That's an obvious, JNUG re-weighting EOD - going into spin mode? I got someone to send that out tonight. Gotta catch flight, weather gonna get bad so meeting up to drive 3 states/5 cities over. Out again till next Thurs.
My guess is NUGT/JNUG into 8th, flip house profits into TVIX. Point was to gain positioning as part of the '16 plan (use the 7.45% rolling plan and the rest accordingly). Don't get greedy, take 40%.
LOYS, after this report buy TVIX into 18-19 (add more RUSS/SOXS/TZA), buy NUGT into $42 (then short it), buy SLV then sell it on the 16th. DGAZ looks great, (the long chart spells out spinning top all the way in $15, then reverse it). GNRC was an idea to play off of - this may not pan out until ER on 28th (I wouldn't worry about playing it, it was just a matter of conversation).
Going back to the scenario, since NUGT didn't tank before split, the B/S ratio is telling they want to run this off into the $40's (probably Oct 16th).
I'll send an observation about 99/2000 and 07/08 comparables - 1700 SPX is the my target before a mini spinner. Always be flexible but have conviction on how this plays out in its entirety. Out!
GNRC (who remembers the market closed for a few days in late Oct '12). This got attention for their tech and specific location of East Coast customer base (ran up 80%). Now up 10% in two days, should continue to $39-42 if the storm continues intensity up the coastline. This is just a trade via relevancy plus hype - ie. get out at peak +dm60, on adx50, 5 day/5 min. UGAZ/DGAZ did not participate as far as any lopsided trading.
Also to note, SOXS soaking up for higher land as well as TZA/FAZ(this 1-4 split today). What does that tell you. Out!
Thanks, another one will be to short nugt, jnug and gasl. These will split tomorrow and may run up a few days. My opinion is, "so what." I will short these in several spots and close them next August. I believe the setup is late Jan/early Feb for VIX products to be in full force (miners & their bankers will not immune, regardless of gold prices of anything under $2,000 .
Not every day tells the complete story, but the cumulation of these events leads into the scenario we assumed will form.
As far as LJPC, it's no longer trade for me. It might get whacked real hard in a market downturn, again I say, "so what," these are the ones we hold onto and/or build into for that day.
Today is over bunions, really? Just be happy your a senior shareholder in not just one. Own them all.
Going over last scenario per discussion, I believe that will most likely take shape. The 1, 3 & 10 year notches say 50% move in 2 or 3-weeks, then the beat down ensues. On DWTI comment follow OIH, BNO (you can see inv date on Oct 15th, exp date Oct 16th is the possible set up for next wave - that matches up with leveraged commodity instrument moves - same thing that happened two days before last Fed Mtg). BZQ, RUSS, YANG just continue. Spinning Top comes somewhere into play Nov, Dec, Jan, then Jan 27th.
So 1700 has to now fit in between Oct 16th and Nov 4th-12th (that fits in exp date on Nov 18th and the 10 trading days into holiday hype - so as a guess, that would be launch point - i.e., focus on the numbers less than the calendar comes into play). Outta here till next Wed! GLTA
LOYS, I would screw with too much from a penny perspective. These ETFS are easy trading vehicles. VIXERS will continue to move higher into the deadline. I'd say VIX can get to 36+ if you get that northward curl tomorrow. Buy it first thing in the morning, on the 30th, sell 1/2 VIX holdings & buy XIV on the 30th. If the agreement get through late into Tuesday night you won't lose that 1/2 and flip into the next position. Easy Stuff. Par those moves with GLD/SLV/PLAT positions in the miners.
Bloomberg did a great piece on the similarity of noble affairs within desperate countries and executives milking the companies who are headed for default. The case of VW and BAC today explains the arrogance of some corporate leadership. These are the things that repeat itself and come to light - more frequently after such years of inflated capex, cheap cash - "when times are good most don't pay attention, when they are bad everybody will notice - i.e. bull market run up a long hill, bear markets fall off cliffs - Worldcom, AIG, Enron, et cetera. It's coming!
LOYS, if the market starts to fade other than these global events and more on the U.S. Gov. Shutdown, then I can see where NUGT fades around the same numbers JNUG did last year (December) before splitting around the $1.80 level. If that's true and they give the extension, then that's is where my scenario for JNUG/NUGT to run up into the $40"s after the split - then short it (hands-over-fist) till they split x2, possibly in Spring and one in Autumn. When I'm back full-time, we'll start clicking better - I got 2 more events to attend to before the 15th. You can always email ? to D-Mac or Arty until we get fully going this season. Out!
Can't take this Clinton seriously (delirious or just in it now for campaign freebies now). VIXERS (30+) are the play up to Wednesday's deadline (media will start pumping that story harder Thursday night).
IMO, LJPC is a long-term hold and no longer just a trade, regardless LJPC could very well see below $28's next Tuesday. It's not that the stock is bad, it's the market selloff and/or players letting some go to get in the cheaper price for time being. (It bucked against the trend last time due to secondary that most of us knew as unplanned - blame underwriters - just a different scenario).
This is my ICPT target, would be smart to buy this out before LJPC announces a breakthrough and demands a $5B price tag. I fully expect a bidding war in M&A cycle (Winter '16 or Spring '17) STXS is the one that should be getting attention as these procedures get more adoption (MAKO) - steady under a buck, why?
All I'm saying is be flexible. You know these splits have a special way of re-balancing by way of shenanigans. If GDX miraculously tops out at $15 then there NUGT hits around $4.13 x 10 = $41.30. Today the market and commodities are depressed so it's hard to dispute what would change things - VW scandal doesn't help nor does the refugee influx into soc-eco euro climate - not to mention glencore debacle unfolding (did you hear about the off-shore tanker deal floating in the Caribbean).
Stick to accumulating RUSS, BZQ, YANG makes more sense and buying VIXERS into Oct 1st.
I would be much more comfortable shorting NUGT after these split occur. I know what happened last December into mid-January, however, the 3 & 10 year chart show this will really tank once these splits go into effect and probably split again in February for a capitulation encore next July. Also I still have S&P to hit 1700 (could it be the shutdown), 15% retrace higher (EOY spinning top), then 860 (global financial scandals or central bank meltdowns via defaults, i.e., the can is back).
DWTI/DGAZ and the rest of the band of 8, you know my opinion. IBB, HACK, VNQ are the only ones I plan on buying next Autumn.
Going back to VIXERS, once the government shutdown gets their extension (which they should, Obama knows he can spin it to make Congress look incompetent again - Politics) get out with a profit and buy XIV for a few days in the reverse. Again, be flexible. Next week will all about the volatility going back over 30, I was talking 14-16 during the spinning top scenario. Swings rule the days till then.
LOYS, to answer your email, buy RUSS, BZQ, YANG on weakness, those are not pulling back hard enough on down days and rising 2-3% higher on up days (they are entering into the next phase - just drifting for now). Wait for VIX to hit between 14 -to 16 and get in TVIX/UVXY, when it bounces to a high +DM, take 3/4ths out and wait for the move again (Use money the house gives you)!!! It hit 17.97 and bounced, technically a swing trade all the way. I still see a SPY spinning top to form by years end, so the vixer trades are on again, off again until late January. Around Oct 2nd/5th is when I expect the miners begin folding harder, hiccup slightly in December, then down again into capitulation. Do a transparency over the last 10 years and you will see how they resemble into a falling wedge and explicitly details late Jan as the deep wedge for SPY & GDX. Remember these final defaults come between Q1 -to Q3/2016. Out!
Checking in, follow the 10 year charts on GLD, GDX, SPY & VIX. Along with those we can figure out the past and upcoming splits. My money is on DGAZ and DWTI for the time being (I have shorts on UGAZ till late October & UWTI till late spring). I see NUGT near $41.00 on October 2nd (that will be my next short & money on DUST/JDST). What most of these pundits don't realize is gold can be a safe haven in down markets but miners are not safe, now when you take gold as a safe haven in a deflationary atmosphere the results are less attractive (so we have the best of both ingredients at play).
Did any of you catch the gentlemen on the closing bell Friday, (think he was from Traders or Stock Market Mentors) he said exactly what I believe. Basically laughed at the pundits pushing clients to buy in here - scoffed at the same guys who said buy oil miners in January. Again, the pundits go off a script their bosses hand them - they don't make money if the tell their clients to go all cash. Too Funny!
Fed Mtg in January is the launching pad. Mark it!
Volatility ramping up in both GDX & SPY, along with commodities failing to re-take last cliff point tells me DUST headed near $36.70 on next ripple. Take some profit there as I am only guessing -DMs cross over 38 on that 60/10 scale but if it crosses over $33 tonight, $36 should be easy on another early morning asset selloff. EMM on any specific ? or chart (not gonna get much help sticking around h). If everything holds well, DWTI as well should be in the $170 range by 2nd week of Oct. Out!
With UWTI now splitting up to 10, look for continuation for DWTI, RUSS, BZQ. If FED raises a quarter point it won't have any long term effect - short term there will undoubtedly be a snap in either direction. Don't listen to OPEC, they are not the authority on the economical front and they surely are not united in opinion. Read between the lines. LOYS, I think you meant $30, look for one more move for GLD then get out and wait 2 days, stay flexible. Out!
What the S&P is doing in the last ten days is consolidating for another leg down or another leg up (1 day of price action solves nothing to overall trends). I said what I said earlier, 20% would be 1700 (sometime in October), 15% retrace (that would probably mean VIX near 16) in December, then January is the start, my scenario probably won't change here since last April, that's my IMO. We have trekked lower and now impacts are brewing up. Real market downturns occur ONLY after a few of these ripples occur.
62.5 percent retracement is what I expect. Will it happen? Who knows, but I know the directional trend and when to exactly place my final big positions - before EOY and when these pundits are pounding the table with their bosses script in tow, only to get customers to cut them a check (What are they supposed to do - tell the clients to go to cash - then who needs them).
Most on DimTwits can only read charts 5min in front of them or show selected charts only that support a claim - Wrong, you have to look at all the time frames, sift through the news, & if they agree with each other, only then do you have a likely winner. MB's are for sharing ideas, not subscription services - Buyer Beware! Got to Bail, be back Monday morn.
One more thing, Major miner vs Junior Miners - The holdings in the Major have more to lose or at least on paper due to them having at least some sorts of cash flow, Juniors have had nearly zero profits for many years and CAPEX comes from shareholders willing to lend or buy their notes for pennies. Own both of them but the price will get hit on div issuance. GLTA
Be aware these may issue a dividend between 17th & the 1st. That will take the price down at the open, DUST may likely not due to no split adjustment needed. December however could be a different story. Out!
Walking up stops to $38 & plan to trim for profit at $40.25 and every dollar up to $48 this go around. The 3rd wave if it continues would be in Dec around that 70 mark. That would makes sense in a spinning top. If capitulation would come, it would be when market down and nothing would be safe haven, covered wagons only - probably next May into late July. Not messing with NG till November. The GL, FX & the Group should be the focus. Out!
The period algo is 1 1/2 day behind last one, that would spell bigger move. Just look at 3 year charts - use DM50, SSTO24 - both matching up perfectly! 70-75 This would be the first wave. 10% correction on GS Ratio, needs 25-30 still - that would be near your capitulation.