its self fulfilling, if they cut the div they go down and its a vicious circle. they are better off toughing it out and taking it to the shorts. the market is frequently wrong and is taking nearly all mlps to ludicrous levels as investor interest and illiquidity take their toll during tax selling season. buying into irrational declines brought on by panic generally works if you have a little patience.
yes. the cotton valley properties are really superb and they just need to buy time which they should be able to accomplish as they have a lot of cash and the debt is not due for almost two years. the warm weather scenario is already priced in the stock. i think they can do a swap here on the debt side and extend out maturities and be in very good shape. the equity should have massive upside once they lay out a swap.
I would think they would get some uplift from consumers avoiding chipotle and chipotles whole image being better for you would seem to be kind of heavily tarnished?
I think so and am buying. It feels like the quant programs are following the dec gas futures, combined with those getting out under a $1 I think this has gotten really excessive. Am looking outside at snow and ice, it feels very near a bottom. Would think this would be a great time to launch a partial bond repurchase/swap deal and extend maturities out another few years.
I am not happy but just added more in the 3.80's. The fundamentals and share price are totally out of whack here. I hope they resist the temptation to lower the dividend just because its so high in here. That is a dead-end. I do think as you say if they just manage this it will recover, from here likely up moves 100-200 % imo.
thanks. as you indicate i neglected to put in why management was at fault. first, in earlier calls they specifically brought up how they could do buybacks, now they are unable. Perhaps, they can work out something with their g.p to do so which would be massively accretive. Nor have they yet bought personally in size. More timely, on the conference call last week they should have simply directly addressed the distribution and the relevant covenants which are really not that bad as opposed to funbling around about looking at all options. I think that would have provided more confidence. I fault management most of all for not laying out a defense for the companys underlying value dividend or no this is cheap and noone can defend it but management and personally i thought they did a terrible job on the call. As to running the company they had a pretty good quarter and it sounds to be getting better.
The share price of Azure is absurd now under nearly any scenario. They stated on the conference call in answering the mint analyst i believe that 12 million in ebitda per q for the first half of 16 seemed directionally correct. That would mean no distribution cut. Even if they cut the distribution to zero the whole company at the bottom of this oil cycle is at 5x ebitda and debt would be coming down fast. There is clearly forced liquidation and algos dragging this down but i just added significantly down here and expect a downside thats minimal from here, maybe .80 cents and upside to 12 bucks imo.
just bought some a's and b's. this is ridiculous. I guess the fear is they wont get a good bid in the marcellus. I actually think they would be better off waiting to sell it till next year. might get a bit bumpier but the value in the stack and their excellent hedge position make me very bullish down here
he is a very capable guy, no disagreements with the financials according to the 8k filed and staying to transition the new/old cfo. given his strong background he probably just has a bigger better job offer for the new year. too bad losing him but the company is in good shape and the stock...ridiculously cheap!
just bought some at the same price. they didn't eliminate the div just are coming back with something smaller that i think will take the stock up 50% from here. i think you're going to need the luck selling this far into the hole.
with the cash they have and the 7.5 million in ebitda this quarter is it trading at 1x ebitda at the bottom of the oil cycle? that is just crazy, at the high of this cycle this could easily go up 10x from here imo
emes and hclp this actually looked ok which is a major positive in this environment. The industrial division pours off cash. Overall company cash position good. The q we are in is probably the low of this cycle and I think the shares at least double from here by the end of 2016.
energy prospectus group forum predicting they will get 200 million for the marcellus property. If they get anywhere near that this is going to run higher like a bat out of hell imo.
I think you are correct on EH though I'd guess more like 450, sell some of the pdp's. get the bank loan down and you have till 2020 to pay off the 600 which gives plenty of time for some more drilling on the rest of the land. There is a way out here for them but not if they stay silent.
I agree and I thought their strategy was to take big if incremental steps such as selling the pipeline and the joint venture. Those seem to have not happened so now I wonder how they hang on till things improve, a land sale would really help. Maybe they should sell all their land and hang onto the pipeline for example.