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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

jim_hairball 83 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 41 minutes ago Member since: Aug 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    VNR acquiring.

    by rsbenz227 3 hours ago
    jim_hairball jim_hairball 2 hours 41 minutes ago Flag

    I am selling 1/2 tomorrow and the other half after I get my distribution from LRE, the ex-dividend date. Take my money and think about what to do after that... LRE is currently the largest position in my ROTH IRA...so I guess this is good news...We shall see what happens tomorrow and the on ex-dividend date.

  • It appears that LRE is doing what MCEP has done..cut the distribution low enough to avoid a future cut and avoid paying a high cost of capital to borrow like it's peers have done. Cost of capital is important to me and other MLP investors like Rich Kinder.

  • Reply to

    Ex-Divy date

    by russprykowski 13 hours ago
    jim_hairball jim_hairball 12 hours ago Flag

    There will be a distribution cut, no doubt about that..it is just how much...I am at the $0.80-$.085 range for this year...set themselves up so their will not have to cut again in 2016...and also fix the borrowing base problem like MCEP is doing...but then the GP, Lime Rock Partners might step up and actually do something and tell the limited partners about it one of these days

  • Reply to

    Steeping aside here

    by griffin.mungus 13 hours ago
    jim_hairball jim_hairball 12 hours ago Flag

    thank you grif for your update....
    Myself I am waiting to see what the Cohen's do with THEIR company before I put my money in ARP again.
    EROC, well you said it yourself "horrific" management...unless one is talking 1% of your investment..I would not invest in that....so that leaves me invested in LRE & MCEP....60/40 mix for now.
    I try not to excessively trade.. that means with well fargo I get 100 free trades a year...my roth ira is at 97 trades with 2 weeks to go before it resets at zero...so maybe in 2 weeks I might start re-shifting the mix I have in upstream...til then GLTA

  • Reply to

    What's the problem?

    by jkprice Apr 13, 2015 11:37 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 14, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    ARP & LRE are not that alike....ARP is far more dependent on natural gas (% revenue)...exact % depend on hedges & future prices...but LRE is far more oil dependent then ARP...ARP is for those that prefer nat. gas future profits & LRE is for those that like oil future profits

  • Reply to

    Secondary

    by edelhead Apr 9, 2015 11:13 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 9, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Management (MRD Holdco) had 5,360,912 shares as of the last 10Q...now sold 4,661,663.
    Management claimed to be buyers (stock buy-back) and where stock buyers in the $14 range...now they are stock sellers in the $16 range...spin it any way you want...I do not like this...have my money now in LRE & MCEP....not about to flip it back into MEMP...I will pass up this "buying opportunity"....let the experts from Seeking Alpha do what they do...which for the most part is own 20 or more stocks and re-balance when a stock doubles...or in others words sell your winners & buy your losers

  • Reply to

    One insider sale

    by jbcguy Apr 8, 2015 2:54 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 8, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    Well...at least with KMI, Rich Kinder can say he has never sold a share of his MLP...The GP of MEMP can say we are selling whatever we can now before....thankfully I sold out and am not waiting around for the reason the GP is selling into the market.... a strong GP would be buying in this market...not unloading for cash...the GP thinks the shares are over valued, not under-valued

  • Reply to

    2016-17 DCF baselines

    by griffin.mungus Mar 30, 2015 1:43 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 6, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    "... Obviously you don't go out and offer units at five-six bucks!..."
    All the upstream MLPs are going to have to get use to the new norm...New acquisitions will be made in 2015 shares...but then the price of new properties will have to be accretive at 2015 oil prices...or you do not do the deal...IMHO...this is more likely to work with the LRE business model with drop downs from the GP

  • Reply to

    So far, so good on the borrowing base

    by griffin.mungus Apr 2, 2015 4:20 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 2, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Yes, this was expected bb reduced by about 10%....MCEP can continue to pay down borrowings, so when next re-determination comes in Oct. then if bb is reduced by another 10%...MCEP can handle it without facing such high cost of capital hurdles that BBEP & LINE face that you become a zombie operator...unable to do anything for real except put out bogus gibberish for press releases like LINE does.
    Hopefully Mr. Market will give MCEP some credit for avoiding the quicksand that BBEP is stuck in.. and give us unit-holders a higher share price then BBEP.

  • jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 2, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    The tough medicine is to not take a "bad" deal, but to suspend the distribution and pay down the debt...taking a bad deal...just increases BBEP's cost of capital making it even more difficult to compete in the future...kicking the can down the road at a very high cost to unit-holders. There is better value in the upstream MLP space then the high debt laden ones like BBEP.

  • Reply to

    jesse livermore

    by jim_hairball Mar 31, 2015 11:04 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 1, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    well despite Jesse's advice about sitting & not trading...he had to trade..and blew himself up..so to speak...when your own excessive trading causes loses you cannot afford to take...use margin...do not have adequate savings...swing at every pitch

  • Reply to

    Who's buying and why?

    by halvmbs5 Mar 30, 2015 3:13 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Apr 1, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    robert and others:
    I am a former shareholder of BBEP. Had a large chuck of shares(units), but after listening to management at the beginning of the oil price drop telling analyst at MLP conferences not to worry, that for every $10 decline in oil it affects ebitda by only 1%, I sold all my shares(units), made a profit thank god, put the proceeds into MEMP which a few weeks ago I sold out of and put my money into the upstream MLPs with the best ebitda to debt ratios...LRE & MCEP...debt will be the killer for this group..debt holders must be made whole...equity holders suffer 100% of the pain...this $1 Bil. debt deal does not fix BBEP debt problem...it just puts off the day of reckoning...the huge cost of the deal...$60 mil. just to get the bad deal done...very poor job done by management that still collects a pay check every week from unit-holders...IMHO you must fire management and the only way to do so is by selling all your shares... I am very happy I fired these robber barons

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Mar 31, 2015 11:04 PM Flag

    Just sit tight with MCEP & LRE...the wise know who Jesse Livermore was

    Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:
    1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
    2. “It takes time to make money.”
    3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
    4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
    5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
    6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
    7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
    8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

    and finally, the most important thing:
    9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

  • Reply to

    Extended DFC projections

    by griffin.mungus Mar 29, 2015 12:18 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Mar 30, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    It's the unhedged gas number that is off

  • Reply to

    Extended DFC projections

    by griffin.mungus Mar 29, 2015 12:18 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Mar 30, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    thanks for putting pencil to paper....LRE is my largest upstream mlp investment.....I agree with your conclusions.

  • Reply to

    wells fargo

    by jim_hairball Mar 14, 2015 6:26 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Mar 17, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Scottie,
    I have the same problem understanding wells..I just take the sum totals 4 years at $75mil a year in acquisition cap exp is $300 total…Debt is increased by $87mil over the 4 years…excess cash flow for the 4 years (2016-2019) is $57.8 mil…So one can then deduct $300-$87- $58=$155mil….units increase (54.6-29.2)=25.4…So $155mil divided by 25mil.units is only $6.20….But some future additional units will be stock compensation…so wells’s math does work if their assumptions are correct…of course if the assumptions are correct then why is the stocked valued by them at ($5-$7)…My guess is that one does need oil to trade at $70+ by the 4thQ of 2016

  • Reply to

    wells fargo

    by jim_hairball Mar 14, 2015 6:26 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Mar 17, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    wells is modeling the business for MCEP with acquisition cap exp of $75mil each year, partly funded with equity & debt….distribution coverage ratio going from 1.8 to 1.6 to 1.4 to1.2…a lot of assumptions about the future

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Mar 16, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    well it pays to diversify...upstreams getting killed but my portfolio as a whole is up today...and have cash to invest if I so choose...no need to panic...focus on what matters to you...as far as I am concerned...my business is to turnover rental property that is being vacated today...want to sign new lease before the end of the week...rental market looks great for landlords...looking at craigslist...nothing on the market to compete with my property

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Mar 14, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    Wells fargo equity research mcep 3.11.2015
    ………………….…..2015…..….2016……...2017…….....2018…….…..2019
    WTI oil ……….….$58.88...….$73.00……$73.50….....$75.00…..…..$75.00
    Nat. gas………..…...$2.85……..$3.00………$3.75……..$4.00….…....$4.00
    DCF……………….$1.26……...$1.05………$0.99……..$1.02………..$1.02
    Distributions…..…..$0.50….…..$0.55………$0.62….…..$0.71…….…$0.82

    Numbers in millions
    ………………….…..2015…..….2016……...2017…….....2018…….…..2019
    Oil production……..1,435……1,498………1,698….…1,894…..….…2,182
    Nat. gas prod….……443…..……443…..….443………443……..…..…443
    Revenues….…….$102.3….…$105.9….$123.9……$140.0………$153.2
    Operating cost…...$83.0…….$87.1………$95.3……$103.5………$111.0
    EBIT………….……$19.3…….$18.8………$28.6……..$36.5………..$42.5
    Interest exp…….….$6.2……..$7.8……….$9.7……….$11.5……..….$14.5
    Units outstanding…29.2……..34.2…,,…..44.8………...50.5….…...….54.6
    Equity issuances……0……….$75……….$38………....$38…………...$19
    Acquisition cap. Exp….0………$75.……….$75.…..……$75.……….…$75
    Debt to ebita ratio…..3.2x………2.8x………2.6x…..…….2.4x……….…2.7x
    .

  • Reply to

    march 11, 2015 Wells Fargo

    by jim_hairball Mar 11, 2015 2:13 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Mar 12, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    "Liquidity issues keeps them on the sideline"...was the headline on the report...wall street does not like uncertainty...so as long as Lime Rock aka LRE management does not disclose their plans for distribution and how to deal with borrowing base changes...there will be an overhang dragging down the share price...hence what I view as a buying opportunity to invest in a $10 stock for $6....LRE can likely pay out a $1.00 distribution and give it a 10% yield you derive a $10 stock...IMHO

LINE
13.30+0.3800(+2.94%)Apr 20 4:00 PMEDT