End of quarter.
IMO, there's nothing MU could say that will add to the doubt that is the #$%$ sandwich of Samy iPhone fear + INTC fear + SNDK fear.
It's a risk/reward proposition. At this point ($26 +/- $3), the upside far outweighs the downside with a two year outlook.
I think the SanDisk miss is the last of the bad sector news. There is always the middle east and Russia to screw things up, but that's usually the excuse for an overdue correction. You can feel the fear now. If MU gets close to $20-$22, I think we have a real opportunity.... not like all those other fake opportunities on the way down from $36. It's the fear that is the signal for me. I was just frustrated before, now I'm genuinely concerned. This may be the same opportunity as when INTC dipped below $20 in Nov 2012. In one year, we will be kicking ourselves because we didn't back up the truck (I repeat to myself while crying into my pillow).
Good call shorts. You won this round. Still in MU for the long run.
Too many conflicting indications.
Silver to gold ratio is 70:1, historically it's about 55:1. Silver should go up. Gold could come down, but that would bring silver down in sympathy.
Dollar is strong and may get stronger against the Euro. Silver should go down.
Interest rates will rise this year (June or September). Silver should go down.
France and Germany have a growing, strong economy. Silver should go up as the dollar falls against the Euro.
An overdue market correction would make silver go up.
Basically. I don't know. It makes me want to sell into strength and wait until August. Or, just trade a 3x ETF between one month high and lows.
At this point, it's just a guess.
two different interest rates. higher inflation means the banks will offer higher retail interest rates, e.g. savings accounts. Also, the Fed has a target of higher inflation, roughly 2%, at which point they will raise interbank/Federal bank interest rates. Both will raise bond yields making commodities less attractive. Right now, we are in a sweet spot of a super high dollar, which has room to fall, and a Fed which will not raise rates until September, probably. The original post was about inflation being good for silver. I disagree. The falling dollar is good for silver. We have about two months of good times unless something major happens, like a 10-15% market correction.
Wouldn't higher inflation bring higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, therefore weaker commodities? Also, higher inflation would prompt the Fed to raise interest rates, which would also be bad for commodities. What I'm I missing?
Agreed. I have Win 7 and there is no way in hell I'm upgrading, even if it's free. New windows is #$%$ windows. MSFT did this to themselves with Vista then Metro. Windows 8 should have been two different operating systems. Windows Touch, and an upgraded version of Win 7. Then bring them together later when needed. Vista - we got burned. Metro - we got burned. Maybe I will upgrade in a year if my computer slows down and I need some more memory and another video card. I would still be on XP if I could. Screw MSFT for copying AAPL and trying to tell me what my OS should do. PC users aren't that easily duped.
Best Buy beats estimates, increases their dividend 21% and allocates $1 billion over the next three years for share buybacks. Too bad nothing they sell has DRAM or NAND, we should downgrade Micron on such confidence.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Best Buy Co. Inc. shares BBY, +3.29% rose 2.3% in premarket trade Tuesday, after the electronics retailer said it will pay a special 51 cents dividend, raise its regular quarterly dividend by 21% to 23 cents a share and buy back up to $1 billion of shares over three years. The company earned $519 million, or $1.46 a share, in the fourth quarter, up from $293 million, or 83 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted EPS came to $1.48 a share, ahead of the FactSet consensus of $1.35. Revenue rose to $14.209 billion from $14.025 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $14.345 billion. Same-store sales rose 2.0%, above the FactSet consensus of 1.7%. Shares have gained 7.2% in the last three months, while the S&P 500 has gained 2.1%.
I'm only worried about computerized trading kicking in and selling if we cross. As it is, we're not trading on fundamentals and upgrades. We might as well trade solely on TA.
From InsiderMonkey. 2014 13F Report for Greenlight Capital, David Einhorn
Lastly, Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) remains Einhorn’s top pick at the close of the year. Einhorn increased his position in Micron by 2% during the quarter, to 31.26 million shares. That position was worth $1.09 billion at the close of 2014, 14.54% of his fund’s $7.52 billion equity portfolio. This position, which was initiated in the fourth quarter of 2013 and was 47.7 million shares strong at the time, was a big winner for Einhorn in 2014. Shares rose 64.5% for the year, and Einhorn took profit from the position by selling off just over 33% of it throughout 2014.
However, Seth Klarman‘s Baupost Group cut its stake in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), once by far its largest, by 62% during the fourth quarter, selling off 31.95 million shares, and there is reason to believe Micron may have peaked, as there are fears that some of its technologies like 3D NAND are falling behind the curve, and that Samsung will depreciate memory chip values with a flood of excess supplies. Shares are down 9.03% year-to-date, partially on lower forecasted DRAM and NAND output in 2015.
China is too expensive. Malaysia is where you want to be. Intel and Micron already have plants there. Although, why build a new plant when in a few years they can buy a Samsung chip plant and retrofit it (Samsung will get out of CPU making when Intel destroys them with 10-7nm, IMHO).