I totally agree. That's funny that you mention not even looking at ANV for a couple of months. I was just thinking about that over the weekend. Stop stressing myself out for awhile and look in march to see it at $6.
Sorry no buyout coming. You don't see buyouts when times are tough in the basic materials industry. Companies are trying to cut costs right now to weather this downtrend in gold that know one really knows how long it will last. Look at coal. Down for 2 years now. Companies trading at all time lows with big reserves in the ground. Has anyone bought ANR, WLT, ACI. No. Some will say well gold and coal are not the same thing. No $&*T. The point is acquisitions most always happen in the basic materials sector during the good times or at least when it is pretty clear that an uptrend is starting to take hold. That is the truth.
Agreed. If gold can get over and hold above 1250 I will feel better. But also agree that 1300 would be much better. This needs to happen sooner then later so ANV doesn't go BK. As long as gold goes up in 2014 ANV will survive. When gold hits 3000 by end of 2015 ANV will be $70 not $50 and I will sell my 17,000 shares for $1,190,000. Now that sounds like a plan :)
My boat is already loaded with 17,000 shares at average of $4.50. So my boat is still leaking but I am in no hurry to bail out yet. This is a big risk for me cause obviously if they go BK then I lose big time. If gold can hold and go higher in 2014 then I could win big time. Time will tell but ANV does not have forever. They need gold to increase sooner then later.
Heres the deal Ben. First of all investors are doing much better today. Someone liked the sale. But the more important thing is this money goes a long way in getting us through this downtrend in coal. If we dont make it through this down cycle then this sale doesnt matter anyway. ANR is first and foremost a coal company. I think second half of 2014 coal especially met really starts to turn around. By the end of 2015 ANR could be a $50 stock again. 2016 with economies really growing again $70 could happen. Now this is my opinion but if I were to tell you that by end of 2016 you could turn $70,000 into $700,000 this day would be long forgotten. I will be glad to wait a full 2 years to sell my 10,000 shares for $500,000. I really could happen.
Just wondering your thought on this ben. ANR is more of a met play. So even though cold weather may push nat gas up further doesn't ANR really need the price of met coal to go up to turn the corner? And that seems much farther away until countries start growing and building stuff again.
I actually think it would be good for gold if the fed ended the money pumping. The market would have a big correction. Big money would take their profits and go back to cash. Gold would also take a hit for maybe a month. Then I think money would pour back into gold as a safe haven while the rest of the market tanked back to around 12,00 for the dow. Gold would jump quickly back to 1700-2000.
I live in Colorado and the highs for the next few days is 12 degrees with lows from 0 to -11 degrees. This system of cold air is not going to be moved out for about a week. Sunday looks to be a high of 24 degrees. Hopefully this will help and will be only the beginning of a cold winter. System should move toward the east by end of week.
If gold goes to 1000 and stays there, or lower, for all of 2014 then that is definitely a possibility. ANV took on all that debt to finish their mine and process the gold never thinking gold would drop like it did. Now they are in a bind and that is why ANV is at $3. That is the big risk reward with ANV right now. If gold goes up, say second half of 2012 to 1700 then ANV will be back to $30. While BK may be a possibility, so is gold going back to 1700 in 2014.
I am sure he is very interested in seeing this company turn around. But the price of gold is completely out of his control and that is the number one problem facing the company. Do you think ANV would be at $3 if gold was at $1700? Obviously not.
Good luck with your future picks. This is definitely gut wrenching. I am in the same shoes and have been waiting and worrying. Many here say eventually it will turn around and gold will sky rocket. It definitely might happen. But eventually is the troublesome part because ANV does not have a lot of time. I believe they can survive 2014 but if eventually does not happen by the end of 2014 ANV will be done.
Seem to be focusing on Australia which doesn't help ANR unfortunately. The article also mentions the view by these clients is that the coal market is not going to get much better for two years. I am long ANR but if coal market doesn't get better in two years ANR wont be here.
You guys are so negative. I just put a curse on you, screwup and hersheysquirts. You all will begin experiencing very bad luck very soon. ANR will turn around but you guys will have a terrible future in trading. The universe does not like negativity.
I think we are going to have a colder then normal winter this year. Already had one good cold snap move across the country. Now another one coming. Here is the weather for Denver, CO. Wed. high of 14 low of 1. Thurs. high of 9 low of 1. Friday high of 12 low of 1. And this is just the beginning od December. Nat gas is going up. Common ANR and keep the cold coming. Cold wont bother me if it causes ANR to heat up!
If gold can hold steady to the end of year I agree with you. I think you will see buying in January as many take new positions on oversold stocks. Some more selling in December like you said for the tax loss but come Jan ANV stock will get a bump up as many take new positions for the year. But as we know it will depend heavily still on the price of gold.
ANV is trading in the low 3's for a reason. Do they have a good mine? Yes. Is it producing a lot of gold? Yes. Did they take on a lot of debt to get to this point? Yes. The interest on this debt is significant and will be a drag on the company in 2014 at these and especially lower gold prices. If gold were to go to $1000 and stay there ANV would probably go under or at least have to dilute by end of 2014. I really think the second half of 2014 is going to be good for gold. 2015 even better. Don't let anyone tell you ANV is a sure thing. There are no sure things when trading or we all would be rich. This is high risk high reward right now. ANV is heavily shorted right now. Shorts also do their research. There are many who have accumulated shares at this price also. I have 17,000 shares. Am I nervous? Heck yeah. Could I retire in 2016 if the right things happen. It's possible.
That is the problem now. Provenge has failed. So there is nothing to rebound on. And yes now we are invested with only hope which like you said is not the best thing to have thousands of dollars riding on.
I believe that is the time table. Gold could go much lower when fed says end to the stimulus. Question is can ANV survive 2014 with gold down to say 1100 then range bound between 1200-1300 for most of 2014. I think the move up could start towards the later part of 2014.