NO one will partner with a company who is approaching insolvency. Period.
don't invest until you can understand the 3 financial stmts, balance sheet, cashflow, income, take a online coarse or look into a home study crash coarse otherwise you are gambling and guessing with your money
not all boe's are the same the oil gets 108 but the NG barrels get around $54 a barrels (6mcfe=1boe, 1 mcfe in uk is about $9) with 60 of production NG that makes a huge difference. ANd then there is depletion and terminal declines at Bacchus
Here is the thing, TMS is the last great oil producing Shale in USA...The ext wave going forward as was with conventional is massive industry consolidation, the major buying out the mids and juniors raising multiples across the board. The exploration side of the USA is about all done. Shale oil production nationally will peak in the next few years, Holding acreage is king. Our TMS alone holds 500-1000 million barrels EURs. back out cost to develop and that's at $100 a barrels 50-75 billion in profits, then Bakken, Eagle Ford, net of 150 billion over lifetime, we could get to a 30 billion enterprise value in 10 years, ($80 share). Especially with global peak production and higher oil prices. Opec is barely holding production at a plateau, global consumption has now outpaced production by 600000 barrels a day. Add in middle east wars... What type of profits do you see
how many barrels of oil in the that 12 million insurance settlement?
You can't possibly be so misguided to base your thesis and survival of a company on this... TIme me where the growth and stability of production and the capital to execute on that will come from? The company must sell assets to survive or it's insolvent in 6 months. Fact. Look at the debt interest schedule and coming show downs in assets. Fact
But was during a total market collapse, the indexs are making new all time highs but END is hitting all-time lows, company specific....anyway fishy story so you told this contractor to put 1.6 million into 1 stock!!! Why was he working if he had 10's of millions because an advisor would never put everything in 1 stock right.....misleading pumper, again those who wish to invest don't run blindly into any stock do some logical D&D. IF you own it now hold but don't throw money at something just because your ego is bruised
It's all in the q1 transcript....you have to really do some Due diligence and not go cheers leading and misleading novice investors into a fray...There is possible reward here but it comes at an extremely high risk as well....we know we have 2 large payments due on our Monetary Production facility, one coming in January of 2015 and April -- and the second in April of 2015, totaling $104 million...
Consider in your numbers: The events below are why there is worry over debt servicing toward the end of 2014- into 2015 and a low stock price
"Mechanical failure in Scott resulted in an emergency shutdown of the platform, and following full investigation of the incident and completion of the remedial action by the Scott operator, production from Rochelle resumed on April 26. Looking forward, in the short term, we expect Rochelle production will be provided from the East Rochelle E-2 well. Good reservoir management practice to maximize reserve really dictates that the 2 Rochelle wells should be produced in proportion to their ultimate recovery. And thus, the East Rochelle well requires to catch up with the 2 months of production from the W-1 well last year. It should be noted that while W-1's completely shut-in...Looking further ahead in 2014, the third quarter is typically the period for maintenance shutdowns in the North Sea.There is a 16-day shutdown at the Forties....we entered into a third forward sale on approximately 200,000 barrels for the second half of '14, (meaning we don't get the rev or cashflow from).....pipeline System that is planned in August, and that will impact production from both Rochelle and Bacchus. Alba, will be shut in july for a period for maintience and safety testing....We continue to be disappointed with the high costs at Alba, caused by dealing with the several issues there, and we are working with the operator to address ways to improve.
the growth came form debt, not internal generation. They can't take on anymore debt, cost of capital is too high and with depletion at Bachus and declining production profile, they have to make some hard choices, scale down the company. btw the cost saving on interst helps but it's still 30 million + a q in servicing cost
I watch for a reason to see if I can buy in and make some money, I still haven't seen any improvement. People point to their growth rate but ignore the debt that came with it and that more then half the free cash flow services just interest payments...I would love for them to turn around but I am still waiting. Yes they have in the latest with more debt more forward sales of production which is debt but doesn't show up under liabilities, more capitalizing of interest, lower volumes at Scott when we believed we'd have 100mm a day. Issuing more converts...At these levels it's an option, either $2-$4 up or 0. They need to sale North american assets lower debt and cash bleed and develop North sea asap, oil focus.
One sign of concern is the Capitalizing of interest payments. When you capitalize interest, you skip the interest payments. However, you still owe the money and you'll have to pay eventually. Your lender adds the interest charges to your loan balance, so you owe more and more as you capitalize. Capitalization is the process of adding interest charges to your existing loan balance....A company that is making lots of cashflow wouldn't do this and eventually the leader say no. then forced sales of assets.
Interest servicing cost has sky rocketed, free cashflow is now almost 0, back then the price reflected a forecast of 20000-27000 boe/d, current price reflects failed acquisition, failed drilling program, failed proof of concept in heath oil shale, in Alabama, iin the north sea heavy oil block.... lower through put volumes to scott platform, lower production and well performance at Alba.....The reason for the fall is a number of failures over a 2 year period.....The main 2 problems currently are 1) NO cashflow after interest servicing and maint cap. and well deplete so cashflow from current assets will decline 2) no cash to grow production, Rubee, r block great concept but they need at least 200 million to begin production if and if oil is proven to be there.
SO how do they get back up? Not sure...where is the cash going to come from for growth, not sure...what is the stock worth....could be 0 if reorganization in BK or $2 in a buyout....
NO position sold last year and have been watching, waiting...
they are using shorter laterals and less frac stages, so our design should ensure Ip's of a 1000 boe + very attractive IRR's when LLS crude at $110 a barrel, 95% oil
Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (GDP) today announced the completion of its Nunnery 12-1H-1 (93.3% WI) well in Amite County, Mississippi. The well has achieved a peak 24-hour average production rate to date of approximately 815 barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE") per day, comprised of 785 barrels of oil and 185 Mcf of gas on a 17/64 inch choke from an approximate 6,000 foot lateral. The well, which is located near the Pike County line along the northeastern boundary of the Company's acreage block, landed in the Company's lower target and was completed with 22 frac stages.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We beat that and we have oil and some NGL vs. dry gas, more valuable, good for all operators in play!!!
1,548 barrels of oil equivalent per day, HK
The Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1 (92% WI) well in Wilkinson County, Mississippi, achieved a 24-hour average initial production rate of 1,208 barrels of oil per day and 1.1 million cubic feet per day of 1,551 BTU natural gas on a 19/64 inch choke. Based on gas composition analysis and assuming full ethane recovery, the Company estimates that the well would produce an additional 212 barrels of NGLs per day for a total 24-hour average initial production rate of 1,548 barrels of oil equivalent per day
THis is awesome 400 million in drilling cap at 8% retain all 300k arces, bought port land to sell oil to refinerys at seaborn prices, 2 million barrels of storage, Floyd has a great vision and these strategic investments will be worth 5-10 fold in 2-3 years
Sentiment: Strong Buy
1,548 Boe/d IP Rate on Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1
HOUSTON, TEXAS, June 9, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Halcón Resources Corporation (NYSE: HK) ("Halcón" or the "Company") today provided an operational update related to its 314,000 net acre position in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale ("TMS").
The Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1 (92% WI) well in Wilkinson County, Mississippi, achieved a 24-hour average initial production rate of 1,208 barrels of oil per day and 1.1 million cubic feet per day of 1,551 BTU natural gas on a 19/64 inch choke. Based on gas composition analysis and assuming full ethane recovery, the Company estimates that the well would produce an additional 212 barrels of NGLs per day for a total 24-hour average initial production rate of 1,548 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The well has a 7,060' effective lateral and was completed with 24 frac stages, 21 of which were effectively pumped and 3 of which were partially pumped (less proppant placed than designed). Halcón drilled this well in 39 days (spud to TD).
The Company has drilled the Black Stone 4H-2 (87% WI) well in Wilkinson County, Mississippi, in 28 days (spud to TD) with a 5,400' lateral. Completion operations are expected to commence this month.
Halcón recently spudded the Fassman 9H-1 (84% WI), located in Wilkinson County, Mississippi, with a second rig and is planning a 6,030' lateral for this well.
The Company has also spudded the SD Smith 1H (62% WI), located in Wilkinson County, Mississippi, and is planning a 7,660' lateral for this well.
Halcón plans to spud 10 to 12 operated wells in the TMS running an average of two rigs in 2014. The Company also expects to participate in 15 to 20 non-operated TMS wells in 2014.
In addition, Halcón announced the signing of a definitive agreement with credit funds and accounts managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, "Apollo"), which will invest up to $400 million in the Company's wholly owned subsidiary, HK TMS, LLC ("HK TMS"). Upon closing, HK TMS will hold all of Halcón's acreage in Mississippi and Louisiana that is prospective for the TMS formation. The Company holds 100% of the common shares of HK TMS and is the sole manager of HK TMS. Apollo will contribute $150 million in cash consideration for 150,000 of HK TMS preferred shares, and under certain circumstances, may acquire up to an additional 250,000 preferred shares of HK TMS on the same terms. Holders of the HK TMS preferred shares will receive quarterly cash dividends of 8% per annum.
True but like LPR, GMXR ATP liquidity in king, with the pending shut down on the fourties platform for maint and alba in July for 15 days the problem isn't asset base it's servicing debt and not having any money to drill. It's high risk/ reward play. If they have to sell off assets they will not get fair value for them.
GREAT MLP STRONG DISTRIBUTION COVERAGE and p/r ratio of 50years. going to $30 with a yield compression to 6.66%
Sentiment: Strong Buy