Btw the way I've read your last 10 posts, you seem well intentioned but easily convinced by others rosy ideas of the future without the actual data to support their claims. Please read the 10k before you sink anymore money into your position and become more familiar with the debt structure and cost of maintaining production the full cycle cost. And each producing assets production profile. At least then should it not work out you can say you knew the risks.
Okay. First cash on hand increased from forward sale of production which hasn't occurred yet. Total liabilities increased and a portion of interest payments on debt are being capitalized vs. Being paid with cash... Read the 10k please. Look at monitory production payments and capitalized interest. .... Second most of all their oil comes from a few wells Bachus is in terminal decline which means it will produce less and less each quarter. And Alba is barely able to maintain a flat production profile and is having water handling issues. Not to mention rochelle lack of capacity at the Scott platform and constant unscheduled outages.......which mean lower total production in the future over all = lower declining cash-flow to service debt and maintain production and exploration. ....each asset, or well is finite it won't produce forever. Once terminal declines set in eventually the reserve is used up and the well bore, field etc is abandoned. Plus large amounts of ends debt is coming due in the 12 months.....think about all this long and hard....where the capital and resource reserves to support the company long term coming from?
YOu are assuming those options exist. No one will refinance their debt it's to risky, The cashflow is declining and no capital for exploration to increase cashflow. the only way banks refi at a low rate is if the risk is lower, which now is greater that repayment wont happen. At .23 a share the market is saying Bk and equity will be wiped out. common is last in line, once senior secured, unsecured, forward sales, preferred are made whole, nothing left. Sorry. bonds are trading 30cents on the dollar...
And I suppose their will learn to write code as well. Not practical. The customer, GM, coke whatever will seek out the best return on their capital, Fuel does that, human trading desks are a thing of the past much like stock brokers.
I agree we are extremely undervalued. My 12 month target is $36-40. Our rev. is becoming more and more sticky and as rev growth, eco of scales kick in where fixed cost get spread across a larger base and margins explore, much like the software model. the first cd of Windows cost 50million to make then each one after 0.0002 cents.
Alliance Data to Acquire Ad Tech Leader Conversant For Approximately $2.3 Billion PR Newswire EXPANDS DATA-DRIVEN MARKETING FOOTPRINT IN DIGITAL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
more and more advertising if leaving old media and coming on-line, eventually as in the next ten years virtually all ad spent will be online with the exception on bill boards.
WHO will be the winner?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Give me a break, when does a ceo ever admit "Well there is a chance we will run out of money in the next 6 month" You can't be that naive son!
Sadly I agree. Same thing with Lone Pine Resources, ATP, GMXR all great assets but too much debt...shareholders were wiped-out, management got to keep there jobs and received new equity...sad
NO first lien will be made whole, 2nd lien, preferred, convertible bonds, common get 0, it's the nature of being senior in the debt structure, not all debt in equal, its a stair case.
you are dreaming. Debtor will take possession, equity holders will get 0. Same movie different title son.
NO one will partner that it struggling with solvency. No deal until after recapitalization.
TUBE like x+2 has validated the demand and profitability of sector. Good for all players like us
time to hit the ignore button on you BUMPER! Go post on their board
Debt servicing was a lot higher they capitalized a large portion and the forward sales of production which is money already received for production not produced yet, you haven't accounted for those. Lowering interest rate ion a portion is good but it's just a portion, it isn't enough considering all the other factors. Big picture.
It wouldnt matter long term. If you model out the next years production with the standard 7-8% decline and back out the current debt coming due and interest servicing cost and portion of long term debt and maint. cap there won't survive there are only 2 options. 1) downsize the company through asset sales. 2) Bk and debt get converted into equity which means current shareholders would get 0-10 cent on the dollar. The idea that shorts are manipulating is silly, no one shorts a stock that is under a dollar, too much risk of a short term pop of 10 or 20 cents and you lose too much and besides that it is impossible to find shares to borrow. The stock price reflects the high possibility of the equity being wiped out. Oil companies need an inventory of drilling locations which END lacks to replace and grow production. if you want risk with the upside try SARA or HK.
I have done the numbers have you?
did you just go 11k x 365 x $110= a pile of cash in their bank and not take into account it's not all oil or the costs including interest debt servicing and debt coming due in the next 12 months the declining production
11000 BOE/ day (Oil Barrel equivalent) a day at and average of $70 a barrel (Its oil, and dry gas)
is aprox 281 million in rev. 100 million in just interest payment, then taxes, decommissioning, maint. cap, repayment of forward sales, G & A, etc. and of coarse it won't be a stable 11k a day in production, decline will sat in and no capital to dril and where will they drill to replace the lost production from declines? Answer that, Where and how much will it cost? See.....the only hope is asset sales, a reverse split and a large dilution where debt is erased by giving up a large % of the equity.
It's appalling how naive and severely under educated the posts are here.
I've given you all so many factual gems, don't be blind to the facts.