JIm, interesting read below that notes the statistical advantage of drugs that have been granted orphan designation...
As of February 2011, there were 460 medicines to treat or prevent rare disease under clinical trials in the U.S. alone.13 Developmental drivers such as government incentives, shorter development timelines and high rates of regulatory approval are making orphan drug development as economically viable as non-orphan drug development, even though the patient pool is smaller.14 The time from Phase II to market is often shorter for orphan drugs due to shorter and smaller clinical trials and FDA Fast Track designation. In one analysis, the average time from Phase II to launch was 3.9 years for orphan drugs, compared with 5.4 years for non-orphan drugs.2 Once a compound has been granted orphan designation, the odds for approval are high (82%) compared to traditional drugs (35%).15 Of note, orphan designation for the drug in the orphan indication is maintained regardless of follow-on indications. As a result, one model for development is based on lead development of a compound with a relatively quick-to-market orphan indication, followed by consideration of expansion to other indications.
this not a case of simple probability where you are drawing outcomes out of a hat. Weighted averages come into play here. you have to consider the probability of any drug making it through phase 2, which is low. That being said, I am optimistic
Economically Feasible – Shorter Development Timelines
Investing in orphan drugs is at least as economically feasible as non-orphan pharmaceutical drug development due to the higher rates of approval and the shorter development times. For instance, the chances of approval for orphan drugs is very high, at 82 percent, compared to non-orphan drugs, at just 35 percent. Additionally, the time taken from Phase II to market is often shorter due to both smaller clinical trials and to the FDA Fast Track designation. On average, the timeline for orphan drugs is 3.9 years while traditional drugs typically take 5.4 years to reach the market.
With new orphan diseases being discovered every week, the potential for pharmaceutical drug development in this area is huge. While initially the market for these drugs may appear small, this is more than counterbalanced by the revenue opportunities and the quick time-to-market.
find a hobby. You got out, made some money, great. Why spend so much time here now? You're out, right? Step away from the keyboard once in a while and enjoy your good fortune.