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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

jimjones62 203 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
  • Reply to

    they should sell all non operated acrage

    by jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:24 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 4, 2015 10:16 PM Flag

    In any event they don't need to sell anything including stock down here, they are in a sound financial position to weather the next 12 months, the "x" factor is oil prices... If in 2016 these average $75-80 then EOX will be fine and trade in the 3-5$ range.

    As far a balance sheet net liabilities are 259 million once for back out the non cash item "Oil and Natural Gas Properties Included in Account Payable 107,957,324"

    current liabilities= (30million)
    current assets=57 million
    cash from stock offer =26million
    net after cash after paying all current liabilities= +53million
    cap ex 2015 =75 million

    gap in funding 22 million before production rev on guidance of 4000/bo per day (i take the low end to be safe

    1Q 2015 Average 4,150
    2Q 2015 Average 4650
    3Q 2015 Average 4450
    4Q 2015 Average 4150

    2015 average = 4350 per day or 1587750 barrel for 2015
    hedging =2015 Total/Average 453,227barrels at $96.24
    hedged rev = 43.6 million
    unhedged rev (1134523 barrel at average of $45 = + 51 million
    total rev = +94.6 million
    minus funding gap cap ex= 72.6million
    ( my best estimate
    production expense= 15 million
    production taxes= 8 million
    General admin expense =25 million
    debt interest= 6 million
    Total positive cash at year end = +18.6 million without tapped credit line
    (Average realized price per barrel after hedges 59.83)

    They will drill 8 wells add 3.5 million barrels to proved developed after what they produce in 2015 giving them more pdp's to secure credit line in 2016 and in 2016 forecast is $75-80 for oil

    Risk, yes, but far from insolvent. upside in 12-18 months is 400-700%
    If you bought at $6 that's terrible but to buy at .73cent or to average down here i believe is most advantageous.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    they should sell all non operated acrage

    by jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:24 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 4, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    their debt is very manageable. the bonds interest rate is 2% or just 3 million a year to carries 150 million in debt.

    Other then that the credit line which was based on half the reserves they have now booked for 2014, though the price desk for 2015 is about 60% of 14, 13, the volume of production, PDP and PUD have all grown be 80-100%

    It is a notably tenuous time for all E&P's but EOX because it has incredibly low interest servicing cost per flowing barrel and low leverage to it's acreage base, I believe they will make it into 2016-17 when oil prices I believe will be in $80 range

  • Reply to

    they should sell all non operated acrage

    by jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:24 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 4, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    recent lease auction in Bakken proves different

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:50 AM Flag

    if only we could start exporting our oil, and have a actual free global market for crude. It is silly that we import so much when we have so much sitting around. Its political, Ideally we would build pipelines to transport crude, they are lower cost and safer but then the Railroads block them and some refiners who benefit from the differentials on bakken crude oil block as well...the founding fathers would be ashamed...we need another John Rockefeller to break the railroad monopoly of oil transportation. It's anti-American.

  • Reply to

    Re- Determination?

    by md841 Apr 1, 2015 9:32 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:27 AM Flag

    only if the land sold was used to collateralize the loan, it;s non core acreage sold so my guess in no.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:24 AM Flag

    They could sell all non operated and redeploy in acquiring operated

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 3, 2015 2:22 AM Flag

    neither, it just gives them the right to sell if they want or need to, current liquidity is good through 2015...

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 2, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    The 107,957,324 included in payable in a non-cash item related to issuing stock to acquire acreage and production in 2014....point is NON-CASH ...See 2014 Cash Flow Statement for clarity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 3 wells average 1027 bopd
    EMERALD OIL, INC, TALON 3-9-4H, SESW 9-149N-102W, MCKENZIE CO., 1096 bopd, 3509bwpd-BAKKEN
    EMERALD OIL, INC, D ANNUNZIO 3-7-6H, NWNE 18-148N-102W, MCKENZIE CO., 738bopd, 4386 bwpd-BAKKEN
    EMERALD OIL, INC, D ANNUNZIO 5-7-6H, NWNE 18-148N-102W, MCKENZIE CO., 1246bopd, 5141
    bwpd-BAKKEN
    Something worth noting and clearing up:
    Accounts Payable $ 120,136,903
    Oil and Natural Gas Properties Included in Account Payable(stock issued in 2014 to acquire)
    $ 107,957,324
    Net account payable cash relates $ 12,179,579
    Cash as proforma feb secondary $12,389,230 + 26 million = 38,389.230
    Current ratio of approx 3 x net payable, very strong

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 2, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    no, but thank you for pointing out another oilman on the boards who can add concrete value to the board vs. all this hoping and wishing or doom and gloom. 'smither still waiting on some actual numbers from you, hope you are learning something in the process.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 1, 2015 1:17 AM Flag

    Another point to remember in comparison to shale oil well is, the wells EXXI brings on production ramp up slower and decline more gradual. Meaning in this price environment the more of these type of well will capture the higher oil price in the forward strip, where as a bakken, TMS, Eagleford produce 70+% of the EUR in the first 2-3 years. It's a point to consider well looking at investing in the oil patch onshore unconventional or offshore

  • Reply to

    How much dilution is it?

    by halvmbs5 Mar 30, 2015 6:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 30, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    I believe each Pr converts 1 for 1 into common units....

  • Reply to

    Prices are holding

    by ikillatspades Mar 30, 2015 9:52 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 30, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    that is true but remember to include the balance sheet and full cycle cost including interest servicing. Currently the question is what price per barrel is needed to pay the .50 a year plus all debt servicing and generate enough free-cash flow to support a flat production profile? I sold out a month ago but was thinking of buying back in until this news today.....i have to rework all my numbers. I need to make sure they have the capability to grow payout in a 80-90$ oil price. It is possible the .50 payout will stay flat for the next 3-5years...that's the risk, depletion of the asset base with no growth.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BreitBurn Energy Partners Solves Its Debt Problem

    by w.butle Mar 30, 2015 9:48 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 30, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    In a stable 90$ oil price they might be able, over time to get the distribution to 1-1.3....Bad timing levering up for QRE without a means to term out the debt... Anyone do a diluted share count yet to see how this effects NAV? Thanks

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2015 2:21 AM Flag

    So prove it. Inspire us with your knowledge, it's in your best interest to share it, convince other to buy, including me, show us WHY you are right. Production number, realized price, easy for someone who knows the company so well.... Otherwise I imagine the passive reader will conclude if they haven't already how full of hot air you are. Time to actually earn your place on the board.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2015 1:33 AM Flag

    I agree, I believe the low is in for oil and cashing out here and riding the price curve up compounds the cashflow.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Mar 27, 2015 1:31 AM Flag

    Louisiana Light sweet crude at a $8 premium to WTi and $2 to Brent, That's a great hedge against the oil shale in the north where bakken crude is in the high 30$ a barrel.

    In this environment being in the gulf is a must.

  • Reply to

    More shorting today!

    by smither1970 Mar 26, 2015 11:17 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2015 1:24 AM Flag

    So prove it. Inspire us with your knowledge, it's in your best interest to share it, convince other to buy, including me, show us WHY you are right. Production number, realized price, easy for someone who knows the company so well.... Otherwise I imagine the passive reader will conclude if they haven't already how full of hot air you are. Time to actually earn your place on the board.

  • Reply to

    More shorting today!

    by smither1970 Mar 26, 2015 11:17 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 26, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Proves what exactly? That you still have no clue on the financial well being of GDP. Or that you only post when the stock mores up a few cents, or does it prove you rely one snappy one liner to support your investment thesis...I'm still waiting for you to post 1 fact about how they will survive? On the other hand I have posted volumes of actually numbers. Prove to everyone how smart you are son. Post your breakeven formula for their production and oil price to stay alive. The reality is regardless if people are buyer selling shorting it doesn't change the companies fundamentals... You have proven only how ignorant and stubborn you are. Keep holding and buy more, it seems it'll be the only way to break you of your destructive and lazy investing habits.

  • Reply to

    More shorting today!

    by smither1970 Mar 26, 2015 11:17 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 26, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Hang in there kid. It's the only way you will learn.

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