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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

jimjones62 130 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
  • Reply to

    A little easy math for everyone...

    by hsctiger2009 Feb 20, 2015 5:54 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 21, 2015 2:57 AM Flag

    that rev ex tac he is correct gross rev is est at 600 miilion

  • Reply to

    2015 rev ex-tac annually growth of 23%

    by jimjones62 Feb 20, 2015 9:04 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 20, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    ADJUSTED EBITDA POSITIVE
    "Rocket Fuel reported lower than expected
    4Q14 results, with revenue growing 63% year over year to $139.5
    million versus consensus and CS estimates of $147.3 million and
    $140.3 million on lower than expected customer growth. However, modestly
    lower than expected OpEx resulted in a modest bottom line beat, with adjusted EBITDA of
    $2.8 million versus our estimate of ($0.2) million."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Feb 20, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    Guidance : So q1 2015 rev ex tac of 57-58 million equally 20% for year, so 2015 rev ex tec approx 290 million or a 23% growth over 2014.... I agree with some of you that management didn't explain this clearly. If they can cut expenses by just 1.7% they will be cashflow positive from operations. Their employee compensation needs to come down...Risk rewards. Customer count increased over 15%...recurring rev from existing customer spend 130%....trends are positive

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    posted above tiger

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    If you want to be in oil and Gas upstream I would look at BBG (100% hedged in 2015 and 50% in 2016) and APEX (self funding in q4 2015)both have very low debt and cost of production and will be growing production in the low teens in 2015. As far as midstream mlps wise MEP is my choice. do some digging and see if you agree, don't take my word for it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    current net debt is approx 800 million including PR. Period

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 2:01 AM Flag

    The animal house reference is beautiful btw.

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 1:50 AM Flag

    ""The TMS play break even is around $40-50 range depending upon the Well, and anything over $50 per BBL they will be making a profit. Oil will move back to $60 with the Middle east turmoil OIl price will climb back to $70 by the end of 2015.""

    Again unleveled break evens, GDP had 800million in debt including PR and can't service debt and maintain production unless oil is way over $95...so based on your oil price forecast they are going to have to restructure or raise equity.

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 17, 2015 1:45 AM Flag

    Thank you someone who actually READS the 10k, 80 million in interest expense in correct.....AGAIN READ the financial stmt Jagen.....it's the basic simple research that tells me you and others have no idea what you are buying. And I agree with tc16 the assets have great value but GDP can't sell them to free up their balance sheet because of the terms of seduced debt requires assets who to go to them first and the selling of producing property will lower their borrowing base and cause the line to be called in accelerating them towards insolvency.

    My fond regards to TC 16 who is an investor who actually seem to due some DD and read the 10k great job!.

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 16, 2015 7:41 PM Flag

    And even if you could get a 10% Irr at 50$ or 35% at $70 They still are insolvent within 10 months, you are missing the point, the point of all this back and forth is you view the IRR as if the company was debt free, deploying it's own capital, it's not, over 800 million in debt. To pay your dividends on PR requires cashflow, and means each dollar deployed has to generate IRR well above 65% because of the low production base this company has vs. interesting servicing. Do you know how long it takes a well to payout at a IRR of 10%, 30% 50%....if not dig and learn so you can model how they intend to survive to fund themselves in q4 2015

    Do the math if you produce 5000/ oil, day or 1825000 barrels a year. debt servicing is 80 million a year divide them= $43.83 of interest servicing on each barrel produced so if your all in cost is 50, drilling everything accept the debt carrying cost you need a oil price of 93.83 just to keep the doors open and the banks from taking the company. But wells decline so if you don't spend money and drill, next year fewer barrels to cover that fixed expense, so if need to spend 50 million to keep that 5000 bpd of oil flat then what price do you have to sell your oil to maintain flat production, pay all your cost.....do the math it adds another 27.40 of cost to each flowing barrel at 5000/bpd......so a company with production of 5000bpd, debt servicing of 80million a year, break even at $50 per barrel, and 50million of maint cap to sustain flat production profile must sell its oil for $121.23 to survive and live within cashflow, and don't forget the debt comes due like gdps in 2017then what....are you starting to understand your error? Can help you anymore then I have. you think the dividend is safe, think again, it's the first to go, in BK PR get usually nothing.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Jimjones? Where r u?

    by smither1970 Feb 13, 2015 10:10 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 15, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    I've said all that needs to be said. The reality is GDP to survive under it's current capital structure requires oil at at least $95 a barrel by q4 2015 which is highly unlikely. The downside is restructuring which is highly likely.

    You cheer all you want and that fact will not change. All agency and investment banks have forecast of oi in the 50$-60$ average for 2015. 2016 high $60-70.....GDP will be out of money in 6-8months with all credit lines exhausted and no way to raise debt. Current secured trades at .40 meaning all secured, PR are valued at a ZERO recovery factor. They have no ability to fund ops in 2016 to maintain production to service debt.

    It's done, you just don't know it yet. If you are a trader in and out good for you, as an investor there is no long term viability. I post facts and numbers, you "the stock went form $30-$2 and is up .30cents so I'm right......pretty silly....where's your numbers to support GDP survival into 2016? And at which oil price and production level? You can't because frankly you have proven numerous times you lack the financial ability to model that.

    Happy trading kid. Don't put all your money on one horse.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 12, 2015 12:43 AM Flag

    but in the mean time debt has to be serviced by internal cashflow which is negative...

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 12, 2015 12:40 AM Flag

    Actually the common has a good chance of going up if the dividend were to be suspended, showing that management is willing to take action to firm up liquidity, and Pr are just debt, Pr have no ownership take. It's pretty obvious that they have to do something and asset sales in this market are not the best idea, land prices at a 7 year low and selling production will only compound their cashflow problem

  • Reply to

    EXXON looking to buy assets in Perian Basin

    by jimjones62 Feb 11, 2015 10:22 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 11, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    (missed the M above in Permian , grand kids spilled juice on my key board last week) could explain strength among the Permian players today outperform general oil E&PS

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Feb 11, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    with low leverage and stack play I would think AREX would be worth a look to them, we will see....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 9, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    You have said you won't buy common only PR, well the saving grace is if they get a rally in price they can issue millions of shares, dilute the hell out of the stock but buy time. The debt market is closed to them, so between asset sales and secondary they might make it to 2017

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 9, 2015 3:30 AM Flag

    you trust a companies presentation over unbiased geological research. And even if you could get a 10% Irr at 50$ or 35% at $70 They still are insolvent within 10 months, you are missing the point, the point of all this back and forth is you view the IRR as if the company was debt free, deploying it's own capital, it's not, over 800 million in debt. To pay your dividends on PR requires cashflow, and means each dollar deployed has to generate IRR well above 65% because of the low production base this company has vs. interesting servicing. Do you know how long it takes a well to payout at a IRR of 10%, 30% 50%....if not dig and learn so you can model how they intend to survive to fund themselves in q4 2015

    Do the math if you produce 5000/ oil, day or 1825000 barrels a year. debt servicing is 80 million a year divide them= $43.83 of interest servicing on each barrel produced so if your all in cost is 50, drilling everything accept the debt carrying cost you need a oil price of 93.83 just to keep the doors open and the banks from taking the company. But wells decline so if you don't spend money and drill, next year fewer barrels to cover that fixed expense, so if need to spend 50 million to keep that 5000 bpd of oil flat then what price do you have to sell your oil to maintain flat production, pay all your cost.....do the math it adds another 27.40 of cost to each flowing barrel at 5000/bpd......so a company with production of 5000bpd, debt servicing of 80million a year, break even at $50 per barrel, and 50million of maint cap to sustain flat production profile must sell its oil for $121.23 to survive and live within cashflow, and don't forget the debt comes due like gdps in 2017then what....are you starting to understand your error? Can help you anymore then I have. you think the dividend is safe, think again, it's the first to go, in BK PR get usually nothing.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Mid Stream help

    by j157272 Feb 7, 2015 9:00 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 8, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    MEP,

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 8, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    There is EVERY need to eliminate the PR dividends and escrow it to ensure solvency in 2016....You should write fiction, CAN ANYONE produce as report that states the TMS is profitable at $50....NO that is a lie, you are lying to the board, stop it, it's childish, google oil production break evens in us shale.

    "Break-even points for US Shale" The Grid, Blommberg.
    TMS $78.57

    Wood Mackenzie -$72-$80, even with service cost down 10-20% the needle moves a few dollars and that's just to breakeven, then interest servicing, PR dividends, Mait caps

    And to say someone would buy the EFS in this environment is equally silly, the current strip produces a negative return, it doesn't matter how much they spent on it already why oil is 53$ a barrel and 2 years out it's below 65$, you can't buy it here and hedge out he future production at a profit. AS well no cap it being spent to keep that Production stable or flat it's in terminal decline and will go from 2000 beo a day to 1200-1300 by year end 2015.....How about you are not allowing to post unless you can provide facts backed by sources another then your gut and "well the guy has his name on the shingle so buy buy buy"

    They should cancel dividend, sell what they can, prepare for the put option on the 2017 debt and if they survive start buying back the Pr for pennies on the dollar in 2018-2019 to begin restoring shareholder value.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Feb 8, 2015 2:23 AM Flag

    still doesn't make the concerns any less valid though, they should cancel the Pr dividends to conserve cash and ensure more time for the the common holders...

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