Nice bounce off the moving average ;-) missed the call by 0.03 as the average bumped up a little haha. Nice move like I expected, but now hope it can hold and support here
Anything is possible. But it already set a pretty solid bottom at a largely undervalued price at $5. Also broke that down trend when it ran from $5 back to $7 then $8. What's the downside risk from here?
$7 looks to be the next level of support and also the moving average
That can be confusing and misinterpreted by some. Different fertilizers are in different percentages of nitrogen by volume (i.e. 25, 28, 32% N). I would assume they were talking 120-150 units or lbs of nitrogen. Coming from a 28-32% by volume product.
Without seeing all details and info first hand, I can't confirm for certain. Just assumption.
To honest, I have no idea. Because for me personally nitrogen is the cheapest fert you can buy. So if or when I need to cut, I cut all the others and keep my nitrogen the same. However this is what others in industry and speculating claim, that farmers may not use as much per acre. And yes less nitrogen will make for smaller crop, but that won't be realized until Dec.
As for financial side I agree. I would think the new larger company with the addition using dirt cheap nat gas for input should draw more interest and less risk for institutions. But guessing most will wait to see what some of the actual numbers are first before jumping on.
I'm jumping on the train........ Well been on for awhile ;-)
As I have similar thoughts, temper the excitement. Yes additional acres will need nitrogen. What we don't know is how much farmers are going to cut back on amount of fert per acre trying to cut costs due to low prices. However this stock still has been undervalued
Sadly corn prices are heading there as well. Hopefully the increased planting which is driving prices lower help offset the expected decrease in fert
I am in a similar situation on all levels including farming as well. However I think there may be more positives in this stock than you are stating. Now yes you must be careful to not get over optimistic as a lot of us have been hammered in this over time. Yet even with lower fert prices, there are a lot of positive changes taking place. 1, the company keeps expanding and increasing production. 2, the good of still a small company is that they will still run at full capacity rather than cut production. 3, the new acquisition of RNF will increase total production and reduce risk of single location down times that always seemed to kill this stock once a year. And lastly input/feedstock prices on both pet Coke and nat gas are at all time lows and now looking to increase much in the near future.
The one big negative, low commodity prices. However corn acreages are still going to be about the same and they WILL use nitrogen.
Looks like someone forgot the saying.... Bulls make money, Bears make money and Hogs get slaughtered!
He was correct when UAN was at $5 but real how much more downside was left in it at that point with merger and divvy back?
Lessons to be learned from this on both sides ;-)
Hahahaha ummmm yeah. Just sit tight. They are notorious for getting it out late. Albeit it does come before Apr 15 but not by much. And most definitely not in time if you are an early filer