Ahhhh!!! so that's why I have a position in DAR! Couldn't have said it better myself. DAR will squeeze for all they can get. But then so will REGI.
You're also right about biod feed stock tolerance. The builders of the Seneca plant bragged that they could use anything, even road kill and brown grease (hamburger grease) and black, trap grease. When REGI said they were upgrading Danville to process anything that could arrive by truck, those would be included. Chicago is an easy drive. And those waste fats are primo when sold into LCFS states and territories. Toronto and LCFS Ontario is an easy ship from both Danville and Seneca.
My recollections from old conf. calls is that the refiners had a problem with poultry grease because chicken feed was supplemented with P or K and other impurities were retained in the fat and had the annoying propensity to glom onto the catalyst and stop it from functioning. My thinking is those pretreatment issues have all been worked out. REGI immediately install their proprietary front end at Geismar and I am accepting company guidance that Geismar is in full production this quarter. Confirmation or refutation will be coming next week.
That's the devil of writing all this out. Can't resist the urge to buy more.
Guy may be great, buy he's Wolfson's man, not the new CEO's choice. If you are looking to change direction, to build a Terra Via in place of the old Solazyme, you start with a new CEO and let the him make the key personnel choices. Filling these position(s) is indication Wolfson will be remaining in charge and secondly the new CEO is unlikely either to be announced in the cc or to have broad authority to reorganize. This may be preceptious on my part but with a company scoring huge loses panic first seems the better choice. However, with the cc coming, there is a good argument company will come out with positive announcement to hype share price. On the other hand this might have been their best idea . . ..
plum, what you say is correct. Company did say earlier that Geismar ramp would be slow and deliberate and considering what happen the last ramp up that caution was warranted. They also said in last conf. call that Geismar was running and to expect it to fully contribute to earnings in 2Q and thereafter.
Don't quite understand why paying Tyson presents an issue. REGI pays its suppliers a portion of the BTC. To me it seems a reasonable practice. First cc after the IPO analysts where very concerned about feed stocks and when the company did not move into the supply chain, expressed disappointment that the company was not pursuing its plan to guarantee supply. However, its is now clear the company did assure those feed stocks. This has been accomplish by sharing the BTC with their suppliers. Of course the exact amount is subject to individual contracts and is helpful to the company in those negotiations have the amount each pays a secret. No surprise there, at least not to me.
Don't know that the Tyson payout is any different from that reach in the Grays Harbor and Madison buyouts. It is safe to assume these future contingent payouts where negotiated in exchanged for reduced payment at the time of purchase.
In any event the cc is days away and added color is . . . .
Website has brief video on opening and upgrading of recently purchased plant. Most interesting point is that the several million dollar project will bump production up 20%. Since is a replication of the Seneca plant, have to wonder if over time its' production has not also been bumped 20%.
You need to hurry up and go short.
Holding at resistance with your concerns is sheer folly Why are you?
re 1. Agree.
re 2. Agree, In pipeline, means awaiting further testing, e.g. shelf life. As far a "promising" goes, Wolfson was promising immediate massive demand when he broke off with Roquette.
re 3. Agree, and see above.
Three thoughts on Thrive:
1. Selling the oil as an ingredient to Follow Your Heart for use in vegan egg substitute is probably much more profitable than selling it by the bottle.
2. If Thrive seems like the best cooking oil you have used, that may be because you have not used high oleic canola oil which is being sold to food processors because it's unique properties, long shelf life and high smoke point, do not add value to consumer oils so as justify a higher price. Thrive has failed to compete with high oleic veggie oils (soy is on the way) in the commercial arena. If you question this assertion, check out Bunge and the JV's algae oil sales.
3. While algae oil, early on, was claimed to have a long shelf life, you might notice it now has antioxidants added. Oxidation shortens shelf life. So when you hear Wolfson complain that food companies are being too conservative in wanting to test shelf life by using the actual product's shelf life (which might take years), then you might ask yourself whether those food companies are not just too conservative, but actually have good reason to require extensive, time consuming product testing.
Depends on the seller. The one I saw has it at $72 plus $13 shipping. Do the math, 90 units for $85 dollars is $1 an "egg" (note the fake eggs have 1/5ththe protein of a real egg, and that protein is NOT the complete protein found in real eggs, so much for SZYM's claims of a value proposition).
I don't get excited when Thrive is unavailable. I would assume that SZYM has guaranteed its commercial customers that their orders would be given preference. That is SZYM would tell a Follow Your Heart their orders would be completed before any oil was used to bottle more Thrive. This would assure FYH it would not be competing with SZYM's product(s) oil. This seems a reasonable premise and would go to explain the frequent times Thrive is not available on Amazon.
Also am wondering whether Moema is certified by US authorities for export of food algae to the US. Would not be surprised if this were the case. However, if there is a source to the contrary, it would be helpful. One would think there must be some restriction or Moema would be supplying US needs. Containers are not that expensive to ship, or are they?
The JV ownership percentage appears to be insider information at this time. It is also possible the percentage could vary with each deal, just as VMG's funding commitment could be expected to be deal dependent. We may be asking for answers that are not there.
One other question might be whether the recent SZYM $28 M funding from the food industry was linked to Terra Brands. That is the participants, as prospective TerraBrand customers, were provided the opportunity to share in SZYM's future with a stock purchase an a low figure. Of course, I have no hard evidence, it is merely the fit. $28 M does not really do much for SZYM's balance sheet and they should have been expecting their share price would rise, so the reasons for doing the capital raise are not very strong. YMMV
You might read up on VMG. They are fund which develops food brands to a size they are of interest to major companies. Look into their track record. They recently raise $500M to invest. Then read the Food Industry News article and you will come away with the understanding that TerraBrands (the SZYM/VMG partnershis) is to buy into companies using SZYM algae, develop them and then sell those companies . . . for substantial profits. How much profit? Use your imagination or research VMG.
Think about it this way Ingredients are a nickle on a dollar. Whereas ownership of the company using the algal ingredient is where the big money is. Think of Soylent, a $2.50 bottle has 0.10 cents of algal oil in it, but it is the algal oil that is making the $2.50 product possible, driving the sales. Soylent is coming out way ahead of SZYM. If you will recall, last fall I was laughing at the long 'n wrongs who were making great claims based on Soylent (and vegan eggs, etc.). Why, because Soylent was making all the money, NOT SZYM!. Well what has changed? SZYM or VMG has figured out away to capture some of the profits a Soylent makes from SZYM algae. The result is the SZYM/VMG partnership. SZYM provides the unique algae which drives product sales and VMG invests in brand development, marketing. What does a FYH or a Soylent get? First, assurance of an algae supply plus funding and expertise to go national and greatly increase its' sales and value. What does SZYM/VMG get? An ownership interest in a FYH, in a Soylent, etc. which will in a few years be sold. See VMG track record for results.
I see this as entirely new business plan for SZYM with profits not only coming from sale of ingredients but also from the more lucrative side, the sale of the vegan eggs, the soylent, etc.
So I am now long 'n . . . right.
Could very well be. He'd be an excellent choice who has familiarity with SZYM from couple of years advising them. My guess would be the VMG deal was part of that advice . . . doing what they are proposing in that food indy article. On the other hand, you will have his expertise in any event as he would be coming from the VMH side.
If you haven't added, don't wait. This move will be based on the market's considered assessment, rather than a reaction to management hype which quickly fades.
Is SZYM & VMG buying into "Follow Your Heart", into "Soylent"?
Yes they are (or some similar company). That's what this new long thinks is coming.
Just read the food article, gooDOTgl/nKxgE5, explaining the SZYM/VMG partnership and try and tell me it is not Veggan egss and the like from Follow Your Heart that they are talking about. And throw in Soylent for good measure.
Then think of this, If those smooth algal products can drive sales, then what SZYM/VMG appear to have in mind could be . . .
I may be wrong but I am interpreting the PR more broadly, i.e. to include cash. and base that on reading "The new venture combines VMG’s expertise, investment capital and success investing in leading consumer brands such as . . . " To me "investment capital" is cash not just expertise.
Sucks up supply coming from that part of the world; constitutes acceptance of higher blend ratios albeit global.
And what about REGI expanding life science labs at Ames. Like that move especially if it means intensified efforts to develop production methodologies, economics and thereby addressing the great weakness at other biochem companies. Need names be mentioned SZYM, AMRS, GEVO, SYNM? Like it also in that Iowa costs are much lower than SF and the cultural balance between research/production is more orientated to the later.
Speculate, this might portend at the next cc the company will be announcing it is going foreword with a building a modest production facility for biochemicals in Iowa (where there are tax benefits)..