Question, could there be a problem with the cogen plant when they try to run at say 10% capacity, that problem being when the unit runs it is scaled for say 80%+ capacity and would have to dump the surplus electric just the way a 4000 w. generator supplying electricity to a 100w bulb would?
It is poor, again. SZYM doesn't trade with oil. SZYM's share price was falling for years before the break in crude prices.
If you want to more fully understanding of the market dynamics for crude oil and biodiesel the pages of Petrotec's financial statements are a rich source of information.
Company will be good steward of public trust and continue with the growth plans outlined in, for example, the blog interview with Mr. Oh discussed here about a month ago.
Will not have to wait that long. By next Jan the hand writing will be on the wall and it will be written in sp appreciation. The closer I look at this company, the more ways they have to capture more margin. That is extremely rare.
Now if only I could only go away and come back then.
Whatever happen to the Dow deal? Remember it was for a 20,000 mt/yr of dielectric fluid.
And then there was the Unilever off take agreement for 10,000 mt/yr of soap stuff. Where did it go?
Just a passing thought. REGI's expansion problem is first feedstock limitation, quantity and price, then unstable regulation. It's one thing to buy a Geismar and have it up and running within, what six to nine months? and an entirely different matter if it were 2 - 3 years as for a greenfield plant. But if RVO and BTC are made permanent, might be a whole new ball game and one that REGI is very well suited for.
Missed one. Company has no cash once the convertible debt (which will not convert) of $210 is considered. You are forgetting the "corporate raider" has already struck, i.e. Wolfson and his gang have been liquidating for years.
Interesting, I have been making those two points for perhaps a couple of years, but I never put it together in the clear and direct manner you have.
Wonder what is the name plate capacity of the world's largest operational algae pressing facility?
Wonder what ever happened to the $25M Peoria refinery the DOE 80% funded? SZYM has only noted the research commitment ($8M) ended last September. Apparently this was a dead end, a waste of taxpayer dollars, of shareholder hopes.
" From a chemistry or technical view point, it would be nice to see all biodiesel plants converted over to renewable diesel, but that is probably just a dream. It is a superior product, not just to biodiesel, but to petroleum diesel as well."
If the BTC goes permanent, it might not be just a dream.
"Why would the Brazillian Govt lend them all that money if the long term story was not solid? "
poker that is exactly the kind of statement that got you guys in at 10+. Come on, the Brazil had a thousand time more to gain if SZYM present new uses for sugar. So they threw some pennies at them. But it should never have been a justification for the small investor to buy SZYM.
Moema, at this point may be more a liability than an asset. That is, Moema was constructed to run high volume of commodity products in huge fermenters. It's a horrible fit when all you can sell are small amounts of diverse products.
Then there is the problem of the $ 210 m. balloon payment that comes up in '18 - '19. Yeah so you say that's a long way off, but is it? Consider, SZYM will have to be selling stock by the end of this year, and you had better believe the hedge funds buying the paper will want a resolution of that $ 210 m. Think of cash burn as the rock and the balloon payment as the hard place. You can take it from there . . . the splat is insolvency.
Second, Geismar improves REGI's BTC recovery prospects. Because bio-fuel can be sold as diesel, there is no need to use petroleum distributors who seek a piece of the BTC. The bio-fuel could simple be sold into the pipeline as diesel, and the RINs and BTC kept. Since it likely the biofuel as a blending agent will have greater value, it will probably be sold as such, but nonetheless REGI's would be in a position to keep the BTC share that has customarily gone to the oil company distributor. It looks like Geismar is about to become a cash flow king. It
could be reproducing itself in multiple locations or financing all manner of other projects. But without the BTC?
So make mine a BTC converted to a PTC. However, trying to profit from this insight is problematic even if it proves to be spot on. The difficulty is that it requires the retroactive passage of the BTC for its impact. But REGI's guidance will exclude any BTC consideration until passage of enabling legislation. So, even though the company is capturing a greater piece of the BTC pie which potentially is a huge tripling earnings, nonetheless it will not become visible until enactment which is likely to be at the end of year. The trading implication being to sit on the sidelines until approval is eminent and climb on. If you can see a better plan, would like to hear it.
grgs while the BTC is not everything it can be very helpful to REGI. Before going into that more, a few
points. While REGI is a low cost producer, its cost advantage can disipate with shipping costs outside its
core areas. The argument that dropping the BTC will mean REGI rules is a talking point but could back fire,
i.e. REGI is better off with the BTC, especially if it where to become a permanent PTC, a producers tax credit.
When you look at the BTC's current impact on REGI, the standout feature is that REGI is capturing only about 1/3 of the dollar and passing 2/3 off some suppliers and probably much more to oil company fuel distributors. Now if REGI could increase its share from that 1/3 to 2/3 to 1, well its profits would double or triple (note: w/o the BTC, REGI is near a break even operation).
So the question becomes, is REGI doing anything to gather in a greater piece of the BTC pie? I can see couple of strategies in operation. First, as you noted in a post awhile back, REGI is moving into the distribution chain and they could be capturing more of the BTC pie. I agree. REGI has recently established distribution sites at the Magellan's (a division of Williams pipelines) tank farms where REGI will be offering blends to 20%. These terminals are near REGI plants with name plate of 102 mg and probably 90 mg actual production. If you take a pencil to this and figure: 1. the oil companies are taking $0.33/g of the BTC, so if they were cut out of the loop, REGI would be the recepiant doubling its profits; 2. if the oil co. where taking the entire 2/3 rds , REGI could be tripling profit with the $0.66/g. Applying that to the gallonage should provide close to a minimum and maximum dollar gain gain. Keep in mind that it may take more than one year to accomplish and also that once established REGI could continue its marketing of biodiesel from outside sources to good effect.
Second, Giesmar improves REGI's BTC recovery prospects.
Might add, an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases for REGI type biodiesel, i.e. made from inedible waste vs. 40% for veggie oils. Will be interesting whether legislation introduced on BTC will provide for greater payment to producers using waste oil and grease. EU has double the SME incentive. Should it happen, REGI's sp could see a real bump.
Read my posts on their hedging activity. You will note I am not the source. REGI's CEO's comments in the conference calls is the source. If you need a further demonstration, go listen to the calls or read the transcripts for a discussion of their hedging activity and its effect.
I would not consider a few numbers jotted down by an obvious beginner as constituting analysis when it blithely ignores the company's guidance.