"Theories..." It's called facts...Your cockiness is only rivaled by your lack of understanding of finance, but by all means keep beating that drum
Adjusted EBITDA. We define Adjusted EBITDA as earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, accretion expense, non-cash compensation expense, non-recuring advisory fees and acquisition costs, unrealized derivative gains
and losses and non-recurring gains and losses.
so say the tax rate is 10% on the service side on 100milion in rev that 10 million PAYABLE in taxes, then minus interest on debt PR payment....how much of the 20million in EBITDA is left son? Starting to see your error.
The principal amount of $16.8 million assumed in the Services Acquisition is due in June 2015. Additionally, MCE entered into notes payable totaling $6.7 million with maturity ranging from 10-48 months.
Now your "oil and gas prices are rising...yes but there production profile is heavily weight towards NG LNG...do the math on the rolling off hedges and strip prices = negative cashflow which is why there are NOT DRILLING a single well in 2015, their words not mine, read the 10k
stick to the facts son. 1) everyone knew they would pay the .20 distribution after PR offering because it was stated in the filing 2 weeks ago. No news there. 2) Debt level hasn't changed, PR are a form of debt and with that cost of servicing debt has increased 38% on an annually basis as a whole 3) The Eighth Amendment (i) permits the Partnership to make cash distributions up to $6.0 million per year to holders of certain equity interests in the Partnership, (ii) amends the terms of a consent letter dated April 8, 2015 so they just paid 3.2 million this q, leaving 2.8 million left to cover the rest of the year, meaning the distribution will be cut again in the next q. going by your logic
You can't be this stupid, "Show you the link..." as if I made it up....GO TO THE SEC filing and the SEC website.
We are offering 1,760,000 11.00% Series A Cumulative Convertible Preferred Units (“Series A Preferred Units”) of New Source Energy Partners L.P.
Holders of Series A Preferred Units may convert their Series A Preferred Units on any January 1, April 1, July 1 or October 1 based on an initial conversion rate of 3.7821 common units per Series A Preferred Unit (which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $6.61 per common unit). Additionally, subject to certain conditions and after certain time periods described elsewhere in this prospectus supplement, we may, at our option, cause all or a portion of the shares of Series A Preferred Units to be automatically converted into our common units.
You are funny, discredit me all you want, my 2 decades of experience say otherwise. It's obvious you don't understand finance and the E&P space, up and services. Why don't you call IR and ask about the back-log of service rev. Just accept I was right, bang on about the cost of capital, not being of to term out revolver with bonds and dilutions. I was. You seem a little too rosey, they dilute by 35% at a 11% interest cost, GREAT!, create a new class of IDR circumventing the making whole of unit holding MQD, GREAT! Rig count of cost in half, service providers are experiencing extreme margin compression, GREAT! Buy more, distribution cut 60% and yield from an average of 10% to 6%, great!....curent strip on NG unprofitable for them, and most of the proved reserves are gas, GREAT..... be realistic....when and what must happen for you to have pause..."It's not your fault...." try running some fully diluted numbers and add in decline rates (they are not drilling to maintain) and margin compression, see what kind of growth there is and DCF.
to recap it converts into 6.6 million shares inline with my previous prediction of dilution by 30-40% because no one would lead them any money. Who was wrong guy? Thank you.
You crack me up. It's not $25 conversion, its 25$ = Initial Conversion Rate: 3.7821 common units per Series A Preferred Unit or 6.61$ a share. Jesus, no wonder you are so clueless. Go to the sec and read the memo...so 11% plus converts at $6.61 a share and there is a safety claws if the unit price declines the conversion increases. I got a bridge for sale too...you can't be this uniformed
Your math is wrong guy. Very wrong. I haven't been wrong, they had to issue stock they couldn't find the money,(issuing bonds etc) they had to dilute equity and erode DCF in the process, and pay an extremely high price for it. 11% plus converts in equity
Everything is bullish, lower cost, increased production, eur's, lower cost, will sell off non-core and pay off revolver, etc etc, excellent call
Sentiment: Strong Buy
6.5 % yield at .40 annually isn't a deal unless the units fall to $4 and pay 10% in line with all the other mlps. Plus the pr are convertible until you know at what price stay away, and what about the min. Quarterly distribution? Think that won,t be changed?
wrong, they have a balloon payment plus you didn't include all the corp cost, salaries, leases, the insurances, etc etc etc last years Selling General and Administrative 22.4 million going by your numbers they will have neg. cashflow of 2.4 million.......which is why they have to raise capital to repay crdit line that has been calling in, use your logic, if their cashflow was so amazing the banks wouldn't be calling in a third of their credit line.....please please please apply basic logic
they stated the distribution for 2015 would be $3 so 1$ for q1 and a further reduction in the future with a 2016 distribution of $2.40-$2.60.... On a 10% yield basis stock has a 40%-50% down side with very little upward positive
they need to create 30million, so issue at least 6million units, diluting base by 35%....plus they need to be able to generate more cashflow in the future to run in place with the unit count increased....
off hand I would say the risk is if the stock rally and is bought out you could lose money. 53. to par is 90% on the bonds but the stock could move uop 20% then bought out at a X prem and your short loss would outweigh the gain on the bonds...not that I think that GDP will survive. I don't recommend shorting in general.
Told you so, you should of listened, do the math,
We expect that the borrowing base under our credit facility will be reduced by approximately $24.0 million to approximately $60.0 million on May 8, 2015. The amount of borrowings outstanding under the credit facility is currently $84.0 million. Under the terms of the Consent Letter, we cannot declare or pay distributions on our common equity if the amount of borrowings outstanding under our credit facility exceeds $54.0 million. Under the terms of the Credit Agreement, we will have three months to repay amounts outstanding in excess of the borrowing base in equal monthly installments beginning 30 days after receipt of notice of the new borrowing base.
Common Unit Distribution
The board of directors of our general partner has not yet declared a distribution to our common unitholders with respect to the quarter ended March 31, 2015. Any such distribution declaration will be subject to our ability to pay down amounts outstanding under the credit facility as discussed above.