous iteration.
I think the analysts forget too that last cycle the price of games jumped 20% months after launch. This cycle, no such revenue/margins gain, other than the margins boost of a higher shift to digital.
Dismal results for the sector. Software down 26%, MS won't say how many Bones they sold even though they were in stock everywhere all month long, though Sony claimed they sold nearly twice as many PS4's.
The problem with Bully is your target market is small. Games like GTA and RDR are about wish fulfillment, running amok relatively consequence free, being a total bad#$%$, hugely violent, fast cars, Clint Eastwood, M rated, etc. Obviously a game set in a school can't be that violent, so what is the market? College age and teenagers immersed in CoD and GTA? Nope. Older gamers? Doubtful. Younger? They are probably on other platforms.
Sure it can be a solid seller and somewhat profitable with the R* product quality and name brand, but beyond that is being optimistic. The resources would be better spent on getting more GTA and RDR product out sooner. Or do another Manhunt, it would probably be more successful than another Bully.
But just yesterday you were posting multiple times about imminent announcements that would send this into the $20's, and this morning you have sold most of your shares. Hmmm, interesting.
You have described an apple and an orange, then rhetorically asked if they are the same thing.
Btw his Apple position was up over 20% recently, in less than six months of holding.
Using the term "herp derp" repeatedly makes you sound like a child, which I assume you are not, since you have been pumping this stock day in day out since... well, forever it seems. Since Z took over, Nasdaq +73%, TTWO + whatever amount it rose in the last week. Golf cap for the highest paid guy in the biz, and for the permabull defenders of such mediocrity.
Icahn not an insider, are you for real? He's known Zelnick for years and helped him get in at TTWO. He got three of his cronies on the Board, including his son. The suggestion that he has no more info than you or I is ludicrous.
"Under his watch, they have developed a lot more solid franchises than they had in the past"
Such as? Because under his watch, Max Payne's future looks in doubt, Midnight Club is dead, the last Bioshock didn't exactly set the world on fire either.
"he's avoided sinking tons of money into social and mobile gaming (cough, cough, EA)"
He's done virtually nothing. He's the most overpaid guy in the business and he has done nothing to improve R* schedules, or 2K quality (latest XCOM, which was also very late), or earnings consistency, and has done nothing for the stock since he arrived 7 years ago.
"he bought a stake in Twitch which looks like it's about to blow up"
That is good, although I don't think you should be encouraging the failed CEO to be a hedge fund manager with what's left of GTA's money.
The market is within a couple % of all-time highs, and many stocks are at 52-week highs, up day after day. Nothing unusual about TTWO when seen in the context of the market. There are no shortage of bullish and bearish theses at these prices.
I don't share Rod's confidence in a $12 target but I wouldn't rule it out either. Same way I don't share the confidence of those who constantly see mid $20's soon.
Over the next two years we can expect ATVI to deliver about $2.50 and EA about $2.50-$3.50, with a limited risk of earnings being below $2.50 over that time for either company. What about TTWO? It's a guessing game, and that breeds volatility, and volatility breeds questions about what "they" might know that we don't. Or perhaps everyone is just guessing whether earnings will total $1 or $2 or $3 next two years combined.
It doesn't bother me personally. I'm just intrigued by the mentality of the fools who do it. The information is still valid and still applicable, even if they try to discourage others from seeing it. Who in this stock market ruled by insiders and bots would rather have less information? It's very odd.
Typical TTWO board. Information gets thumbs down because information isn't welcome. Head in sand works best.
A couple of points about this Evolve hype, since you would think from reading posts here that the L4D team is making it.
1. Didn't every publisher have a chance to buy it? But somehow TTWO was the only one that saw the diamond and got it cheap? Anyway...
2. L4D1 was started by Turtle Rock, and finished with Valve's assistance. Later, Valve brought on the majority of TR's staff to Valve and closed Turtle Rock because it was by then too small to justify keeping open. Some time later, the Turtle Rock founder re-opened the studio to make casual games, then started re-hiring for what is now Evolve.
While it's technically true that the name of the Turtle Rock studio is a common link from L4D to Evolve, it's not like it's a case of the L4D team is now the Evolve team.