i disagree, management is doing a great job finding oil, lowing cost, and not taking an expensive deal like HK. The deal will come but it will be a good one. Management can't control global oil price. Not their job
Sentiment: Strong Buy
They are extremely well hedged in 2015 across the board.
Net debt will decrease with 53 million in bonds taken out by restricted cash and over 200 million available on revolver. No near tern maturities.
Assets are worth 3-4 billion. Averaging in at this point. And at this price point a takeover could happen but I expect a JV much like HK's which would catapult us into the 20s from here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
AS well, never believe a presentation or CEO's optimism, look at the numbers. You could of went to the North Sea off shore production stat website to see the water handling issues, declines at baccuss, etc. research.
Your problem is the GROUP THINK mentality, you only would consider ideas that reenforced your thesis. All the evidence pointed to this outcome yet though the months leading up you ignored any challenge to your position. It's important to realize that you were wrong, not so the naysayers can gloat but importantly so you don't ever make that mistake again in your modeling of an investment. Such as EBITDA being thought of as positive cashflow which it is not, or that production requires no investment to maintain or that is goes into terminal decline.
Now there are some A-holes on both sides longs and naysayers, try not to get emotional envolved in it, LEARN TO INVEST WISELY, not group think, take losses when you are wrong before BK. All the best Jim
If it even open sell everything to market. Common will be cancelled, it has no value. You might get lucky.
Sorry to hear about your losses, I've had a few in my lifetime as well. My first investment 20 years ago went BK, hard lesson but well learned. Listen honestly if you want to be in oil look at MLP's there production tends to be hedged 3-5 years out plus now that blood is in the street you can buy 10-15% yields backed by stable production and hedging. 3 years from oil NG will have rebound and in themean time you collect a nice income that's 90% tax sheltered. Many small c -corp will struggle and sell assets which MLPS will get on the cheap. say you take 100k pick 5 mlps at an average 12% yield thats 12k a year or 1k a month in your pocket. Then appreciation upside.....do some research, hears a short list LINE or LNCO, arp, qre, bbep, memp, vnr....if you go that route look at hedging, r/p ratio, debt maturities schedule.
Book the loss for the future gains. Main man38, sorry if i was hard on you but I was trying to stop you from throwing away your life savings.....In any event you all will recover...we only learn from these hardships, apply it to become a more successful investor.
Otherwise I like the growth is advertising migrating away from TV to small screen through any kind of recession. FUEL is my top pick there.
Don't you feel foolish now. We all tried to save you some money and you #$%$ it away. One of the naysayers who was right.
I warned you guys, here it is as I said it would be, management made sure they had jobs and the shares are now cancelled. From release "All of the Company's existing equity securities, including its shares of common stock and preferred stock, will be cancelled, without receiving any distribution."
That's it, story is over. Banks get it all, Management serve it to them on a platter to keep their jobs and get a piece of the new equity. Sincerely I'm sorry, its awful when this happens...I lost a bit of money on END last year. Learn from this.
Anyways the stock won't open until news is out then it's too late, you get whatever deal they agreed to, no vote on it. hand is dealt now.
and Bankrupt means several things chpt 11, chpt 7, chpt 13 etc. Company can survive but not with it's current ownership, meaning stock cancelled, management gets incentives to stay on which they have begun to do..
The answer is in your stmt, BEFORE TAXES (30 million), INTEREST (100 million) and DEBT PAYMENTS (Over 160 million) then maintenance, cost to participate in new well to keep production from declining, etc etc by next year they will be insolvent by over 100 million...Do you understand what ebitda is? It isn't positive cashflow friend
Don't think so. Company clearly stated it is seeking to file chapter 11. The hold up is most likely first lien senior debt want chapter 7 to get cash back sooner and not be stuck with equtiy in a declining company meaning take ownership and sell all the assets. Then pay out in seniority. Meaning common is last in line. Considering the vast mismanagement of these assets courts may agree. Sorry guys there is magic savior riding in at the eleventh hour. Cold calculating busy.
The fact that they have a restructuring officer position isa tell that things are not going back to before, capital structure wise which means a percentage of the equity has to be given up to the debt holders the question is how much?
It's a dice toss, good luck those still holding. If the company survives i hope management is replaced
Man you people need some serious financial education, it's in the title SECURED which is senior to unsecured, preferred, monetary production payments, common stock, which are not backed by assets etc etc