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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust Message Board

jimjones62 1094 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
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  • Reply to

    anaylsis is business

    by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 10 hours ago Flag

    it's refreshing to see you research EIA, Opec, IEA, there is such a wealth of free info available. I read about bazil and irag projection cuts in new supply.....it's interesting when you look at the data of global declines from depletion and that we, as an industry must put on production 6-7 million barrels a day per year to stay flat on the supply side.

  • Reply to

    anaylsis is business

    by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 20 hours ago Flag

    I guess the questions are: can they survive with the current shareholders intact and if so what are the shares worth in a $80 oil price environment? My take on oil is the recovery will be in 2017 and bounce between 80-90$ from 2017-2023 then increase up from there.

    That's why I am giving serious thought to this company because of the hedging through 2016 and low cost of Athen. In some ways I'd rather they sell everything, keep a 4% orri in Perian, keep Denton and Athen fields and become an oil focused MLP

  • Reply to

    anaylsis is business

    by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 20 hours ago Flag

    As far as your point my est maybe to high, by 20-30 million, I can concede that but in my example I am using a 57$ flat oil price which is low. Good thoughts though, next week I'll post a detail specific break out sighting source in 10k and use a 60$ flat oil price. Thanks Zanzibar...

  • Reply to

    anaylsis is business

    by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 20 hours ago Flag

    please look at average production and realized price in q1 and what it is now and strip pricing going forward as well as volumes from new wells in Permian. Rev will continue to increase with flat production because of the strip, in q1 say oil was 42$ and in q4 the strip is 63$ then your unhedged volumes have a 50% increase in take, or rev

  • Reply to

    Value of Athen field and positive cashflow

    by jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 11:04 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 23 hours ago Flag

    and G&A has about 6-7 million in non cash charges annually.

    Thank you for the question, good ones and reasonable to inquire about.

    Happy 4th.

  • Reply to

    Value of Athen field and positive cashflow

    by jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 11:04 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 23 hours ago Flag

    I think you made a mistake, if lease ops expense was 80million/ q then it would exceed total annual rev. for the whole company annually. For Q 1 2015 loe was 20 million for the whole companies and will continue to decline as non-core acreage is sold.

    My example above deals with just the Athen field which makes up half of the companies production. I included 15 million of loe in the "30 million maincap, co2 purchases", fyi: Q1 2015 they spent 2.1 million on CO2 (see margin/cost structure break out in june presentation and it's in the 10k. co2 commitments)

    Plus i included total corp g&A 28 million even though my example is only booking rev from Athen, and the other half of the companies production is profitable and generating cash.

    Loe is much lower Athen field then other assets
    "•Nominal maintenance capex; primarily CO2"

    Again bare in mind, I was just illustrating that the company can stay solvent just on the cashflow from Athen because of it's low cost production and low decline rate and r/p index of 20 years. Being 88% oil in reserves company wide and forecast for 2017 oil in the 80$-90$ they should weather the storm and be fine because no debt is due in 2015, 2016 and importantly they have a strong hedge book 6500 bopd in each year and can internally fund operations to hold production flat and generate free cash to pay down debt in the mean time

    As they sell out non-core, low margin properties and production, and pay down some debt lowering interest expense, LOE also will drop and margins company wide per boe will increase because you are dropping the weakest link. At it's current share price it's silly, yes there is risk but because of the above stated it a 1:5 risk:reward. good odds

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CFO and director resign

    by jimjones62 Jun 30, 2015 11:11 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    So who is now the CFO? It's an important question, isn't it? It's your money right Leggie, don't you want to know who is now stewarding it.

    I could care less whether it rises or falls, now that you have changed your name the Leggie, (thought I wasn't aware of your duel identity, it's easy to correlate) what I care about is your misinformation and for all your huffing and puffing the price continues to decline based on the underlining micro and macro fundamentals.

    Don't worry I will not be far to correct you when you post your fictions and opionions and try to pass them off as facts.

    Again child, I am waiting for you the post 1 piece of research to support your rosy thesis. The board is waiting as am I.

  • Reply to

    Value of Athen field and positive cashflow

    by jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 11:04 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Current share price values company at 1x POSITIVE cashflow from Athen which is silly considering the value of Permian acreage and value of Hilight Field which isn't being considered n price. All in $3-4 Less

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jul 1, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Current production is 12500boe/day of that 8875 is oil.

    Athen field alone produces 6000 barrels of oil a day, a mature co2 recovery field with low decline, 7% a year so maint cap, 57 million barrels of oil reserves, is approx 19 million a year to maintain production.

    Let's only look at Athen
    Numbers don't take into account 6500bo/d hedged in both 2015 @ $85.77, 2016 @ $80.42

    6000 bo/d x 365= 2190000 barrels a year
    say oil averages 60$ in 2015, 2016
    rev 131.4 million
    minus main cap, c02 purchases, 30million
    cashflow of 101 million
    minus total compnay interest expense on debt 45 Million
    corp expense g&a 28 million

    net cashflow just Athen field = 28.4 million
    That number is unhedged and holding oil at 604 through 2015-2016
    Athen is not sexy like Permian but it provided stable cashflow and high margin oil production to maintain companies debt servicing and maint cap expenditures through to when oil recovers by 2017

    Now if you add in the hedged through to jan 1 2017 Athen alone will provide over 100million in free cashflow, covering all the companies obligations and once Hilight Field is sold the margins will increase because Hilight is a good field but it's returns don't compare to Athen

    Current share price values company at 1x cashflow from Athen which is silly considering the value of Permian acreage and value of Hilight Field which isn't being considered n price. All in $3-4

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    gauntlet thrown oilclose over62

    by cat09tail2005 Jun 10, 2015 10:53 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 30, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    I would add REN to the list of buys as well.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 30, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    So the cfo gave 1 days notice...not exactly the kind thing to do? I wonder why?

    Change in Directors or Principal Officers

    Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors;
    Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers

    On June 29, 2015, Charles Lee Reynolds, a member of the Board of Directors ("Board") of New Source Energy GP, LLC ("NSGP"), the general partner of New Source Energy Partners L.P. ("NSLP," collectively with NSGP, the "Partnership"), informed the Partnership that he intended to resign from the Board, effective June 30, 2015. Mr. Reynolds's resignation is not a result of a disagreement with the Partnership on any matter relating to the Partnership's operations, policies or practices.

    Also on June 29, 2015, Richard Finley resigned from his position as Chief Financial Officer of NSGP, effective as of June 30, 2015. In conjunction with his resignation as Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Finley was appointed to serve as a director on the Board of NSGP.

    The Partnership engaged Finley & Cook, PLLC ("Finley & Cook") to provide various accounting services on our behalf during the year ended December 31, 2014. Mr. Finley was previously an equity member of Finley & Cook, holding a 31.5% ownership interest, until October 2014. The Partnership paid Finley & Cook approximately $400,000 in fees for the year ended December 31, 2014.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    current guidance mid-point 12500boe a day, 71% oil = 8875 bo/day
    6500/bo hedged 2015 at $85 = rev of 202 milliom
    2275/bo at average of $57= rev of 50 million
    3625 beo NG, NGL average of $18 per boe including hedges =rev 24 million
    total rev = 276 million
    cap ex = (47.5 million)
    Loe = (92 million)
    G&A = (27 million)
    Prod. Taxes (34 million)
    Debt interest (44 million)
    total expense =( 244.5)
    Net positive free cashflow 31.5 million 2015
    cash and current assets on balance sheet net of current liabilities = 53 million 2015
    total liquidity jan 1 2016 = 84.5

    In 2016 spot prices are higher and 6500 bo/per day are hedged at 80.42, plus the sale of HIlight Field 9.9 million proved, 30 million boe possible and 1700 boe /day 120-150 million. $12-$15 per proved, 60K-80K per flowing boe

    current debt of approx 11$ per beo proved
    Athen 6000 bo/day very low decline, high margin

    fair value per share $3.5-4$ year end 2016

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    Is that uptick in 2015, 2016, 2017? Does business continue to delcine until 2016 2017? No one knows. Drilled wells can sit for years until IRR make it profitable to complete them. So you believe that it will happen in 2015 are that is just an opinion not a fact, the facts are regarding rig count and industry and Basins NSLP serves are below:

    On net a 2 increase in rig count which were in NG out of a total of 859 total working rigs = a 0.002% increase. Not exactly a bullish sign and more important where? Where are rigs being gained and lost?

    I'll tell you:

    S LOUISIANA-INL WATER gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-LAND gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-OFFSHORE gained 1
    KENTUCKY gained 1
    W VIRGINIA gained 1

    OHIO lost 3 (utica, marc. shale) where NSLP has ops.
    TOTAL TEXAS lost 2 where NSLP has ops.

    In the area where NSLP operates services are still in decline, rigs are being dropped and stacked and have yet to even flatten out. Fact. Fact. not opinion fact.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Lies, here's the headline from cnbc "Oil prices cooled on Friday as data from oilfield services firm Baker Hughes showed the decline in its oil rig count entered an eighth month. " "Energy firms pulled three rigs from U.S. oil fields this week, the smallest drop in five weeks, data showed on Friday,"

    As well, I wouldn't celebrate any increase on net in natural gas drilling considering the market is currently over supplied and ngl prices are down 60%+ in a year, any increase in drilling leads to more over supply further pushing NSLP upstream business deeper into the red.

    On net a 2 increase in rig count which were in NG out of a total of 859 total working rigs = a 0.002% increase. Not exactly a bullish sign and more important where? Where are rigs being gained and lost?

    I'll tell you because you time and again prove incapable of doing basic research which professional do:

    S LOUISIANA-INL WATER gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-LAND gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-OFFSHORE gained 1
    KENTUCKY gained 1
    W VIRGINIA gained 1

    OHIO lost 3 (utica, marc. shale) where NSLP has ops.
    TOTAL TEXAS lost 2 where NSLP has ops.

    Info from baker hughes, RESEARCH DONE in 2 mins, DUE DILIGENCE.

    SEE FACTS! In the area where NSLP operates services are still in decline, rigs are being stacked and have yet to even flatten out.

    SPECIFIC, SPECIFIC, FACTUAL, UNBIASED!

    NOW PLEASE TELL ME AGAIN HOW I LIED????
    WAKE UP SON, I'M TRYING TO HELP YOU!

    You don't like me, couldn't care less, I don't want to be friends, I want you to learn how to survive and invest.
    Now has your opinion changed being presented with the truth? Care to retract?

    Look everyone who reads this, you can't rely on opinion or general forecasts be management, you have to dig and understand to specifics, the details or else you are destined to loss all your money in the end. Anyone can make money in an up market but to not loss money in a down market or even make some, that is the goal.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    really? go to the gdp board june 16th and june 18th easy to find jimjones...where I posted it and copy and pasted it here. Hanging your hat on a FRACKLOG? At any given time there are approx 1000+ wells needed to be fracked in this country. It's not a new concept, nor the holy grail. You keep clinging to generalizations, it's to be expected from you because you have little to no knowledge of the industry and finance. AGAIN YOU HAVE NEVER ONCE POSTED ANY SPECIFIC DETAILED ANALYSIS refuting my detailed analysis derived from the info in the 10k and corp presentation. So your opinions, which they are, just opinions, with vast generalizations mean nothing. You are becoming a bore, like a loud mouth drunk who proclaims "I could of been a professional this or that had I only had the chance". But like the drunk the flaw wasn't that the world never gave you the chance, the flaw exists in you, you never having the skill or intelligence to compete in the real world to begin with.

    be specific. you'll learn something.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    after reading that ipso.facto does your throat burn, salty huh?

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    as well here's the point, you have to ask when the supply for oil field services greater outstripping demand what will happen? I suggest to you the same will happen here as will oil. Opec cut prices to force out the shale oil. Same in services, large companies with the scale and capital resources will cut prices to force out small less nibble players to equalize supply with demand so pricing power will return.

    So at what level of working rigs can NSLP survive long term? see your problem is you are short sighted, caring about 1q at a time, the intelligent investor looks further out, in 2016, the current strip pricing on oil, gas, ngl doesn't give a meaningful increase to the total rigs count therefore prices for services will continue to be challenged. With NSLP specifically, the production wwill continue to decline and hedges will roll off, accounts payable, factory payable, contingent payable will have to be paid. As well as a rise in interest rates which their credit line floats against, and PR payments, all below unit holders can get paid. dcf in 2016 will be lower then 2015, so the thought of a distribution in 2016 above .30cent is impossible. apply a 10x multiple and you get a $3 stock. In the mean time equipment ages and commands a slower fee... A vast majority of the book value with has and will continue to erode as customers demand lower rates and /or leave through cuts in ca ex or go BK.

    Their upstream business is unprofitable currently and with declining production, natural declines, each q a well isn't drilled the fixed cost per unit rises, and as the operator drills and NSLP doesn't opt in NSLP looses that drilling location. And becuase to the conventional nature of the play and a slow ramp to peak production when they are able to drill it will take several q to reverse the decline in overall production.

    Now can they survive, I think so but they will have to cut distribution and raise capital through 2 means, expensive convert. PR or untis

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    I direct you to my post where i clearly recommended pva twice. BTW DO you in which basins NG rigs rose, I do, and whether it was drilling or a completion rig? The theme for NG is in the east coast, Utica, Marcellus, where as NSLP primary service asset base is located in the mid contin. and Texas.......just a little color for you.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 4:07 AM Flag

    Wow, I really took the wind out of your sails huh punk? I verified 2 post recommending PVA around it 52 low, June 16th and June 19th on GDP's board.....Is that egg in your eye? As hard as you try to discredit me and try to shift the conversation away from NSLP broken business model, it won't work, truth is truth, fact fact. night son

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 4:03 AM Flag

    and before you get excited go and read the gdp board threads, "out of the 3" refers to the question asked of me about comparing GDP, SD, HK.

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