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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

jim_hairball 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 11:16 AM Member since: Aug 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    $70-$75 oil - MCEP or ARP?

    by kellyb72601 Jul 28, 2015 10:32 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 29, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    With the help of another poster's work on DCF flows for MCEP...If MCEP were to sell all it's current production for $72.50 & factoring in differentials & assuming the same share count the DCF would be $1.15....then the next question is how much of DCF would be paid out in distrubution & how many shares/units would there be in 2017

  • Reply to

    $70-$75 oil - MCEP or ARP?

    by kellyb72601 Jul 28, 2015 10:32 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 28, 2015 11:22 PM Flag

    arp has better hedges....post hedging mcep has lower production cost...mcep is more oily then arp...mcep has less debt then arp...arp might have to issue equity to pay down debt with a low price environment...while mcep can probably get by with small sales using an atm program

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Jul 25, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    "From peak U.S. oil production numbers earlier this year of 9.5 million barrels, Core believes that U.S. production will decline over 500,000 barrels through year-end 2015, equating to a U.S. decline curve rate, on an annual basis, of 10.5 net. The highest of any major production area in the world.

    These activity levels persist in North America. North America will remain in decline, going into 2016, maybe dropping an additional 500,000 barrels of production. Moreover, internationally, Core does not believe the recent increases in production from the Middle East and Russia are sustainable over the long run. Decline curves in Russia will be greater than the 2.5% net, used by Core lab on a worldwide basis."

  • Reply to

    MEMP getting slaughtered

    by srikantmarakani Jul 22, 2015 2:38 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 23, 2015 12:49 AM Flag

    oil is a commodity and it has always gone up and down. At low prices production will sooner or later decline...as long as demand is there for oil...oil will rise in price...There are some commodities that collapse because of a no demand...that is not the case with oil...I have been in the wild fur dealing business a long time...today demand for raccoons has disappeared and many dealers are stuck with inventory that you cannot give away for any price...that is a real problem...as far as oil companies go the weak will be forced out of business...then in time the oil market will recover
    I will just hold onto my inventory for now in a few shares (units) in ARP and more in MCEP...low debt for MCEP & low production cost...just what I would want to survive in a tough time in the oil patch

  • Reply to

    New presentation sensitivity table

    by marydelapoer Jul 2, 2015 11:13 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 7, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    MCEP's new presentation has the same exact silde for distribution coverage sensitivity..the one new slide is #15 which does add maintenance capex & current distribution into the numbers...showing (excluding all hedging) $50 bbl needed to have 1.01 coverage..also new presentation shows more hedges added to 4Q of 2016...now at 32% hedged at $64.18 basically twice as much as last presentation slide from 5.22.15

  • Reply to

    buy when on sale

    by jim_hairball Jul 2, 2015 2:52 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 7, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Thank you to cfg, for calling mcep ir...I sold out all my eroc in my regular account to buy more mcep at $4.49...a small amount but MCEP is just too cheap...but like mary still have cash.. roth ira account stilling on $25,000 in cash...

  • Reply to

    buy when on sale

    by jim_hairball Jul 2, 2015 2:52 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 7, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    sold all my EROC yesterday in my ROTH IRA account to increase cash to buy more MCEP when on sale...like today 1,000 more shares at $4.58....only trading one upstream MLP for another...maintain diversify holdings...no margin...have more cash to buy if quality investment like MCEP drops another 5% or so....ARP is my risker upstream MLP ...but hold more then 10X MCEP then ARP..GTLA

  • Reply to

    Ugly Monday for ARP?

    by keltus1952 Jul 6, 2015 1:48 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 6, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    6 days in a row Cooperman been buying 30,000 shares of ATLS...been averaging down...he has another chance to average down today...Cooperman recently exited his position in SD...took a bath on that one...one would think that he would be do extra homework on this one after the Sandridge disaster

  • Reply to

    Ugly Monday for ARP?

    by keltus1952 Jul 6, 2015 1:48 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 6, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    perry,
    well I can only afford to buy another 400 shares today, got them at $5.48...4,000 shares will use up almost all my cash...do not use margin...so I stick to small increments for me...GLTA

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Jul 3, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    should ARP have announced their distribution for July already?

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Jul 2, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    well stepping up again...600 shares today at $4.83
    mcep gets cheap enough someone will buy then out...debt holders won't take all the money if this where to happen...

  • Reply to

    Bought 5000 shares at $5.99

    by kxviswan Jul 1, 2015 12:46 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jul 1, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    well i took up 400 shares today, $5.93...distribution to be paid soon...still have cash to invest in my roth IRA...sold off all my FSLR 2 weeks ago...now deploying that cash

  • Reply to

    Mary practicing some kind of voodoo

    by logicaldeduction Jun 29, 2015 12:45 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 30, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    well I sold out of FSLR 10 days ago to raise cash....now using that cash to buy 1,000 share blocks of MCEP about every 10 cent decline...bought more at $4.95...MCEP easy to figure out company..not like companies like FSLR...also MCEP has no bonds holders who can push a debt for equity swap type deal...a debt or death spiral that other upstream mlps face...which is too much risk for me...for me it is all about risk/reward...always found that it not necessary to take a large risk for a better then average return...hence that is why I make MCEP an exception to the rule about averaging down...the stocks I sold to buy more MCEP (LRE,FSLR) are down at least as much as MCEP the last 10 days

  • Reply to

    here are the facts

    by teddy3956538 Jun 26, 2015 5:27 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 27, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Well I will invest my hard earned money when management starts making good decisions...that acquisitions of QRE was a huge mistake...and taking on too much leverage, when oil prices were high, another huge mistake....At today's oil prices next year's DCF should be close to $90 mil or $0.42 0er unit BUT debt to ebitda ratio will be close to 5.7...BBEP will likely be forced to issue more equity regardless of the current share/unit price...hence the reasons why shorts pile on to companies like BBEP...BBEP will have to issue more shares...to raise $400 mil at $4.00 a share...shares outstanding double...distribution is reduced by 50% to $0.20...BBEP management put it's unit-holders in a dangerous & risky investment with their poor decision making in the past...why would I expect them to change..or better yet...they are better places for me to invest like MCEP...FYI sold a large investment of mine in BBEP awhile ago

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Jun 26, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    looking forward to when the upstream mlp might be forced to raise equity to lower debt ratios
    equity raised to current market cap.
    ARP....reduce distribution by 50% then potential 30% shareholder dilution
    BBEP...over 100% shareholder dilution...raise more equity then current market cap
    EVEP...if distribution reduced 50+% & higher oil prices might be able to stake by
    LGCY...if distribution reduced 50+% & higher prices can bail this company out but still will likely need to raise equity
    LINE...over 100% shareholder dilution....raise more equity then current market cap
    MCEP...about the only one that is in good shape
    MEMP...will need to reduce distribution & raise equity eventually...25% at least distribution reduction & equity raise
    VNR...can stake by if prices raise somewhat & hold distribution

    Summary vnr & mcep are the most likely to be able to hold the line and not have large equity issues & distribution cuts...you can somewhat see that reflected in the current yields of this group...with vnr & mcep the only ones with yields under 10% as of today's pricing

  • Reply to

    Management changes

    by ebeads2003 Jun 24, 2015 8:48 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 24, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    yes it does beat digging ditches...I remember the day i was helping a backhoe operator dig a ditch for a new gas line...and overhead we saw a B-1 bomber...and before I knew it the back hoe operator going by what the gas company told us came too close to hitting the main gas line...scratched it...shut the job down and called the gas company....gas line drawn on the pavement was off by like 5 feet

  • Reply to

    Management changes

    by ebeads2003 Jun 24, 2015 8:48 AM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 24, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    a slugfest just to buy 2,000 shares of a $5.31 stock....8 transactions over 1 hour... and finally a order for 2,000 shares was filled

  • Reply to

    cost of funds

    by jim_hairball Jun 21, 2015 5:26 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 22, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    well since you speak of percent to ebitda...also allows me the chance to correct lgcy number...forgot to add preferreds to it's numbers so on thec previous list lgcy should be at 22.1%...so lgcy would actually be last on the list
    Now for this list of (interest +preferreds)/ (ebitda) 2016 projections
    MCEP 13.6%
    VNR 25.3%
    MEMP 33.3%
    ARP 39.7%
    EVEP 39.8%
    LINE 41.3%
    BBEP 43.5%
    LGCY 55.1%
    List shows degree of leverage used to acquire existing assets...clearly in a declining market...the less leverage used the better

  • Reply to

    cost of funds

    by jim_hairball Jun 21, 2015 5:26 PM
    jim_hairball jim_hairball Jun 22, 2015 2:15 AM Flag

    debt to ebitda
    MCEP is the only upstream mlp to have a number under 4.00...this is important to me as an investor...reason is because the firms with a number too high will be forced to swap debt for equity...bbep & line are in way above their heads with debt...huge dilution is the most likely outcome for both of them...memp, lgcy, arp,evep need to divert part of dcf to paying down debt....vnr is only one to have started the process to fix this issue...as an investor I would like to see what memp, arp, lgcy, evep do something concrete about this debt problem...tired of hearing of the same old line about acquiring new assets as the way management intends to fix this problem
    BTW..yes I realize arp, line did small amounts of equity raises recently that both where disasters for unit-holders...lower debt ratios a very small amount at a huge drop in unit price to existing investors... a huge forewarning to every current & future investor

  • jim_hairball by jim_hairball Jun 21, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    2016 interest expense plus preferred payments % of revenues…the lower the cost of funds the better
    MCEP 6.7%
    VNR 15.4%
    LGCY 17.8%
    MEMP 18.0%
    EVEP 19.6%
    LINE 20.7%
    ARP 21.3%
    BBEP 21.8%

LINE
4.04-0.72(-15.13%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT