Splits are purely for psychological reasons (ie look how attractive this is at 50 vs 100) or need for additional capital raising needs (I can raise my cap faster now with more buyers). Neither really matches what DECK is looking at, so what would be the rationale to split? For MA, it made sense on the psychological factor as a stock at 75 is likely to be bought vs 750. DECK did not split at 120 three years ago or have any inclination to do so...why do it now?
The other thing about splits - before massive share buybacks, they used to look attractive as a company was growing strong. Now companies do the split, buyback shares, and reissue it as options to directors and C personnel, hence no real gain on shareholder value, but some very wealthy higher-up leaders...and an easier to meet/beat EPS (hence why today revs tell the real story of the company's health).
I am interested in NKE this week. Doubled my money on lululemon last week with a simple strangle. Playing NKE with more time on the contracts but figuring a move to 82 or 72. I like UA as well, but find the PE a bit scary.
Been loading up on tsla as well ever since last ER and now am in the black today.
Read it last night as I was in Philly for Army-Navy over the weekend. Relatively shallow look and no added thought that they will likely destroy the forecast for this Q.
Agreed with you. Now into my third week of selling 85 covered calls. So while most have been speculating it moving higher only to watch it keep sliding back, I am sitting content with about 3.50 a share in premiums in my pocket. So on a dividend yield, I am now over 3% after taxes. I should be able to either rebuy on the cheap or let these expire to resell again next week. All about making money.
I am sure they are - but you ask what shorts generally see and they generally look at trends in the market as a whole.
I will just say it once again - this will be held in the 85 range until next Friday, not to exceed 87.30 or under 83. There is a large position out there with about 1.4 million shares under control that unless closed earlier will simply pin the stock right here. Buying back my 85 cvd calls at the end of the day for .05 or .10 (sold 1.67) and then reselling next week's 85 for about 1.60-1.70
The shorts actually see weak retail results and figure DECK will follow with a similar outcome. LULU and ULTA both defined a women's sector with extremely weak guidance. They see everything in this sector tanking post earnings. Why should they think differently about DECK in a rational thought pattern? This is why you continue to have the interest remain high awaiting a fall.
How is that working out for you? LOL, yeah, let me go ahead and follow your "advice."
I love people who post things and call me "kid" with nothing to back up their comments. This is going to park itself right at the 84-85 mark like it did last week - normal 2.7% pop, then slide back and retract. Oh wait, just did it in the first 10 minutes of open. Imagine that.
So I can resell another week's worth of 85 covered calls! DECK has now given me a "dividend" of 2.60 in two weeks and it is sitting right where I bought. This thing is going to be pinned between 84 and 85 until exp on the 21st. Then we shall see what happens.
You forgot how they are starting at the back end to determine quality control issues, and that PR, product quality, and lack of product are all issues.
Clearly you did not listen to the conference call. But then that would be DD on a stock, not just putting out buy guidance with no reasoning.
Did anyone listen to it? Amazing-ly bad. PR, produce quality, and product shortages due to quality issues. Stocking the wrong season items. Low 4th Q traffic. The best quote though: "we are focusing on quality control AT THE BACK END." You cannot make this up.
Stocktwits is reporting it as a bull put spread - selling the 68.50 puts, buy the 64s in case of a major dip for a small credit. Should be an interesting report in the morning.
I would agree...guidance is what matters. I expect between .40 and .43 in earnings (analysts guiding down to .41) and then some very poor guidance to follow. If they lower forecasts, look out.
With LULU, I will believe it when I see it - I have watched it receive its beatings and immediately rebound, usually in the same week if not same day. And if you read my position, the more it is knocked down, the more I benefit. As for the stock, unless the entire business model or the entire market falls apart, this stock will not stay down long.
And if you wonder why I hold a strangle, the analysts have reduced expectations so far down that I could also see a surprise report - not as likely, but could be a sandbagging effort from the analysts.
I can see this being a bad Q, but as you stated, it becomes a value buyer's dream, especially if under 60. The new CEO being named 2 days before the ER is meant to have the opposite reaction that Ms. Day had when she announced during the last CC (not sure who thought that was a good idea). Chip's departure is definitely a house-cleaning gesture meant to instill confidence and gain back defectors from the brand. My guess is that this Q had more defectors than expected, thus a drop in sales that can hurt any momo stock. I think you see a very "blah" report, probably in the .40 range with possibly is redirect down on guidance - margins have also likely been crunched with competition. 10-15% haircut is likely, followed by an immediate rebound as this stock NEVER stays down long. I hold a strangle, so nothing long-term in this, but I would be a buyer at under 60 as long as the report is not a complete disaster.
That I have no idea on, but I thought I remembered CS putting out an advisory just before last earnings with the same price tag and that started a slide back to the 50s after multiple price target increases and a ride to the high 60s. Then earnings came out and it took off.
It also makes me wonder if CS or an affiliate did not put on the massive options trade last month that needs the stock to remain under 87.30 (its breaking point), and would prefer it to close in the 85 range by 21 Dec. If so, this looks like the perfect setup to slow momentum.
Like I said, not the super bull many are here, but I see the company moving up this Q. Did not see too many uggs yesterday in NYC, even in & around Macys, but the weather was only cold and not like it is here in NY today. I love this stock for its covered call premiums - weeklies return 2-3% near the money, so for me it is a weekly free mortgage payment with little risk.
Wow, down $2 at the open...clearly something that the market took seriously. Time to buy more shares and calls ;-)
It will not come down if as some are covering more are shorting. Also depends how much leverage the shorts have as far as holding call options positions to mitigate losses and how much they loss they can sustain. Also, from a rational perspective, as the price rises, the short interest will increase with a view of over-value.
While most on this board know I am not a super bull, I find the Christian Buss of CS' underperform analysis opposite of everything else (on street insider). He says declines of visits to UGG web properties, yet UGGS were in the top 5 of black Friday searches, and he really provides nothing more to consider other than a $50 price tag. I guess come next earnings he will either look like a buffoon or a genius. I bet on the former.