I agree with your points. My thought is that short interest has deceased possibly by half now. Taking their small losses. Those who rode it out will stay until the next Q report, hoping in the meantime that commodities crash, or some unforeseen issue happens to stop production. I don't see either happening. Especially after last years plant issue that is now fixed and increased production. Also commodities are strengthening. I think first half of this year will be strong as it ever has for UAN and any possible items to come up to lower pps for shorts won't happen until 2nd half. That being said, there may be another opportunity for a pop when next report comes out as all signs are pointing up and shorts cover once again
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Actually do agree with you on CVR Partners. However look for another place to make a play that hasn't made much of a move yet in a fully valued market, and looking at RNF 52 week range, I just see a play here. Yeah RNF isn't going to see the 40's. But it sure can easily see a 15-20% move as it has lagged as of late with its past issues in production (which are now fixed).
I am actually long in both RNF and UAN at this time. They had both been beaten down as of late and will just naturally have a move up from last months levels due to season as well as increased production of both.
Not saying either is a hold to retire on. But going to be happy with a 25+% gain
But gimmick....... Just a week or so ago here in a response you called a buy? If you wait as long as you mentioned to get in or add, you will miss a large part of the move like today.
Look at their latest statement. RNF production is back at full capacity and possibly above looking forward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If you sold, it's time to get back in. If you held, it's time to add to positions. I was a seller of this stock but now looks time to move in and started a position. Stock looks to have bottomed and started a turn.
RNF has priced in its latest poor results. It's the time of year that fert stocks start to climb, and with latest work done to plant RNF should be at full production at prime time and report a substantially better quarter for Q1 and Q2. Even with increased input costs, the substantial increase in production should make up for a lot.
Crop production in the US is NOT going to be greatly changed. There is still going to be solid plantings in corn.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Can still catch .43 in UAN just announced. Could have been for same price as RNF yesterday. But still not too late
As stated earlier. Sell RNF and buy UAN and catch double digit divvy. The short squeeze is on. Those who didn't buy UAN already missed over $1 today alone
I agree with you. CMG are great marketers, and they are not stupid when it comes to business. They will keep a high percentage of employees under that 30hr mark. However, you cant say that they aren't going to have to eat higher labor costs. With increasing minimum wages, any amount of hours worked in a week costs more. Then on top of that add ACA to some of it. Then add on higher cost of food "to keep its integrity". I don't see how people can deny these situations and headwinds.
I agree with all the concerns in responses here. After all, it has bitten us in the past ie; unforeseen unreported outages, etc. However they have been in full production with increased capacity (as far as we know) so YOY could be beat. That said, short interest is at a 12mo high in UAN. So a good chance you will see a bigger than normal pop here IF we can get some positive news. All fert stocks have been beginning there seasonal rise lately
Wait a minute. How does cold temps sell more UAN to farmers? What does cold temps right now do to corn crops? They aren't even planted yet?
Now....... There has been a move in corn price as of late. Due in large part to increased exports. Higher corn prices will encourage more planting, and therefore use more nitrogen.
Like your positive outlook, but you really need to have accurate info to support.
Now is a good opportunity to sell RNF after its recent bump up. It is now going to hit some resistance. Plus with its lack of production recently it is going to have difficulty making up that ground.
It's also hard to deny UANs divvy which is double that of RNF
RNF has too many negatives and not enough catalysts. Higher Nat gas prices, reduced production due to repairs and only a so so divvy.
BUY UAN! Cheaper input cost in using pet coke rather than Nat gas. Recent increased capacity has been online for awhile now, and consistent double digit divvy currently sitting at 13%.
With the big swings in this stock, there is money to be made on both directions. Have been short on CMG and covered on latest dip. Just missed the buy before the pop. Didn't expect it to be this big.
But the reality is that this company is a bit overvalued, however it is making a compelling play in two major popular areas right now. It is Fast Casual which is the new dining craze, as well as marketed as playing the "healthier" eating while pushing with the natural/whole foods craze. Those two areas are red hot right now and CMG rides that wave.
I still do think it is over priced, but can't deny it's place in the market that nobody seems to hit on the same.
Was hoping for a bigger dip closer to 450 to start a long position, but didn't quite make it.
Now time to watch for a short entry again in a market and economy that is starting to show some weakness in these latest reportings.
Lol so you are still lurking around. Was just curious what your profound explantation was with CMG now days ;-)
Has the overhype and overvalue finally set in? Hope you longs caught your profits while you could. There will another entry point 50 lower from here.