Raised to 58.61. The psychology on this now is two -to three more legs follows in the D wave (I'm not the only one - article over the weekend). This also intersects the idea of the spinning top on the last day of the year (the fuzziness is wearing away). Stick with it. Vixers will have to wait for these to complete. 20% hits 80, 5% hits 100. Buy some select stocks and take gains in late December holiday until proven otherwise, this gives way for FED to make adjustment Jan 27th. Gotta go.
The move to $41 wasn't the 20% selloff, however, it raises the chances of 60% it hits $60. Raise stops along the way up and you can't lose here. 12-31-15 has a crosshair on it now. Out!
GDX to float around 15.90 (these guys want you to get out before tomorrow). Move VIX to 14 area, the market has legs before Nov. 3rd. Stay on the right side of the trade (be flexible). Out!
On NVCR, take some back at 30 and let it drop 25%, take a position in PSTG as well. LOYS, I really like one of your penny bios (I give it 3 weeks - 200%). Out!
58.06 would be my next target (look for a hard reversal after lunch today). I would not play UVXY/TVIX now on the earlier date - wait till after for something to brew - i.e., debt ceiling in early November. Looking at Shanghai to return to 4000 quickly - follow DAX as well for export markets. Liking the software contracts in November and the possible window of M&A moves in Bios this December. Follow the template of 2000/2008 to a get a median - there you will find 3 algos and one nice band to play off of into February (right after FED).
LOYS, I believe it now in a 30% chance of $70 in NUGT. Moving the JNUG short to $65. Expect to see 20% sell off when it closes in on $55.80 - be advised this one has stronger technicals than originally thought (It's hard to throw out there that this thing could go from $26 to $70 and say you want to short it as well - my bad).
As long as you picked up the idea after the split & the report below $30 then there should be no complaints!
My feet aren't even wet yet and I'm fielding emails cause they missed 50% of the move - folks forgot, I don't work for anybody & don't want or need clients - go directly to the trash bin. Got to go, Out!
PREM, don't let anyone chastise your trades - we have to be constructively working together on this board - all of us should make some nice coin. I know your looking at TVIX, I still say look at VIX posting that 16 number (that's the target) and then 1700, 15% rebound, then the '16 plan. Happy Trading!
Clear up the confusion - First, I didn't think NUGT was gonna hit the target so fast, but since that has been accomplished lets go over a few things I said, what I meant, and tie them into timeline now. With all splits, remarkable things can happen and these are primarily due to the multitude of options contracts that are unsettled, not only with the underlying ETF's but also with the investment ratios made in the select companies and there unsettled contracts as well, respectively. Take a look at JNUG's split occurring in late December of 2014 and the price action that ensued thereafter and now look at the transparative on NUGT's course the last 4 days - it's not all straight up, but rather an elongated path to 110 - 120%, and then the repetitive path to decay. NUGT and JNUG are in a short path to increased pps and the variables are on it's side currently outweigh the variables against it.
I'd say a 50% chance it going over $60, 70% it going over $50. I am going to use a strategy of shorting JNUG above $55 (that means not buy JDST - that means shorting JNUG), I plan on holding the short until August '16 or when I feel it is deemed necessary to close it (so if it goes over $80, I don't panic, I short more).
Up to or just after the 16th (next Friday), I will decide to re-enter the 9 or re-enter DUST for a short term bounce (we will have to see). Keep in mind NUGT can sell off 20% in a day, but the overall 15-day trend could and/or should stay intact.
As to the Bill Gross comment - I believe he is referring to the 1700 mark I had been talking about. What is remarkable about the chart and the last downturn is the 5mo/10d mark and how this time would mean a date of 31 Dec (I'll explain later).
Lastly, got a question on NVCR and Cramer's comments on it last night - I say go for it - throw it in a portfolio and add to your liking - he will probably have CEO on in a few weeks time. Out!
That's an obvious, JNUG re-weighting EOD - going into spin mode? I got someone to send that out tonight. Gotta catch flight, weather gonna get bad so meeting up to drive 3 states/5 cities over. Out again till next Thurs.
My guess is NUGT/JNUG into 8th, flip house profits into TVIX. Point was to gain positioning as part of the '16 plan (use the 7.45% rolling plan and the rest accordingly). Don't get greedy, take 40%.
LOYS, after this report buy TVIX into 18-19 (add more RUSS/SOXS/TZA), buy NUGT into $42 (then short it), buy SLV then sell it on the 16th. DGAZ looks great, (the long chart spells out spinning top all the way in $15, then reverse it). GNRC was an idea to play off of - this may not pan out until ER on 28th (I wouldn't worry about playing it, it was just a matter of conversation).
Going back to the scenario, since NUGT didn't tank before split, the B/S ratio is telling they want to run this off into the $40's (probably Oct 16th).
I'll send an observation about 99/2000 and 07/08 comparables - 1700 SPX is the my target before a mini spinner. Always be flexible but have conviction on how this plays out in its entirety. Out!
GNRC (who remembers the market closed for a few days in late Oct '12). This got attention for their tech and specific location of East Coast customer base (ran up 80%). Now up 10% in two days, should continue to $39-42 if the storm continues intensity up the coastline. This is just a trade via relevancy plus hype - ie. get out at peak +dm60, on adx50, 5 day/5 min. UGAZ/DGAZ did not participate as far as any lopsided trading.
Also to note, SOXS soaking up for higher land as well as TZA/FAZ(this 1-4 split today). What does that tell you. Out!
Thanks, another one will be to short nugt, jnug and gasl. These will split tomorrow and may run up a few days. My opinion is, "so what." I will short these in several spots and close them next August. I believe the setup is late Jan/early Feb for VIX products to be in full force (miners & their bankers will not immune, regardless of gold prices of anything under $2,000 .
Not every day tells the complete story, but the cumulation of these events leads into the scenario we assumed will form.
As far as LJPC, it's no longer trade for me. It might get whacked real hard in a market downturn, again I say, "so what," these are the ones we hold onto and/or build into for that day.
Today is over bunions, really? Just be happy your a senior shareholder in not just one. Own them all.
Going over last scenario per discussion, I believe that will most likely take shape. The 1, 3 & 10 year notches say 50% move in 2 or 3-weeks, then the beat down ensues. On DWTI comment follow OIH, BNO (you can see inv date on Oct 15th, exp date Oct 16th is the possible set up for next wave - that matches up with leveraged commodity instrument moves - same thing that happened two days before last Fed Mtg). BZQ, RUSS, YANG just continue. Spinning Top comes somewhere into play Nov, Dec, Jan, then Jan 27th.
So 1700 has to now fit in between Oct 16th and Nov 4th-12th (that fits in exp date on Nov 18th and the 10 trading days into holiday hype - so as a guess, that would be launch point - i.e., focus on the numbers less than the calendar comes into play). Outta here till next Wed! GLTA
LOYS, I would screw with too much from a penny perspective. These ETFS are easy trading vehicles. VIXERS will continue to move higher into the deadline. I'd say VIX can get to 36+ if you get that northward curl tomorrow. Buy it first thing in the morning, on the 30th, sell 1/2 VIX holdings & buy XIV on the 30th. If the agreement get through late into Tuesday night you won't lose that 1/2 and flip into the next position. Easy Stuff. Par those moves with GLD/SLV/PLAT positions in the miners.
Bloomberg did a great piece on the similarity of noble affairs within desperate countries and executives milking the companies who are headed for default. The case of VW and BAC today explains the arrogance of some corporate leadership. These are the things that repeat itself and come to light - more frequently after such years of inflated capex, cheap cash - "when times are good most don't pay attention, when they are bad everybody will notice - i.e. bull market run up a long hill, bear markets fall off cliffs - Worldcom, AIG, Enron, et cetera. It's coming!