Mkt is acting like the last block for sale, 320k, traded into the close yesterday. If that is what has been holding down sp, should be seeing move toward top of range. Now if those margins being reported in CARD apply to REGI could be interesting. Guidance midpoint would be for about $ 0.12/gallon profit margin.
I hear that.
But the question is also, is this the REGI of 2015 or of 2013? is this the Geismar of 2015 or 2017? Seems the company's recent sp purchases are saying "the later." And if they are right?
As reported by CARD, operating margins on soy biod are running 50% higher since REGI's conf call. Could this mean a big profit surprise? Would think so, but this is REGI where hedging to avoid loses can create them. For example, going long BO which fails to rise and offset the rise in grease and waste oils that the company uses. Hope I'm wrong and that REGI will be in position to announce guidance surprise after the 1st. An increase in SME margins from the 0.40's to the 0.70's ought to mean something good is happening out there.
Saw another block of .5 m shares go across. Have to think this is continuation effect of the convert issuance. And wonder whether this is the end of the selling.
Interesting question, which means I don't have an answer. But curious whether they can go beyond info released to public on theory it being a "meeting" it is public? Now if they webcast it, then they would not be limited. Go figure.
Could be just down on residual selling be hedgies stripping the interest payment from the stock, i.e. sell short to remove the stock conversion component and hold on to the right to the 4% payment for the next twenty years.
To me the company has great potential going forward. We could be merely in the back wash from last years Geismar headache. That could have cost a buck or more a share in an otherwise horrible year what with crude crashing. But Geismar also depressed share price and accountants decided market cap could not support that $175 million on goodwill on the balance sheet. So they wrote it off. Now when a new investor begins dd he sees that big fat loss of $3.35/sh last year and goes "woah" cowboy.
But going forward things look great. And by, the way, the company does not sell fuel. It does sell compliance with environment regs. Need to get that straight, shooter.
Hmmm, likely to a a biochem plant. This round of financing clears the way to commit funds to the bacteria plant that has been on the stove for over a year. Should be just about cooked to perfection by now.
Do tend to dismiss manipulation. It is just too tempting. Always there to explain away any downside action and it stands in the way of looking deeper for real causes.
There is a disconnect between my thinking, should have broken into double digits, and the market action, breaking deeper into singles. Have too much respect for markets to ignore price action.
Sp is in a funk and can't get a grasp as to the why of it. Aside from the usual fears, can only guess. One would be that the cost of REGI's grease feed stocks are high in relation to bean oil. This could be due to demand pull arising from LCFS, or aftermath of El Nino. But what ever the source, the idea would be that BO plants would have the edge here. However, if this were the problem there is a answer, the BO operating margin would be a floor for REGI, that is REGI would switch to BO (or threaten their grease suppliers with such a switch) to maintain that margin. So it not that big a deal. Now the counter point becomes, is this all just a scapegoat a pumper has imagine to explain away a fall in REGI's sp? And the real reason for the share price malaise is . . .
Criticism would be only helpful.
The counter point would run, XOM benfits in several ways. First, it's PR people have an additional talking point demonstrating how SOM supports AE. Second, there is the possibility (no matter how remote) the JV might be successful, one never knows what might be discovery, break through made and XOM is a huge company that cannot afford to make the IBM mistake. Third, while XOM may not impact eviro groups that is not necessarily their target audience, they may move some undecided and that is good enough in a long campaign.
Please it wasn't me. You remember don't you, that it was the short, willy or beeny or something, who argued REGI was selling their stock short (the convert's at 10+) and buying it back cheap (8 +) which was just like covering. Claimed foul play.
Does REGI have anything to be concerned about in the court papers?
REGI picked up 4 million shares a $8.32 the other day. To use another posters analogy, they "covered their short."
Eh, a nickle here, a dime there, it all adds up. Now for the 2Q results and the 3Q guidance.
SZYm had product in Whole Foods Stores and GNC at the IPO (See the S 1). So seeing a TerraVia product on those stores shelves may not mean much . . . other than that TVIA is willing to pay the shelf rental fees.
"Jackson's selling in advance still stinks to high hell in my opinion."
Can't disagree with your sentiment. However, it is just possible that that was Jackson's opinion of the deal (the new converts) and dumping his shares was in disgust.
Very insightful question. I must not be a guru, 'caus I got no answer.
But do have a thought. With Yellen pronouncing rate hike coming soon, maybe the financing window is going to be closing sooner rather then later. With the in mind, just maybe it wasn't a bad idea to get what money the company could while the "gettin' was good."
But as always, I could be totally wrong.
Agreed. It's a crummy confusing deal. And yes the stock has sold off 10%. But the money to be made now is to the upside. Don't be a piggg'ee short . . . end up on the barbie.
Toxic? Nawh. At worst "too clever by 'half".
At best if works. Companies have been criticized for availing them of the cheap money that out there to buy in stock with debt. Looks like REGI has join that movement. And in the process are raising an extra $ 50 million which just happens to be the price tag they put on a brown field bio-chemical plant at the analyst day presentation in January. (Note the recent Bunge property buy increased the Danville plant to 31 acres and if you look at the site on satellite view you will see an old plant which sure does fit the description of a brown field site.)
All in all, can hardly be pleased with yesterday's price action and would not call this one of those "buying opportunities" pumpers like to tout. That said, none the less, don't think this is time to be selling and will be adding a few shares looking for a small profit on a trade just to offset the aggravation.
Has the markings of a selling climax. As if someone wanted out of the convert's, traded for shares with selling them immediately in mind and is doing exactly that.