Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

jimjones62 45 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 57 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Here's a thought. Find the lowest cost producers in the best basins with the ability to grow production and cover maint cap internally in a 50-60$ oil price. Outside of MLPS I've looked at AREX, large reserves pv10 covers are debts, a 10$ increase in oil price increases value per share $10 (on a NAV value) large blocky acreage in Permian. Current IRR on wells is in the mid teens, debt just came off neg watch and bonds have double in price into the high 40's low 50s, management has a high % ownership, cash cost per boe is below $12....if oil settles in a 50-60 $ range until 2018-19 companies like this will be able to grow and maintain their capture structure. My horizon is 2018 where either 1 of 2 things is possible 1) oil is below $40 all the small oil companies and mlps are restructured wiping out everyone....or....my belief, oil rebounds to the marginal cost to satisfy demand of 96-97 million bpd, between 60-70$ a barrel and some e&p's and mlps will be restructured but those that don't will be up 500-1000% from here. my bet is on this. So I have some common and some bonds in EVEP, MEMP, CEQP, VNR, CRC, AREX,

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2016 10:14 AM Flag

    Bonds are trading at .47-50 today.

    Pretty good compared to most other producers who are at 10-30 cent

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 9:28 PM Flag

    I don't buy the PR shares because of tax consequence of the suspended dividend because the payment still has to be claimed as income even though you don't get it and the head aches that causes filing taxes....rather take the bonds

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    Here's a thought. Find the lowest cost producers in the best basins with the ability to grow production and cover maint cap internally in a 50-60$ oil price. Outside of MLPS I've looked at AREX, large reserves pv10 covers are debts, a 10$ increase in oil price increases value per share $10 (on a NAV value) large blocky acreage in Permian. Current IRR on wells is in the mid teens, debt just came off neg watch and bonds have double in price into the high 30's low 40's, management has a high % ownership, cash cost per boe is below $12....if oil settles in a 50-60 $ range until 2018-19 companies like this will be able to grow and maintain their capture structure. My horizon is 2018 where either 1 of 2 things is possible 1) oil is below $40 all the small oil companies and mlps are restructured wiping out everyone....or....my belief, oil rebounds to the marginal cost to satisfy demand of 96-97 million bpd, between 60-70$ a barrel and some e&p's and mlps will be restructured but those that don't will be up 500-1000% from here. my bet is on this. So I have some common and some bonds in EVEP, MEMP, CEQP, VNR, CRC, AREX, LGCY(bonds only)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    They might be able to do a second lien and buyback bonds...but bonds prices on their debt are up 80% to around 40-45 cent on the dollar

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    $50 price environment

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 23, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    yes they can cover maint cap and keep production growing in a 5-$ price environment. They can also monetize midstream asst for 150 million-ish and buy back bonds at a steep discount lowering all in cost to below $15 a barrel. They are one and the lowest cost operator in USA

  • Reply to

    food for thought

    by jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 3:59 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    debt per share $12, even at 5$ per reserve per share =$20 -12 = 8$ with no value for water treatment infrastructure, 1 billion barrels in possible reserves and large block acreage in the lowest cost area in USA.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    going forward the lowest cost operator will win. Approach cash cost per boe is apporx 10$ a barrel plus EUR per well are increasing 30% which means more production and more reserves per well. including interest servicing cost net cost per beo is below 18$ a barrel.

    Each share has 4 barrels of reserves per share. Nav is above $15 a share net of debt once people figure out they will survive and thrive easily 7-10$ a share in 2 years. they can hedge production now in futures market in the low teen for irr

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 7, 2016 10:45 PM Flag

    BARNES ROBERT A.Officer 4,800 Direct Purchase at $2.11 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 7, 2016 1:15 AM Flag

    strip is close to a point where hedging is possible. A few weeks ago CRC traded in the $4-5 range. I think we will start to see a premium compared to other E&P's that can't generate positive cashflow below $40 like CRC can. It is a survivor, proven in the Q4 call. Those that can survive will thrive. In a $50-60 oil price world of the next 2 years CRC will be able to emerge of grow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 4, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    104k in oil production, current price and 1 year strip on brent give them a cash profit of $13 a barrel

    104000 a day x 365 x $13 =$ 493 million x .9 for a 10% decline rate = $444 million - 60 million of cap ex in 2016 = 384 million in free cash flow just from the oil production in 2016

    this doesnt in lng or ng rev and cashlfow from those 45k boe a day.

    at 5 x 7 positive cashflow= $5-$7 a share plus the forward strip increases pos cashflow in 2017, 2018 and beyond

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    Head to close at a $1

    Facts best corp decline rate, extremely shallow,
    100k + oil production a day with prem Brent pricing
    lots of assets to monitize in pinch
    will generate a few 100 million in free cashflow in 2016
    huge best in class asset base
    NAV +10$ a share
    All in cost below $30 INCLUDING interest on debt L

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    see told you son. in the green

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:28 AM Flag

    So funny one negative nancy who sold at .60 is upset because she sold to soon and now thumbs down anything that speaks of truth. lol. good luck holding it down.

    Facts best corp decline rate, extremely shallow,
    100k + oil production a day with prem Brent pricing
    lots of assets to monitize in pinch
    will generate a few 100 million in free cashflow in 2016
    huge best in class asset base
    NAV +10$ a share
    All in cost below $30 INCLUDING interest on debt

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    Brent at $37 and now CRC turned up

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Oil just turned positive btw

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:07 AM Flag

    I Think people are wising up to this and that's where all the volume up and buying is coming from. Everyone knows a fortune will be made in energy if you find a company that can make money in $50 oil price and survive thi crash. CRC just proved that in their q4...I bet the profit taking ends and we head higher and close above $1 next week

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    The real point is they make money at sub $30 a barrel and they will survive and thrive. They are extremely well positioned to grow and make lots of money in a $40-50 oil price.At .7 or $1 or $3 it is extremely undervalued in a $50 oil environment. And if you believe the new norm is $50-70 range this will be a %500-1000% gain in 3 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    who cares, same % ownership, makes it invest-able for inst. investors, would lower listing cost. a non-issue.

DIA
177.32-1.38(-0.77%)3:26 PMEDT