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CVR Refining, LP Message Board

jimcalp88 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2016 11:34 AM Member since: Apr 18, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Looks like we are headed to $7 boys and girls

    by jimcalp88 Apr 14, 2016 11:02 AM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Apr 15, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    Nice bounce off the moving average ;-) missed the call by 0.03 as the average bumped up a little haha. Nice move like I expected, but now hope it can hold and support here

  • Reply to

    Looks like we are headed to $7 boys and girls

    by jimcalp88 Apr 14, 2016 11:02 AM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Apr 14, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Anything is possible. But it already set a pretty solid bottom at a largely undervalued price at $5. Also broke that down trend when it ran from $5 back to $7 then $8. What's the downside risk from here?
    $7 looks to be the next level of support and also the moving average

  • Looks like we are headed back to $7. Looks like a good time to reload and add on head of this coming quarter and distribution

  • Reply to

    Record corn planting

    by cosmere214 Apr 1, 2016 1:07 PM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Apr 5, 2016 11:42 PM Flag

    That can be confusing and misinterpreted by some. Different fertilizers are in different percentages of nitrogen by volume (i.e. 25, 28, 32% N). I would assume they were talking 120-150 units or lbs of nitrogen. Coming from a 28-32% by volume product.
    Without seeing all details and info first hand, I can't confirm for certain. Just assumption.

  • Reply to

    Record corn planting

    by cosmere214 Apr 1, 2016 1:07 PM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Apr 4, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    To honest, I have no idea. Because for me personally nitrogen is the cheapest fert you can buy. So if or when I need to cut, I cut all the others and keep my nitrogen the same. However this is what others in industry and speculating claim, that farmers may not use as much per acre. And yes less nitrogen will make for smaller crop, but that won't be realized until Dec.

    As for financial side I agree. I would think the new larger company with the addition using dirt cheap nat gas for input should draw more interest and less risk for institutions. But guessing most will wait to see what some of the actual numbers are first before jumping on.
    I'm jumping on the train........ Well been on for awhile ;-)

  • Reply to

    Record corn planting

    by cosmere214 Apr 1, 2016 1:07 PM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Apr 1, 2016 3:33 PM Flag

    As I have similar thoughts, temper the excitement. Yes additional acres will need nitrogen. What we don't know is how much farmers are going to cut back on amount of fert per acre trying to cut costs due to low prices. However this stock still has been undervalued

  • Reply to

    natural gas

    by keoo2 Mar 29, 2016 11:37 AM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Mar 31, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    Sadly corn prices are heading there as well. Hopefully the increased planting which is driving prices lower help offset the expected decrease in fert

  • Looking good and "normal" and steady. Great consolidation level again here. Though it's fun, I don't like seeing it gap up. Steady and strong she goes.

  • jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Mar 11, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    I am in a similar situation on all levels including farming as well. However I think there may be more positives in this stock than you are stating. Now yes you must be careful to not get over optimistic as a lot of us have been hammered in this over time. Yet even with lower fert prices, there are a lot of positive changes taking place. 1, the company keeps expanding and increasing production. 2, the good of still a small company is that they will still run at full capacity rather than cut production. 3, the new acquisition of RNF will increase total production and reduce risk of single location down times that always seemed to kill this stock once a year. And lastly input/feedstock prices on both pet Coke and nat gas are at all time lows and now looking to increase much in the near future.
    The one big negative, low commodity prices. However corn acreages are still going to be about the same and they WILL use nitrogen.

  • jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Mar 8, 2016 2:13 PM Flag

    Looks like someone forgot the saying.... Bulls make money, Bears make money and Hogs get slaughtered!
    He was correct when UAN was at $5 but real how much more downside was left in it at that point with merger and divvy back?
    Lessons to be learned from this on both sides ;-)

  • Reply to

    K1??

    by callingdrcasey Feb 24, 2016 12:46 PM
    jimcalp88 jimcalp88 Feb 25, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    Hahahaha ummmm yeah. Just sit tight. They are notorious for getting it out late. Albeit it does come before Apr 15 but not by much. And most definitely not in time if you are an early filer

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