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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

jimjones62 216 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 29, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    current guidance mid-point 12500boe a day, 71% oil = 8875 bo/day
    6500/bo hedged 2015 at $85 = rev of 202 milliom
    2275/bo at average of $57= rev of 50 million
    3625 beo NG, NGL average of $18 per boe including hedges =rev 24 million
    total rev = 276 million
    cap ex = (47.5 million)
    Loe = (92 million)
    G&A = (27 million)
    Prod. Taxes (34 million)
    Debt interest (44 million)
    total expense =( 244.5)
    Net positive free cashflow 31.5 million 2015
    cash and current assets on balance sheet net of current liabilities = 53 million 2015
    total liquidity jan 1 2016 = 84.5

    In 2016 spot prices are higher and 6500 bo/per day are hedged at 80.42, plus the sale of HIlight Field 9.9 million proved, 30 million boe possible and 1700 boe /day 120-150 million. $12-$15 per proved, 60K-80K per flowing boe

    current debt of approx 11$ per beo proved
    Athen 6000 bo/day very low decline, high margin

    fair value per share $3.5-4$ year end 2016

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    Is that uptick in 2015, 2016, 2017? Does business continue to delcine until 2016 2017? No one knows. Drilled wells can sit for years until IRR make it profitable to complete them. So you believe that it will happen in 2015 are that is just an opinion not a fact, the facts are regarding rig count and industry and Basins NSLP serves are below:

    On net a 2 increase in rig count which were in NG out of a total of 859 total working rigs = a 0.002% increase. Not exactly a bullish sign and more important where? Where are rigs being gained and lost?

    I'll tell you:

    S LOUISIANA-INL WATER gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-LAND gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-OFFSHORE gained 1
    KENTUCKY gained 1
    W VIRGINIA gained 1

    OHIO lost 3 (utica, marc. shale) where NSLP has ops.
    TOTAL TEXAS lost 2 where NSLP has ops.

    In the area where NSLP operates services are still in decline, rigs are being dropped and stacked and have yet to even flatten out. Fact. Fact. not opinion fact.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Lies, here's the headline from cnbc "Oil prices cooled on Friday as data from oilfield services firm Baker Hughes showed the decline in its oil rig count entered an eighth month. " "Energy firms pulled three rigs from U.S. oil fields this week, the smallest drop in five weeks, data showed on Friday,"

    As well, I wouldn't celebrate any increase on net in natural gas drilling considering the market is currently over supplied and ngl prices are down 60%+ in a year, any increase in drilling leads to more over supply further pushing NSLP upstream business deeper into the red.

    On net a 2 increase in rig count which were in NG out of a total of 859 total working rigs = a 0.002% increase. Not exactly a bullish sign and more important where? Where are rigs being gained and lost?

    I'll tell you because you time and again prove incapable of doing basic research which professional do:

    S LOUISIANA-INL WATER gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-LAND gained 2
    S LOUISIANA-OFFSHORE gained 1
    KENTUCKY gained 1
    W VIRGINIA gained 1

    OHIO lost 3 (utica, marc. shale) where NSLP has ops.
    TOTAL TEXAS lost 2 where NSLP has ops.

    Info from baker hughes, RESEARCH DONE in 2 mins, DUE DILIGENCE.

    SEE FACTS! In the area where NSLP operates services are still in decline, rigs are being stacked and have yet to even flatten out.

    SPECIFIC, SPECIFIC, FACTUAL, UNBIASED!

    NOW PLEASE TELL ME AGAIN HOW I LIED????
    WAKE UP SON, I'M TRYING TO HELP YOU!

    You don't like me, couldn't care less, I don't want to be friends, I want you to learn how to survive and invest.
    Now has your opinion changed being presented with the truth? Care to retract?

    Look everyone who reads this, you can't rely on opinion or general forecasts be management, you have to dig and understand to specifics, the details or else you are destined to loss all your money in the end. Anyone can make money in an up market but to not loss money in a down market or even make some, that is the goal.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 28, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    really? go to the gdp board june 16th and june 18th easy to find jimjones...where I posted it and copy and pasted it here. Hanging your hat on a FRACKLOG? At any given time there are approx 1000+ wells needed to be fracked in this country. It's not a new concept, nor the holy grail. You keep clinging to generalizations, it's to be expected from you because you have little to no knowledge of the industry and finance. AGAIN YOU HAVE NEVER ONCE POSTED ANY SPECIFIC DETAILED ANALYSIS refuting my detailed analysis derived from the info in the 10k and corp presentation. So your opinions, which they are, just opinions, with vast generalizations mean nothing. You are becoming a bore, like a loud mouth drunk who proclaims "I could of been a professional this or that had I only had the chance". But like the drunk the flaw wasn't that the world never gave you the chance, the flaw exists in you, you never having the skill or intelligence to compete in the real world to begin with.

    be specific. you'll learn something.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    after reading that ipso.facto does your throat burn, salty huh?

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    as well here's the point, you have to ask when the supply for oil field services greater outstripping demand what will happen? I suggest to you the same will happen here as will oil. Opec cut prices to force out the shale oil. Same in services, large companies with the scale and capital resources will cut prices to force out small less nibble players to equalize supply with demand so pricing power will return.

    So at what level of working rigs can NSLP survive long term? see your problem is you are short sighted, caring about 1q at a time, the intelligent investor looks further out, in 2016, the current strip pricing on oil, gas, ngl doesn't give a meaningful increase to the total rigs count therefore prices for services will continue to be challenged. With NSLP specifically, the production wwill continue to decline and hedges will roll off, accounts payable, factory payable, contingent payable will have to be paid. As well as a rise in interest rates which their credit line floats against, and PR payments, all below unit holders can get paid. dcf in 2016 will be lower then 2015, so the thought of a distribution in 2016 above .30cent is impossible. apply a 10x multiple and you get a $3 stock. In the mean time equipment ages and commands a slower fee... A vast majority of the book value with has and will continue to erode as customers demand lower rates and /or leave through cuts in ca ex or go BK.

    Their upstream business is unprofitable currently and with declining production, natural declines, each q a well isn't drilled the fixed cost per unit rises, and as the operator drills and NSLP doesn't opt in NSLP looses that drilling location. And becuase to the conventional nature of the play and a slow ramp to peak production when they are able to drill it will take several q to reverse the decline in overall production.

    Now can they survive, I think so but they will have to cut distribution and raise capital through 2 means, expensive convert. PR or untis

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    I direct you to my post where i clearly recommended pva twice. BTW DO you in which basins NG rigs rose, I do, and whether it was drilling or a completion rig? The theme for NG is in the east coast, Utica, Marcellus, where as NSLP primary service asset base is located in the mid contin. and Texas.......just a little color for you.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 4:07 AM Flag

    Wow, I really took the wind out of your sails huh punk? I verified 2 post recommending PVA around it 52 low, June 16th and June 19th on GDP's board.....Is that egg in your eye? As hard as you try to discredit me and try to shift the conversation away from NSLP broken business model, it won't work, truth is truth, fact fact. night son

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 4:03 AM Flag

    and before you get excited go and read the gdp board threads, "out of the 3" refers to the question asked of me about comparing GDP, SD, HK.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 4:00 AM Flag

    oh and look yet again I said buy and GDP board june 16th
    ""jimjones62 • Jun 16, 2015 11:29 AM Remove

    """...as well I would add pwe and pva to the list. If I were a holder of gdp I'd sell it and buy PWE and/ , or PVA....."""

    Unlike you son I post facts not fairy tales....You crack me up.... looks like its about to break below $4 again, hurts huh? stick to the facts and you'll stop losing your money. If you want a recommendation just ask. I'd be happy to help you.

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 27, 2015 3:54 AM Flag

    no idiot not on PVA board, I posted it on the GDP board where I was asked for opinions of what to buy. FACT and FACT......With the amount of position do you think I post on every board, I general post when misimformation happens, like here......NEXT.
    """jimjones62 • Jun 19, 2015 12:56 AM Remove

    They are all in bad shape and I wouldn't touch the common until a restructuring event. Especially with other e&p's that will survive trading at vast discounts to reserves and production. Out of the 3 I think SD will survive the longest but again I wouldn't buy the common. I think gdp will go BK and do a debt for equity deal, hk and sd will most likely reverse split and recap diluting the existing share base. I have some SDRXP, SD PR's but bought them pennies from the all-time low yielding 32% then, so seeing how they are up 8 pts since, I couldn't say follow my lead though I still think there is some reasonable upside left and it's a small position compared to the whole. As far as common shares I'd look at PVA. (I own it as well, a small position)"""

    There you go son, GDP board. NEXT.

    So how about you posting some research? Like call the yards that nslp owns and ask about utilization of their small fleet. I have, I encourage you to do so.....oh let me guess you can't seem to find the phone number

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 26, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Lone star will start the push and others who would be underwater below $8 will buy up shares to average down and cover any loss. volume should pick up and price up to $8

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 26, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Seeing how you keep calling me back here are more facts for you to chew on son, first the rig count declined again today, meaning less demand for services and another fact about the costly convertible PR issued because they couldn't access the bond market. "Another difference is that preferred dividends are paid from the company's after-tax profits, while bond interest is paid before taxes. This factor makes it more expensive for the issuing company to issue and pay dividends on preferred stocks."

    Yet another FACT. But by all means leggie, bet the farm on this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 26, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Seeing how you keep calling me back here are more facts for you to chew on son, first the rig count declined again today, meaning less demand for services and another fact about the costly convertible PR issued because they couldn't access the bond market. "Another difference is that preferred dividends are paid from the company's after-tax profits, while bond interest is paid before taxes. This factor makes it more expensive for the issuing company to issue and pay dividends on preferred stocks."

    Yet another FACT. But by all means leggie, bet the farm on this one.

  • Reply to

    Looks like $3.00 p/s

    by asburyparkrentals Jun 26, 2015 10:58 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 26, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    I think what will happen is a reverse split 1-20 then a secondary to recap. sucks for those who bought above $2 but in this range could provide a reasonable return. It would be for the best, long tern survival and all

  • Reply to

    For Blue

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:19 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 26, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Care to post some numbers kid and attempt to refute, rebuke and rebuttal...guess not huh? You stick to what you know best rhetoric and losing money and I will stick to what I do best, investing, making money.

    Like i said before fact are facts. I've look at your old post so that fits your bill.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    over a 150 million dollars in stock traded today. 36 million shares, that kind of volume and dollar amount general means it's more then just a boiler room scan, my take and experience tells me a bid has been make, now does that mean it'll happen, I don't know but in the end it's positive for share holders and for the sector that stock prices it the oil patch are so low that it's cheaper to acquire companies then drill for oil

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    not brutish pet

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    bp capital is Boone Pickens if I recall not BP pet. uk

  • Reply to

    BP summitted a buy out offer

    by jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:21 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Jun 25, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    it's on thestreet, benzinga, just google bp buyout of pva

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