And as predicted we end up negative for the day. Cjdbs, this stock has turned into a dead smelly fish. I will be selling it. There is no upside to this. Stockloser made a great suggestion, sell Radian and buy MTG. That is what I plan to do with some of the 2013 profits if it holds until the first of January. Better upside.
These nice market rallies tell the story for Radian. The investment community has lost interest. It is clear that the MI business is not what it once was and will never be again. Plowing money into Radian at this point will not give investors much future return. This has been a spectacular year and probably the best it will see for a long time. Now it will only trade sideways and if history repeats itself, S.A. and the the crew will some how muck it up.
Seriously, there has been nothing, zilch out of Radian that could even give the slight impression that the future is bright. Competition is now their fear when all along we were hoodwinked into thinking Radian is the competition. My only hope is that Radian holds out until the first of January before the almost certain plunge. This stock has peaked. Holding till January.
Radian refuses to participate in the rally. Was up significantly only to come back down. Will be negative by the end of the day. Critical period, 99.9% sure if the market turns into a bear market, Radian will be pushed down. Thanks for the holiday present S.A. You've lost all your believers since you lost your belief.
MTG and GNW will be the play for 2014. Such a shame, could have been a $20 stock. No shot now.
I've been long for some time, though I was once short. However, the realization is that Radian probably has peaked. The market continually moves up and Radian does not participate. It's been August since the Radian rally hit the stop sign. Now it seems to be simply a day traders stock.
Today the market is again up significantly and Radian again refuses to participate. S.A., in my opinion, killed any hopes for Radian to gain during the last earnings report. Radian still is only 25% of what it once was. Sure we had a killer year (mostly due to CNBC's pumparama) but the days of a $20, $30, $40 or $50 stock is light years away if ever. And...if the market suddenly and consistently tanked, well Radian would be playing in single digits again.
I hate to be such a downer but realistically there is nothing, at least that I can see, that will provide the spark to ignite this thing, especially when S.A. is running this ship. My plan is to take my 2013 profits the first week of January. Heck, even Bernie, EX and the old timers have gone deep silent.
Happy holidays to whomever is still hanging around!
Market up 199, Goldman buy rating, housing the best since 2006 and Radian down. Monthly data was ho-hum and bored investors. The fear is that S.A. is correct, competition is taking away market share. Even the dudes on the video at Motley Fool were ho-hum on both Radian and MTG. No spark no fire. Eventually profitable may take an eternity and with the ultra conservative Radian they will not even hint at a positive future, just hope. Maybe time to cash in 2013 profits after the 1st? Just not sure what can "squeeze" this lemon at this point. Other more attractive stocks such as doughnuts and burritos.
New home sales have been on an impressive ride however, Radian stays status quo. Since earnings we have recovered slightly but are stuck in this trading range and have been for some time and will be for some time to come. $20 is as far as the earth to mars thanks to the last earnings conference call when S.A. buzz killed the ride. Doughnuts, burritos and travel seem to be the power stocks (and they all have competition). MI stocks seems to be for day traders. Go figure. Now I got to go eat a burrito and book a flight.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't get it? Sure I am not happy with S.A.'s flubbing of the earnings call but why would him buying 5,000 shares screw shareholders? If anything I am pleased since he has been by far the largest purchaser of stock over any other executive over the years. So I am pleased to see he is still stepping up to the plate. I would like to see the CFO purchase some shares. You must have a chip on your shoulder EDI. Get over it.
Just an early holiday present from S.A. He is a scrooge and does not want any of his investors to be happy. So now we can't buy toys for the little girls and boys!
Seriously, I did not see this coming. I was not expecting anything spectacular from earnings but never thought it would be bad. And S.A. blows it by being a big downer. Ummm, there is competition everywhere. Priceline has competition and its a $1,000 stock. Chipotle has competition and its a $500 stock. Twitter is just typing 140 characters, fighting for advertising dollars and its a $40 plus stock its first day. Google $1,000 stock.
I'm losing confidence in Radian and have no idea where its going from here or how it will even get back to the $14-$15 range? I was once short, maybe that is the way to go again. I'm just not sure at this point.
Happy Holidays S.A.
Well...We are arriving a little earlier than expected. Radian briefly hit $15 today and yes, my prediction was correct. You are welcome!
It's not been a great few days for Radian. Of course the government issues are one reason but the monthly report was a little weak. NIW was down and not much of a dent in reducing delinquencies. This quarters earnings will be especially important for us long Radian investors and it is about time for a blowout earnings report. However, with the climate right now, I'm not so sure and may be off on my 45 day $15 prediction. Probably safe to say, hunker down.
I posted this on August 21st. Guess what, we are still running in place as of October 2nd. However, I still expect Radian to be $15+ by mid November.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Each week Radian pushes into the $14 range only to be pressed back down. How much longer will this last? Not much. The lava is getting hot and the volcano is about to erupt. I expect new highs and $15+ within the next 45 days.