TUBE like x+2 has validated the demand and profitability of sector. Good for all players like us
time to hit the ignore button on you BUMPER! Go post on their board
Debt servicing was a lot higher they capitalized a large portion and the forward sales of production which is money already received for production not produced yet, you haven't accounted for those. Lowering interest rate ion a portion is good but it's just a portion, it isn't enough considering all the other factors. Big picture.
It wouldnt matter long term. If you model out the next years production with the standard 7-8% decline and back out the current debt coming due and interest servicing cost and portion of long term debt and maint. cap there won't survive there are only 2 options. 1) downsize the company through asset sales. 2) Bk and debt get converted into equity which means current shareholders would get 0-10 cent on the dollar. The idea that shorts are manipulating is silly, no one shorts a stock that is under a dollar, too much risk of a short term pop of 10 or 20 cents and you lose too much and besides that it is impossible to find shares to borrow. The stock price reflects the high possibility of the equity being wiped out. Oil companies need an inventory of drilling locations which END lacks to replace and grow production. if you want risk with the upside try SARA or HK.
I have done the numbers have you?
did you just go 11k x 365 x $110= a pile of cash in their bank and not take into account it's not all oil or the costs including interest debt servicing and debt coming due in the next 12 months the declining production
11000 BOE/ day (Oil Barrel equivalent) a day at and average of $70 a barrel (Its oil, and dry gas)
is aprox 281 million in rev. 100 million in just interest payment, then taxes, decommissioning, maint. cap, repayment of forward sales, G & A, etc. and of coarse it won't be a stable 11k a day in production, decline will sat in and no capital to dril and where will they drill to replace the lost production from declines? Answer that, Where and how much will it cost? See.....the only hope is asset sales, a reverse split and a large dilution where debt is erased by giving up a large % of the equity.
It's appalling how naive and severely under educated the posts are here.
I've given you all so many factual gems, don't be blind to the facts.
-They cant increase Alba, fighting declines and water handling issues, current drilling (infill) is barely able to keep production flat.
-They can't increase Bacchus field is already in terminal decline and moving into water injection, Bacchus was designs for rapid depletion. (see original development plans)
-Rochelle they can't increase because Scott platform is a max of 60million a day, sure they could be given more but as we have seen if Nexen needs the volumes for their own wells then we are out of luck.
Other operators could give a rats butt if END needs them to drill (remember END doesn't have to capital anyway) and has no say in development, Nexen Apache etc would rather see END in BK, then buy their working interest in the fire sale.
You haven't really done any research, the problem is debt and declining production and even if they got a partner to do a 100% carry on Rossini no rev. for at least 4-6 years. oil discoveries in the North Sea, take years to develop by then END will have been long insolvent.
as in the cap ex program, and then by next year we will be producing north of 50k barrels of oil a day, self funding, no new debt or equity.
Exactly! Looking at lateral length when judging IP is extremely important. Based on those results that rock would have produced a 2000 barrel a day IP on the normal 7000ft lateral. Pretty awesome! Really looking forward to the coming consolidation in the play.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
key here or flaw in your NAV of reserves 1) its not all oil, 2) there is decommissioning cost, production cost, maintenance cost, transportation, taxes, etc.. no one buys reserves for 100$ a barrel or anywhere near the spot price....at most they pay $20-30 a barrel for oil and NG is substancially lower 8-16 a boe depends on market it will be sold into. so the approx value of 24millions boe at a 50/50 split oil/DRY nat gas is 300-400million, that's it, that's what someone may pay if you are lucky, so subtract net debt 800 million you have 0 equity, facts are facts.
if you really have to be invested in END then buy call options or buy the bonds. At least with the bonds after BK you are senior to the common shares and perferred
The credit agency has priced a 22% chance of a default in the next 12 months which explains the share price, if a default happens then equity will be wiped out as was with ATP, GMXR, LPR....if they sell assets only proved producing will fetch enough money to make even a dent...then the problem is the cashflow is severely damaged leading to the same problem....viscious cycle, I personally believe restructuring is in the cards. The big mistake most of the cheer leaders here make is they confuse NAV or reserves with cashflow, you can have billions of barrels in reserves but if they are not producing, meaning creating positive cashflow to fund production growth and interest payments you are sh%t out of luck and the creditors take the lions shares in the courts.....so you are wise to wait....sad company did have potential but failed over and over to execute.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
They are proving up the TMS acreage we have yet to post our next well results, but the GDP result certainly bode well for our future, especially the EUR curve GDP is proving up.
With our underlying asset base we could easily support a 12billion market cap in the next 2 years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
because all boe's are not the same, there's oil, LNG, dry gas, etc each valued differently. And each with it's own margin
That's careless to count cash but hot debt....I understand you really really want it to recover but logic says they will restructure, period. debt coming due, no new production to offset declines in current wells, exploration needs 100;s of millions...best case is a reversal split with a massive dilution
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I'm not short, wish I was that, just disappointed my management and a realist. The seeking alpha article is very flawed. Do your own research friend. Everything I stated is a fact. Go to search UK north sea oil production and read the data, make your own model of terminal declines then. I encourage you, but if you don't know what that means, get educated on the oil and gas industry.
Yes there is upside, I just want the under educated oil investor to have the hard facts and the risks. Could double, triple or go to zero in the next 16 months, fact.
there is no growth, that's a problem, sure they have acreage but drilling and exploration in capital intensive and they are tapped out and current assets are in decline, so is cashflow.... do some D&D before diving in
Peak oil did happen concerning conventional production, then deep water came which peaked, soon shale will as well, and peak doesn't mean it's all gone, It's about production, Conventional oil returns were in simple terms was 1 barrel of oil expended gave you 100-10000 barrels and declines were shallow where as shale returns are about 1 barrels uses returns only 10 and production declines are very steep. You have to run harder and harder to stay in one place or you start going backwards. And the margin cost per barrel increases with each new barrel Conventional was 10$ a barrel, shale in 45-80$ deep water 60-90 same with oil sands.
In the end the MLP's I believe are one of the best buyers 9% return a year and long life conventional reserves that benefit from the margin cost globally increasing the price per barrel sold. Dry gas in the opposite, lots of cheap sources to fulfill demand when it grows. Peak Gas in decades away
Sentiment: Strong Buy