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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

jimmach123 224 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 36 minutes ago Member since: Aug 29, 2006
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  • jimmach123 jimmach123 1 hour 36 minutes ago Flag

    Welcom to the group...sold'em for $1 this week after letting my 78s from last week (sold 2.15) expire worthless. Time to sell deep in the money for the coming ER.

  • Reply to

    90 by end of week

    by uggs8788 Mar 31, 2014 2:07 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Apr 15, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    I notice he has gone away...probably showering to wash the egg off his face.

    All I know is I kept 2.10 off it last week by selling the 78s for 11 Apr expiration. Sold the 77.50s for a buck on Friday for this week...if it goes over, no problem - if not, then I resell deep in the money for earnings. If I am out though, FB and PG may be my plays next week for buying and selling ITM calls for earnings (Deep for FB). Be very happy if this did buy me out of my shares come Friday.

    Made some great money on KO this morning...calls went for .40 and out at 1.30.

  • Reply to

    90 by end of week

    by uggs8788 Mar 31, 2014 2:07 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Apr 5, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    He posts either drunk or without taking his meds...White Plains, NY store had no one in it last weekend. Majority of the store is now on sale as well outside their few summer items. So glad I exited this and went to ULTA, then LULU, and this week Z. This thing has moved a whopping 7% since I sold while the others have returned me over 30% just using covered calls trades for earnings.

    My only trade on this for earnings would be to buy here and sell the 73.50 25 April call for at least $8.50-9.00 - small gain, but excellent margin of safety, and decent gain for 800 shares with 2.00-2.50/share. But I would not initiate this until the week of ER...let the volatility build. Strong risk/reward after last Q as worst case is another dip of 10%, best case is it takes off...either way, taking a $1600-2000 gain in a week is fine with me.

  • Reply to

    Up 2% on a "down" day

    by emanymemanym Mar 11, 2014 4:51 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 11, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    Yeah, there are a few of us. Bought yesterday just below 88. Collared this today though for earnings with 95 calls (sold) and 87.50 puts (bought). I learned with DECK 2 weeks ago to not be too confident and hedge some. I do however expect them to "pop" a bit back towards 100 after Thursday.

  • This apparently is supposed to be a DECK message board with actual thoughts and solid investment ideas. Instead it is simply a crazy person's blog who has a serial killer obsession with this company's management buying back stock. Just look at today's topics...he is just writing to himself.

    Want a winner for the week...exit DECK and move to ULTA. More benefit and you can revisit DECK after Thursday's ULTA ER to buy DECK at 75-77. This is dead money until the next ER unless you sell covered calls on the shares.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 3, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    This is advertising 101 and strategic communication. Right now, Deck would not exist if not for UGG. Therefore, they need to branch out. Pick your target audience and hit them...not talking Maserati in the SuperBowl (worst ad based on target audience), but simply looking at who they want to buy their products. I buy only nike athletic shoes due to not knowing the benefits of others...show me a reason to go Hoka. Make me want the brand. I have no idea what its benefits are right now.

    As far as this Q, I won the estimize for Q4....bet 4.01 and 730 mil; betting that Q1 will be break even. I think we repeat last April - sideways trading These sandbagging SOBs are as unscrupulous as Wall Street analysts.

  • Reply to

    Stock is being so undervalued

    by uggs8788 Mar 3, 2014 9:17 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 3, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Back around Christmas, you said you were going away. I knew you wouldn't, but god I wish you would now...you are worse than shorts. If this is over 85 by June you will be lucky.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 3, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    I have a feeling you are full of it...go back and read your pre-er posts. I used to think you possibly had some sort of sense about you - now I just know you should be in the looney bin. You were calling 97, and other absurd numbers before they even announced! Give it a rest and stop for a while. You have a serial killer like obsession with this. You were too bullish and need to realize it. If this thing sees even 90 by June I will eat crow and admit it. But it won't - we are now going to trade siideways into an April ER that will keep this in the 73-85 range, and I will hedge this much better into the next ER.

    BTW, Buybacks flat out stink - they simply buy the shares and reissue them to management as options time and time again. It has an EPS effect, but really does not help shareholders when you sandbag with junk guidance.

    While this buyback works for SAM with an extremely low float, it makes me queasy with DECK. I am going to simply keep hedging this with covered calls, the only thing that kept me from screaming last week, and wait to get back to even or near even. Deck should pay out a dividend if they have extra cash; not superficially pad the EPS and a horrible management's pockets with buyback.

  • Reply to

    increase buyback

    by uggs8788 Mar 1, 2014 10:06 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 3, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    So basically everything I buy long term - all consumer staples and utilities.

    I will just keep selling weekly covered calls for about a buck until this thing recovers.

  • Reply to

    Deck being manipulated

    by uggs8788 Mar 2, 2014 9:14 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 2, 2014 10:47 PM Flag

    Being manipulated? Where are you seeing this? you simply copied and pasted the CC. The last Q was great, but guidance was junk. This has turned into an old school Apple style of sandbagging guidance - appears the market is a bit tired of it.

    The only three reasons I am still holding are simple: call options have a high premium and this is not going to 0, so I can still pull .30-.70/week in premiums; secondly because insiders have not been dumping, thus the share price has not reached a valid value for senior management; lastly, this has a history of quickly rebounding or simply trading sideways after a negative ER reaction.

    But when we get to the next Q's report late next month, I will collar this thing as I should have done last week - estimate they break even in a "surprise."

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Mar 2, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    Simply put, the market has investors and it has traders. Traders play the Qs...investors play on a LT outlook of the company''s success and growth. IMO, what you saw Friday was traders exiting the door and investors swooping in seeing a 12-16% discount on fair value. More than likely mgmt was also buying back some shares to sweeten the next EPS as well. Traders don't care about the year outlook - they want the here and now financials.

    I would be much more concerned as an investor if I saw insider transactions when this was at 85-90, because Akerlof (Yellen's husband) has already shown that C-series executives do not look out for the shareholder but for their own value - if you think they care about the shareholder over share price we can talk about a fair price for a bridge in SF that I would love to sell you. This is also the reason though that I dislike buybacks over dividends - they buy back shares only to reissue them as stock options to executives. It is a way to temporarily increase shareholder value but really increases executive incentives.

    My technique is slow an steady - the weekly options on this stock have an amazing premium and with volatility will stay in play. I can return 1-2% per week just playing the contracts as covered calls and have been for about 12 weeks now. If this dips again to 70, I will look to buy more to DCA down, but my best assumption is that they sandbagged the report and this will hang out between 70-85 over the next few months. The chart after each ER like this, which is 3 of the last 4, shows an immediate drop and then immediate rebound back to the original high. While history does not always repeat, it definitely often rhymes.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by goleryan Feb 27, 2014 10:23 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 28, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    I would say yes, they low-balled. I am trying to figure out how they came to such low EPS and Revs with Jan and Feb in the Q1 #s, ie two of the coldests months. I know they said they are not a "cold weather company" but a "cooler weather company," but I would expect sales in Q1 to be much higher than the gudiance. However, I am a buyer if this sinks to 70 or under; otherwise I will just continue driving on with selling weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly calls for a few months to regain some losses.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 27, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    So, am I correct that Q4 did end 31 Dec? Then how, in the name of zeus' corn-hole with Jan and Feb cold weather, are they even thinking the next Q will be a loss?

  • Reply to

    AH price puts this at PE of 17.5

    by i_call_b_s Feb 27, 2014 5:01 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 27, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Under 70 and I am a buyer.

    Funny thing - we were just here at 72 a month ago and yet no one seems to remember that...I can sell bi-weekly covered calls and make back my money as I have time on my side.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    As I said before, you need to learn how to research charts for past ERs...this did this same thing last time and the time before...you also need to learn how to keep calm, carry on

  • Reply to

    Predict Friday's Opening & Closing Price

    by axpkocop Feb 26, 2014 12:05 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    Just out of curiousity, as I always look to learn something new with trading everyday, can you explain why your way is safer than say buying shares and selling the $88 covered call?

  • Reply to

    Predict Friday's Opening & Closing Price

    by axpkocop Feb 26, 2014 12:05 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    To each one's own...I have shares with cvd calls sold and have been doing calls since last ER. I would predict this moves more than just $3, but if it doesn't I won't be crying.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    tomorrow after close

  • Reply to

    Predict Friday's Opening & Closing Price

    by axpkocop Feb 26, 2014 12:05 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    I think it is interesting how you make no mention of the call premium, only puts - There is no real % difference in the put/call cost difference...84 calls at about 4.60 (OTM by .20) and 84 puts at about 4.80 (ITM by .20).

  • Reply to

    Lowering Guidance Tomorrow

    by spongebarb_squaredance Feb 26, 2014 10:41 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 26, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    What did the price action say last Q? I love tro!!s

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