LOL! That's like being in a starving country in Africa and saying "they only supplied us with food. Nothing more."
It is going to be highly entertaining to watch how a select few try to spin this news negatively today.
You also have to like this bit:
"This Phase II clinical trial will be conducted as a multicenter Investigator Sponsored Trial (IST), with UCSF and Dr. Alain Algazi as the sponsor. Merck will supply pembrolizumab, and OncoSec will provide electroporation devices and plasmid IL-12."
AKA: ONCS and Merck provide the goods, and UCSF funds the trial.
Great news. The biggest part of this news being of course, that while there is no upfront cash right now (as expected), ONCS now has the chance to prove that they can turn non-responders into responders. If they do, then Merck will be the JV partner and it will probably be worth a lot of money. It just may take some patience.
I guess we'll see soon how the market feels about those odds.
I don't disagree with the idea that this probably won't be some mega blockbuster deal and may not even include any upfront money. However, when teaming up with a partner who will provide PD-1, there are literally only a handful of companies that could do this.
Good post. I tend to be thinking along these same lines. I do feel that we'll see an increase in volume next week and perhaps an increase in pps heading into December (assuming none of the milestones are announced next week). I agree that the big market movers will be the new indication and Phase 2b announcements. Whether it will raise the pps and keep it sustained at a new floor up is another story. Obviously I think all of the upcoming news is worth much more than a $130M market cap, but the market is strange and it doesn't help that ONCS is trading on the OTC.
My gut tells me that the Phase 2b partnership will not include any upfront cash or milestones. However, after seeing GERN's recent partnership/collaboration deal (they are in Phase 2), I guess I won't rule anything out.
Anyone who didn't think there would be some volatility after the reverse spilt was kidding themselves. As I have said all along, it would be no surprise to see the pps head to $3 or even below in the time between doing the reverse split and releasing Phase 2a data. There are two major milestones in the next few months that could help bolster the pps a bit, 1. Data release 2. New IND filed. If the new indication is Parkinson's I think the market will view that very positively.
I am glad they did the r/s when they did because it would be too much to handle if they did a r/s and raise at the same time. Better to split those two events up. Dilution is coming, no doubt about that, but hopefully these two major milestones will help to soften the blow. I also believe there is a good chance BCLI can secure some non-dilutive funding via ice bucket challenge donations. That would certainly also bring some more attention to the company. Considering they have a potential legitimate treatment for several neurological diseases, at $48M it is a bargain in my opinion.
Why? If both Pfizer and Merck agree to it it could still happen:
"The exclusive nature of the deal means Pfizer and Merck cannot collaborate with any other drugmaker in the PD-LI or related PD-1 area, unless they jointly agree to do so."
It seems like people are really worried about this news. I don't really think it changes much in my opinion.
I think a 20% dip was to be expected as part of the normal volatility to follow a r/s. It is already back up over 6% today anyway. The fact that they have yet to release Phase 2a data and it is only down 14% is pretty encouraging. I also think many are being cognizant of dilution that looms and will likely be timed with the data release.
I am interested in this answer too.
Also, and I apologize in advance, but if anyone is unhappy with the platform of this board, I host a free board called biotechinvestor at freeforums. If you Google it it will pop up. I like visiting different boards am not trying to lure people away from here. But it is pretty user friendly and we have a whole forum dedicated to ONCS for those who are not happy with this format.
Now that they are on the Nasdaq they'd be crazy not to have a cc. I assumed the PR before the call would just be for earnings. Maybe they will release data on this day as well? Unlikely, but you never know.
"What is there to stop it from going back down?"
- Full data from Phase 2a study (Q4 2014)
- Next indication IND filed (H1 2015)
- Launch multi-dose ALS study (H1 2015)
- Enrollment of US Phase 2 study complete (H2 2015)
- Next indication into the clinic (H2 2015)
- Results of US Phase 2 study (H2 2015)
Then there is also the possibility of securing some non-dilutive funding on this next round of fundraising via ALS ice bucket challenge (per comments from Fiorino in a recent interview). If that happens it could have a similar impact on the pps as a milestone in my opinion.
A couple of things. Dipping down to $3 or even a bit less is not the end of the world and should not be much of a surprise. I think this kind of fluctuation was to be expected after the r/s especially since they didn't release data results shortly after. $3 would be $.20 pre-split which was only $.03's off my cost basis. As long as it goes back up, and upcoming dilution is not over-the-top, then it is no big deal. The pps went up after the last round of dilution was announced so you never know.
A few catalysts upcoming could help things too. Top-line Phase 2a data could be released any day now. Data from Phase 2 in the US won't be released until 2016. They company has also guided that an IND for a new indication will be filed shortly (probably beginning of 2015). Re-dose trial is also expected to launch in the not too distant future.
Thanks! Without a computer since the weekend so trying to manage on my iPhone. Not easy when trying to search stuff.
Where do you see that the presentations are "best abstract" as chosen by the conference? On the Melanoma Bridge site? I have looked and not been able to find it. Thanks.
Great news! The most important take away for me is that the Phase 1 long term data is positive.
It always amazes me to see the lengths some people go to simply to try and annoy strangers on an internet message board. I have never understood this and I probably never will.
I am imagining the wife and kids in the other room while Dad is busy in front of the computer creating his newest screen name so he can get his rocks off being an internet troll in his "secret" life, lol.
It's quite funny when you think about it, but pathetic at the same time.
That's what happens when a company files a $100M shelf the same day they release good (but not incredible imo) data.
That said though, I am tempering my expections for the market reaction to the end of year nest of news. In my experience, whenever most think something is a sure bet, it ends up not turning out that way.
Crossing my fingers that ONCS' data releases will be received well by the market, and not be a dud like ACTC's.