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jimjones62 74 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
  • Reply to

    after hours dump

    by jorgejvelez 10 hours ago
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 10 hours ago Flag

    I watched the NY close it closed at 1.39....That's screwed up that it's marked after hours to the 4pm close....legally it should be closed at 1.39. that was the price of the closing bell trades

  • Reply to

    Reality check.

    by jimjones62 13 hours ago
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 12 hours ago Flag

    My target which is based on a 70$ oil in 2015 and $78-82$ oil in 2016 is between 4-6$ a share. so a 300-400% appreciation.

  • Reply to

    Reality check.

    by jimjones62 13 hours ago
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 12 hours ago Flag

    Inclusion: The company is well positioned to ride this out and actually take advantage of depressed land prices, they could add to their portfolio at a very low cost and lock in some lower service cost and transportation agreements as well.

  • Reply to

    Little Cash on Hand

    by hundleyrandy 14 hours ago
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 13 hours ago Flag

    250 million in revolver, hedges, lower cap ex. a concern but not a huge one unless oil stays below $50 for 2 years in that case 90% of oil in North America will be BK, USA will go into a depression.....don't see that happening. See other post on global demand and depletion and cost curve of each incremental barrel up to 93 million a day. The greater threat is to deep water drilling and production.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 13 hours ago Flag

    • Debt conversion and average cost
    After converting 21million in debt into approx. 16 million shares they will hold about 30 million share after transaction with a total investment of $73 million or an average share cost of $2.44 so any buyout would have to be above this for it to make sense for them to sell.

    Food for thought.

    If next year they produce 4400bopd and oil is $65 for all of 2015 the average realized price per barrel with hedges will be $75 and if they realize profit above $60 a barrel they will generate 20.1 million in profit or .25 cent a share based on 80 million shares out. Pretty solid outlook in a worst case oil price of $55 a barrel for 2015 plus they will hbp additional acreage and add reserves to use for borrowing base, no debt maturing until 2019 and now after conversion long term debt is only approx. 160 million. By 2016 oil should be bouncing back. Only the usa has been able to grow production and now the shale rigs are being laid down, Shale oil well produce much of their production in 2 years, steep declines and Russia won't be drilling and therefore this so-called glut of 1 million barrels a day will turn into a deficit...not to mention global depletion runs about 7 million barrels a day annually which means 7 million barrels a day must be brought to production to stay flat at the 93 million a day in demand which will be 96 million a day in demand in 2016..... You be the judge.

    We have the liquidity, solvency, and asset base to more then survive and grow when the turn comes.

    The Bakken works between $50-70 per barrel, we come in around high 50's low 60's for mid cycle cost and that is well below most basin.

    Please comment intelligently with some facts or you will be blocked. It's okay to disagree but back it up please. Less

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Dec 16, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Oil at 47$ BBEP at 5.39$ My call is they will touch that before rising to $75 in 2015 oil and BBEP cutting distribution to .10 a month and ending 2015 at 11$

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 15, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    They are covering their backs from law suits if they cut distribution. Stating clearly the language "at least" is based on these assumptions, so if 1 or all do not happen they are not liable.

  • Reply to

    Preferreds are so cheap

    by bluhorseshuluvsnfi Dec 10, 2014 10:58 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 11, 2014 1:47 AM Flag

    But in bk they will restructure, cancel common like LPR or Gmxr to name a few...companies are rarely broken apart and sold in peices, the bond and banks push for restructure where they get the equity, the executive keep their jobs and the stock is cancelled

  • Reply to

    GDP RSI is 32. 52% Hedged at $96 through 2015

    by smither1970 Dec 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 10, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Good for you. Wow 3 k that's a lot of money...lol... to ignore the facts is silly much like trying to create some personal relationship to an insider, as if that give you credibility, were your previous girlfriends from END, GMXR, ATP, Enron... You are right its risk reward...but cheap can get a lot cheaper, and until oil bottoms you are just guessing and hoping... what a punk.

  • Reply to

    GDP RSI is 32. 52% Hedged at $96 through 2015

    by smither1970 Dec 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 10, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    There are say merits to what you say, my comments were more to point out the ignorance of Smither1970. plus there is the b factor in the TMS to cope with...which means more capital to keep production flat...I think a sale will take time the major and VC that have capital will be selective knowing that a lot of land is coming up for sale as the leveraged E&P's look to remain solvent. Perhaps a sale of all NG properties would be better.

  • Reply to

    GDP RSI is 32. 52% Hedged at $96 through 2015

    by smither1970 Dec 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 10, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    You could say more, that's only half it's oil production is hedged, the other half is unprofitable at sub $60 a barrel and therefore if oil stays low, any new production it cashlfow negative. Debt still needs to be serviced and each new well cost 11million to drill....selling the Eagleford will help but who will buy? Especially when the Eagleford is getting close to uneconomic at this oil price....what price do you think a buyer will pay at the bottom of the cycle.....not a lot.. Plus selling Eaglefoord means lossing 2200 barrels a day of production and cashflow.... Need you say more? Where to begin....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Dec 9, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I wouldn't worry they are incredibly well hedged and have a lot of liquidity. By q2 2015 NA oil production will flatten and begin decline as will some other national oil companies abroad. This company will thrive and I coould see them going on an asset buying spree in 2015. The presentation says it all, hedges stable low decline, not alot of capital to keep production flat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 9, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    And there is the debt covenants which we will be in violation of by the end of q2 15

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 9, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    the hedges cover only 55% of oil production, it's not enough to ensure solvency, that's the reality and why the debt is trading at .57cents. It's hard to say what will happen. The credit line has a re determination is a few months which if cut could seriously harm the companies ability to generate cashflow....the oil price ang ng price will dictate all....its a waiting game I think we will stay flat or marginally down with tas loss selling until oil climbs back to 70$

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    current outlook and thought

    by jimjones62 Dec 5, 2014 2:15 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 6, 2014 2:20 AM Flag

    With 80% of reserves developed it doesn't take much to keep production flat, they can suspend all growth projects, lower cap ex spending drastically until oil recovers, hedges will cover us for 2 years and no major debt due until 2020, bonds are trading at .91-.92 cents on the dollar, no alarm there, of coarse should oil stay below $80 for beyond 2017 then we might have a no problem but we can choose to focus on Natural Gas which we have a lot of reserve of to develop at a low cost..... it's going to be a rocky ride but you make money when you buy and at 10$ a share and the hedges and lots of liquidity I see the risk reward favors the upside 12 months out.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Dec 5, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    just an update

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Dec 5, 2014 2:15 AM Flag

    with over 2 billion in liquidity, they are extremely well positioned to pick up assets that are extremely cheap that can be accretive at these NG prices and oil, hedge them out and when the market price stabilizes for oil price freecash flow will grow rapidly. They can acquire to maintain distribution level. Many shale companies will have to sell off legacy mature properties to maintain leasehold in their growth plays.

    liquidity and solvency are paragon here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A little help oil men

    by jimjones62 Dec 3, 2014 2:44 AM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 3, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Thank you for your opinion and sighting some concerns vs. bashing

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    thank god for hedging

    by jimjones62 Nov 27, 2014 12:02 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Dec 3, 2014 2:49 AM Flag

    you are both right. It would depend on if they locked in the drilling contractor at a fixed cost and other associated materials...but for an MLp the hedges do their job to provide visible cashflow to fund ops and distributions. Should price pop in oil and NG they drill more

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Dec 3, 2014 2:44 AM Flag

    Regrettably I am completely out of GDP now and booked approx 900$ in profits for the year I was trading it, prior to the collapse it was much greater as all of ours was.....Now I am waiting on the side lines....The trouble
    I foresee is the debt covenants issue of 1:1 current assets to liabilities and 4x trailing 12 month ebitda to total debt.... I can't see how they will generate 130 million in ebitda each q in this environment, and even with the 60 million form assets sales the current ratio is about .6-.7 times....Asset sales would be the fix but whose buying here and at what price....any thoughts from the gang? Logical please...Any one know what kind of cap ex is needed to keep production flat?....What a drag to see the TMS brought down by Opec....For those who answer let also consider at which point can their operations be self funding and what amount of capital to get there and price deck.

    My call here is hold if you are in and wait if you are not until we can answer these questions

    Much appreciated

    Sentiment: Hold

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