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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

jimjones62 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2016 1:50 AM Member since: Apr 25, 2012
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  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 26, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    earning will be bad that's a given but there all in cost is in the mid 35$ including interest so they now look like they can survive and eventually thrill, especially with the scale and low decline rates

  • Reply to

    452.6M shares outstanding.

    by iitriumvirate Feb 26, 2016 5:44 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 28, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    There has been a wave of artificial selling pressure, occidentals dump into the market, index funds selling because it was removed from the sp 400 mid-cap index.....those events combined flooded the market with supply of crc shares causing a price collapse or a buying opportunity. The supply is being mopped up as we have seem in the volumes and the share price should recover to a more reasonable (or unreasonable, like most e&ps) evaluation. The facts are liquidity is good, the production decline rate is best in class sub 10%, with NG below $2 and we get brent pricing in cali the steam floods are very profitable. the metrics on a boe basis are excellent debt to pdp, interest servicing to proved producing BOE, 150K+ boe a day production, etc etc and lots and mid stream assets that can be monetized in a crunch. in q 4 the all in cut per boe including interest servicng was around $35 pretty great when you look at the strip going forward as far as wondering will the capital structure survive...Brent will lead over wti and thats where we price. So getting back to $3-5 range in a year in very possible in a $40-45 brent price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 29, 2016 10:43 PM Flag

    borrowing base is linked to hedges, so can't do that.

  • Reply to

    Excellent earnings! BUY BUY BUY target $1

    by mactrade1 Feb 29, 2016 4:40 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 1, 2016 1:36 AM Flag

    Wonderful q. 2016 will generate a lot of free cash flow. Buy back bonds most likely. Reduce debt. Lower cost per Boe. Pretty strong

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 1, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    based on guidance of production, capital spending, cash cost all in including interest, company will generate 80-90 million in positive cashflow. And if they can get all in cash cost down to the $27 range as stated they will generate over 400 million in unlevered positive cashflow for 2016 even with 10-15% production decline based on current strip pricing for brent, that cash can buy back 1 billion in bonds at .40 on the dollar, eliminating 80 million a year out of expenses and lowering cash cost in 2017

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    who cares, same % ownership, makes it invest-able for inst. investors, would lower listing cost. a non-issue.

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    The real point is they make money at sub $30 a barrel and they will survive and thrive. They are extremely well positioned to grow and make lots of money in a $40-50 oil price.At .7 or $1 or $3 it is extremely undervalued in a $50 oil environment. And if you believe the new norm is $50-70 range this will be a %500-1000% gain in 3 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:07 AM Flag

    I Think people are wising up to this and that's where all the volume up and buying is coming from. Everyone knows a fortune will be made in energy if you find a company that can make money in $50 oil price and survive thi crash. CRC just proved that in their q4...I bet the profit taking ends and we head higher and close above $1 next week

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Oil just turned positive btw

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    Brent at $37 and now CRC turned up

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 11:28 AM Flag

    So funny one negative nancy who sold at .60 is upset because she sold to soon and now thumbs down anything that speaks of truth. lol. good luck holding it down.

    Facts best corp decline rate, extremely shallow,
    100k + oil production a day with prem Brent pricing
    lots of assets to monitize in pinch
    will generate a few 100 million in free cashflow in 2016
    huge best in class asset base
    NAV +10$ a share
    All in cost below $30 INCLUDING interest on debt

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    see told you son. in the green

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by big_cup_a_jo Mar 2, 2016 10:12 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 2, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    Head to close at a $1

    Facts best corp decline rate, extremely shallow,
    100k + oil production a day with prem Brent pricing
    lots of assets to monitize in pinch
    will generate a few 100 million in free cashflow in 2016
    huge best in class asset base
    NAV +10$ a share
    All in cost below $30 INCLUDING interest on debt L

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 4, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    104k in oil production, current price and 1 year strip on brent give them a cash profit of $13 a barrel

    104000 a day x 365 x $13 =$ 493 million x .9 for a 10% decline rate = $444 million - 60 million of cap ex in 2016 = 384 million in free cash flow just from the oil production in 2016

    this doesnt in lng or ng rev and cashlfow from those 45k boe a day.

    at 5 x 7 positive cashflow= $5-$7 a share plus the forward strip increases pos cashflow in 2017, 2018 and beyond

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 7, 2016 1:15 AM Flag

    strip is close to a point where hedging is possible. A few weeks ago CRC traded in the $4-5 range. I think we will start to see a premium compared to other E&P's that can't generate positive cashflow below $40 like CRC can. It is a survivor, proven in the Q4 call. Those that can survive will thrive. In a $50-60 oil price world of the next 2 years CRC will be able to emerge of grow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 7, 2016 10:45 PM Flag

    BARNES ROBERT A.Officer 4,800 Direct Purchase at $2.11 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    going forward the lowest cost operator will win. Approach cash cost per boe is apporx 10$ a barrel plus EUR per well are increasing 30% which means more production and more reserves per well. including interest servicing cost net cost per beo is below 18$ a barrel.

    Each share has 4 barrels of reserves per share. Nav is above $15 a share net of debt once people figure out they will survive and thrive easily 7-10$ a share in 2 years. they can hedge production now in futures market in the low teen for irr

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    food for thought

    by jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 3:59 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 18, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    debt per share $12, even at 5$ per reserve per share =$20 -12 = 8$ with no value for water treatment infrastructure, 1 billion barrels in possible reserves and large block acreage in the lowest cost area in USA.

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 23, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    yes they can cover maint cap and keep production growing in a 5-$ price environment. They can also monetize midstream asst for 150 million-ish and buy back bonds at a steep discount lowering all in cost to below $15 a barrel. They are one and the lowest cost operator in USA

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    $50 price environment

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