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Southwestern Energy Company Message Board

jimjones62 39 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 10 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2012
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  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 2 hours 10 minutes ago Flag

    then don't buy, the shares will rise without you, i don't have time or desire to educate you on assets values.

  • Reply to

    Value of APPROACH SHARES

    by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 27, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    Finra is the easiest plus you can see the recent trades....AREX debt has been heavily bought up this month.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 27, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    rev means nothing without looking at the margin. Hi crush has better margins or positive margins where emes had a negative margin last q

  • Reply to

    Value of APPROACH SHARES

    by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 27, 2016 11:06 AM Flag

    through your trading platform most have bonds quotes. or call the fixed income desk of your broker

  • Reply to

    Value of APPROACH SHARES

    by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 27, 2016 1:38 AM Flag

    Money flow is buying thus the price increase, the up volume is heavy, sorry but your comment isn't true. You'd have to see sustained selling pressure and gaps down. As well inst. funds have increased their positions. The debt ie the bonds have been pricing up from a low of 20 cents on the dollar to the current 55 cents on the dollar.
    some facts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Value of APPROACH SHARES

    by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 26, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    Permian Basin players are outperforming look at BBG, BCEI, LGCY, PDC....all weighted production in Permian Basin. THe low cost operator wins here. So next looking at the comparison of debt, reserves, acreage HBP, drilling inventory, AREX is undervaled relative to not only it's NAV but also to it's peers. 3 things can happen. 1) Arex is taken over 2) share price appreciates 100-200% to be in line with peers 3) peer share price falls 50-60% to be in line with Arex evaluation.....my best guess considering strip pricing and other macro factors that possibility 1 and 2 will happen

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Value of APPROACH SHARES

    by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 22, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    i agree i begun to average up and expand my position.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Apr 21, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    debt per share $12, even at 6$ per proved reserve per share =$24 -12 = 12$ per share with no value for water treatment infrastructure, 1 billion barrels in possible reserves and large block acreage in the lowest cost area in USA,
    going forward the lowest cost operator will win. Approach cash cost per boe is apporx 10$ a barrel plus EUR per well are increasing 30% which means more production and more reserves per well. including interest servicing cost net cost per beo is below 18$ a barrel.in a 50-60$ oil price to 5x ebitda or 12-18$ a share or get bought out for their assets in the Permian basin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Apr 19, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    Everyone on cnbc is stating oil will be in 50$ by year end. at $50 current IRR on our wells generate +20% irr
    in 2017 oil in the low 60$ will generate IRR in the high 20% low 30% ....

    What are our pdp and possible reserves worth in that environment? considering most acreage is already hbp'd and 4 boes per shares in proved and over 10 boes of possible reserves in the lowest cost basin

    easily 10-15$ a share in a stable 50-60$ oil price

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 13, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    lots of room, cap ex of 20 million for year and strip has improved, they will run cash flow positive and reduce debt...they said if they spent 80 million (flexible cap ex plan) production would grow, so to keep it flat and ensure positive cash flow and compliance into 2018 will the future strip is achievable. The forward strip increase pv 10 which already covers all debts so a reduction in the secured borrowing base will be min. plus there are the possibilies of asset sales, JV, mid stream monitizing and a 2rd lien to take out binds at a discount to par lowering interest servicing cost......its toough out there in the e&p sector but we are extremely well positioned to survive and thrive without a dilution and neg. change in the capital struture

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 13, 2016 3:33 PM Flag

    there will be a lot of consolidation in the low cost basins, demand for Permian will be greater then before because unlike other areas you get make mid double digits returns in a $50-60 oil price. We should price up to where BBG trades or get bought out. Management might try to go private....in any event our debt trades well above peers at .60 on the dollar plus huge block acreage, mid stream assets to monetize, etc

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Apr 13, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    Don't worry about it they are the best positioned to survive and thrive. lowest cost operator always wins. They will either grow in a 50-60$ oil price to 5x ebitda or 10-15$ a share or get bought for their assets in the Permian basin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com by jimjones62 Apr 4, 2016 11:07 AM Flag

    If they want to become a super Permian E&P they should use their stock to take out other low cost producers who have lower leverage ratios. AREX would be a great fit and strength the companies balance sheet and reserve debt ratios and cost per boe

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2016 9:48 PM Flag

    1.20 to $6 is 500% and still well below pv10 of proved reserves in a $60-70 oil price. That's the point. risk reward is favorable. Run some numbers dont take my word son. Most all e&p's are priced for BK but once that fear is resolved they will appreciate, those that survive to the value of the underlining cashflows the business has.

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Here's a thought. Find the lowest cost producers in the best basins with the ability to grow production and cover maint cap internally in a 50-60$ oil price. Outside of MLPS I've looked at AREX, large reserves pv10 covers are debts, a 10$ increase in oil price increases value per share $10 (on a NAV value) large blocky acreage in Permian. Current IRR on wells is in the mid teens, debt just came off neg watch and bonds have double in price into the high 40's low 50s, management has a high % ownership, cash cost per boe is below $12....if oil settles in a 50-60 $ range until 2018-19 companies like this will be able to grow and maintain their capture structure. My horizon is 2018 where either 1 of 2 things is possible 1) oil is below $40 all the small oil companies and mlps are restructured wiping out everyone....or....my belief, oil rebounds to the marginal cost to satisfy demand of 96-97 million bpd, between 60-70$ a barrel and some e&p's and mlps will be restructured but those that don't will be up 500-1000% from here. my bet is on this. So I have some common and some bonds in EVEP, MEMP, CEQP, VNR, CRC, AREX,

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 28, 2016 10:14 AM Flag

    Bonds are trading at .47-50 today.

    Pretty good compared to most other producers who are at 10-30 cent

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 9:28 PM Flag

    I don't buy the PR shares because of tax consequence of the suspended dividend because the payment still has to be claimed as income even though you don't get it and the head aches that causes filing taxes....rather take the bonds

  • jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    Here's a thought. Find the lowest cost producers in the best basins with the ability to grow production and cover maint cap internally in a 50-60$ oil price. Outside of MLPS I've looked at AREX, large reserves pv10 covers are debts, a 10$ increase in oil price increases value per share $10 (on a NAV value) large blocky acreage in Permian. Current IRR on wells is in the mid teens, debt just came off neg watch and bonds have double in price into the high 30's low 40's, management has a high % ownership, cash cost per boe is below $12....if oil settles in a 50-60 $ range until 2018-19 companies like this will be able to grow and maintain their capture structure. My horizon is 2018 where either 1 of 2 things is possible 1) oil is below $40 all the small oil companies and mlps are restructured wiping out everyone....or....my belief, oil rebounds to the marginal cost to satisfy demand of 96-97 million bpd, between 60-70$ a barrel and some e&p's and mlps will be restructured but those that don't will be up 500-1000% from here. my bet is on this. So I have some common and some bonds in EVEP, MEMP, CEQP, VNR, CRC, AREX, LGCY(bonds only)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    They might be able to do a second lien and buyback bonds...but bonds prices on their debt are up 80% to around 40-45 cent on the dollar

  • Reply to

    Evaluation

    by zoomoccu Mar 22, 2016 2:45 PM
    jimjones62@rocketmail.com jimjones62 Mar 27, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    $50 price environment

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