Bought insurance as I headed to work (I work odd hours in Asia, so my morning time is really about 1-2pm on the market. I wish I had just cashed everything out and played a strangle - it would have paid off my house. Instead I am basically down a few percent, but nothing compared to what it could have been!
Now I have to reflect over the weekend to determine my next course of action with this stock - need to see if this support at 66 will hold. This looks similar to 81 last Q, so I will probably sell calls about 10% out of the money on a weekly/bi-weekly basis. I expect mgmt will kick in the share repurchase at these prices.
The COO news at a minimum was leaked when it went from 86 to 78 on no news other than a small downgrade in the middle of the day after it was already falling. Again, no good news ever comes out at midnight as their COO press release did. No faith in management at all at this point. Ridiculous conference call as well - they literally failed to keep shelves stocked.
Thankfully I picked up puts yesterday before close - had a "gut feeling" this would not be pretty. Figured it was insurance in case of a disaster. That COO announcement was a bad omen of things to come. But I really was surprised at this report overall - mgmt just needs to be gone, and I really mean gone - they stink. Execution was awful.
Read the conference call - anytime an ER release lacks top/bottom lines in the first few sentences and I have to search for it we know we have a problem. Martinez was very clear that mgmt did not execute well this Q at all. They literally had solid strong sales but somehow failed to push out enough inventory for the basic boots as well as lacked hedging on FX.
Glad I picked up puts yesterday - the way they replaced the COO was quite ominous as I repeat: no company or person releases infromation at nearly midnight when it is good news.
While I agree the midnight announcement was suspicious, you know he announced he was retiring in April? Not a shocker, but expecting solid numbers with guidance to flop.
I love your logic - if we went by this, then explain last Q and last year at this time. No warnings and yet poor guidance led to sell offs over 10% each time. While those were buying opportunities, it is hard for LT investors to swallow. Unless you conceive the big boys sold 80s for today on Monday morning and then sold off their shares, I call BS. Additionally, the 2-3x spike in volume on Tuesday with the midnight PR for a new COO just smells awful - nobody releases good news at midnight just like your boss does not call you at 2am to tell you how great of a job you are doing.
I find it eerie that today Sam Poser said he is bullish on DECK, but then went on to cut his estimates by just over 1% to 4.77. Looking at this, I would expect DECK to come in around 4.85-5.00. I am waiting for 75 or under to buy more calls prior to the ER; if it does not get there, then I will simply wait for a post ER drop to initiate a new position. It all comes down to guidance.
This stock can only be played through buying on dips and selling at any possible chance you have as it is the epitome of a rollercoaster. LT investors have been the bagholders as this has moved nowhere over the last year, even if you bought on dips.
Analysts are paid to provide an opinion to clients that fits the desired market narrative, not find the information to form a narrative. Think of them as intel analysts prior to the Iraq War - they pick and choose info to fit the desired outcome and then ignore or discredit that which does not.
Volume tells the story - look at the last 6 months. You only see the level we saw Tuesday twice - at ERs. So where is the story behind the sudden spike? It did not drop after the announcement if a fund or funds had news prior to the actual PR, which seems very likely as they dumped.
The earnings release date along with a downgrade and then the very late COO announcement were the only pieces of news on Tuesday.
On a positive note, we have not seen insiders dumping - last Q we did see it in the mid-90s. If it does go to 75, I will add some more calls; otherwise I will prep some puts as the ER is about to come off as insurance. Also, Zappos continues to have UGGS as 50% of its best selling women's shoes and shoe products and has consistently had its products in the 50-70% range since Oct.
There is a drastic difference between unfounded volatility and unscrupulous behavior. No way it is a coincidence that the stock tanks as they finally release a statement for the ER and announce a new COO way after hours without actually announcing the previous guy's retirement (they noted it in April with no date). Sorry, but anytime we have a midnight press release it is not for good news. One can easily assess that someone very likely leaked it early thus the high volume sell off - it more than doubled in volume and was down 5% before a downgrade even came into play. BTW, the ER date was not listed on their website; Nasdaq had it for February, Estimize for Mar, and only Yahoo Finance had the right date. I had to email IR to confirm prior to their PR. I foresee this not being the best of reports based on the shady pre-moves - this stinks of LULU's June report.
Options expiration on this one has little to do with it unless you figure big boys sold 80s for this Friday. $7 or 20% in a week comes about when they have news or ERs, not when nothing comes out. Don't fool yourself into thinking "this just happens." Horse pucky. This also smells of their ER at this time last year when the stock shed $13 after the ER. TIme to buy puts for protection.
I was teaching at a Big 10 school during that time and what I saw was a combination of three issues that led me to short the company through puts over that time.
1. The unusually warm fall/winter of 2011-2012; when snow did come, it melted immediately or ended as rain and thus the temps kept UGGS from their main utility of warmth in dryer climates or frozen ice/snow.
2. Sheepskin prices took off and the company lacked any hedging capabilities to counter this.
3. Style change in women's fashion - riding boot took off and I literally went from seeing half the girls in class wear UGGS to 1-2 (180 student lecture hall with 65% girls) wearing them. But the riding boot and the hunter rain boots were all over the place due to #1.
All these combined caught management with a multitude of issues - shrinking margins from costs as well as the ballooned inventory that then had to be sold by retailers at a discount; additionally, orders for the next year depend on the previous year and thus UGGS saw cuts on the 2012-2013 orders. All of this led to a collapse from near the 120s to the low 30s in the fall of 2013.
What I see now worries me a bit, but not too much. I think they will come in with earnings near 4.75-5.00/share, but guidance is the thing - bottom line is they suck at giving guidance and sandbag it every Q. I am concerned that we had a $7+ drop with news that appeared to come out after hours which makes me wonder who was alerted to the changes ahead of time. COO retirement was announced in April with no date, and the change here with no real announcement until after the fact is a bit worriesome as well.
Lastly, my final concern is today's trading - down on a massive up DOW day...not uncommon with deck, but somewhat disconcerting. So, with calls sold for 30 Jan last week on my shares, some calls bought for Mar, I am likely going to further hedge with either long-term calls next week or some puts just before earnings in case we do see a collapse.
More will be coming with the ER next week. However, a few Qs on this:
1. We knew the COO was retiring per April's announcement - why is the general counsel, a lawyer, being made the COO? Is this good?
2. Why are they announcing an ER only 9 days ahead of the event? This is normally something companies forecast months out and announce 20-45 days prior.
Just because they have yet to guide down does not mean the ER will not smell like old fish on a summer day - look at last Q and last Feb - same story. I have a feeling it will be a great Q with not so great guidance.
I think you have a selloff with the official ER announcement - only Yahoo Finance actually had it correct - Nasdaq had Feb, stocktwits in Mar. Their own website did not have it until now. People are scared as this is the first ER in Jan as they normally do a Feb call and they likely will be cautious.
I am regretting not having sold when this finally rebounded to 99 after the last ER and not continuing to sell covered calls; have little faith left in this management as they are beginning to act like it is the 2011-2012 again when they sunk to 36 with ridiculous shenanigans.
Just to clarify...the ride down in early Nov came AFTER the last ER. Action today is alarming, as is the PR drop 9 days before ER - most companies are proud to announce it a month or so out; this is also the first year they are moving to a JAN ER as it has been Feb in prior years to better assess the late winter/spring Q. Technically this has further to drop - no candlestick, high volume...will add at 77 or lower (and if it never gets there I will not add...not that complicated).
Probably a smart move - Sold the 98s for .75, so no complaints on my end. Also bought some Mar 20 95s for 2.60 when the stock was about neutral. Expect this to now rebound a bit...not likely back to 95, but will probably hang out in the 87-92 range for the next couple weeks.
Colton at Investor Relations shot me a note back confirming Yahoo Finance is correct. I thought I remembered DECK changing things last year as they used to do a late Feb and then late Apr report to better forecast the last of winter and spring.
Allow me to self-correct - ER date seems to have a lot of confusion right now. Yahoo is saying a couple weeks (29 Jan), Nasdaq says 26 Feb, and Estimize says 5 Mar while the DECK investors relations website says Jack. So basically options for the week of 30 Jan are pricing in an ER that likely does not exist. Awesome...
BLUF: Deck will likely tap-dance this 82-92 range in the coming couple weeks mimicking last year's action. ER should be solid and guidance likely reaffirmed to push it back into the 90s.
The good, the bad, and the ugly...
Good - sales appear to have been extremely solid through online channel checks. Weather has been favorable and items were hot for Christmas. My estimate is about $5 a share for this ER based on ~25% growth and the fact that last year they blew through the estimate with ease...only to lower guidance which they then firmly continued to beat each Q...thus leading us to the bad...
Bad - Guidance continues to trouble, specifically the sand-bagging BS that management spews each Q. They only affirm or reduce guidance. They then proceed to destroy it the next Q and thus the only winners have been call writers for the past year or those who have played the crazy ERs with options. Losers have been holders who have not used the dips to increase their positions and then failed to sell when the stock moved into the 90s or bought in the 90s. My biggest problem with this company, even though I enjoy playing it, has been the lack of inter-Q communication between management and shareholders.
Ugly - recent action on the stock with no explanation or true triggering issue. High volume with steep declines likely means another day or two of drops before a rebound, so watch out as the knife looks to be falling a bit more before hitting support. I would say anything under 83 and pulling the trigger is an excellent move. Looking at 20 Feb 90 strike calls.
Wild Cards: Impact of the west coast ports - how much profit will this take off the bottom line? Have they been hit by shipping costs? Share buybacks in the works? Dividend? I would love to see either of those two items come into play, but again I assume Martinez will do what he usually does - affirm guidance and see the stock sink and look flabbergasted on Mad Money the next night.
I would concur. I sold some new $98 strike (my purchase price) 23 Jan calls today and bought some mid-Feb 95s. The price dropped more as a result of retail being beat up - started with finish-line and nike if you look at the dates of it falling under mid-upper 90s. It is showing some signs of support today as the stock has basically been in 3-4 weeks of free-fall from 99.50, just slow and painful free-fall. I think you see the price do nothing this week, but then rebound come earnings time. I am just hoping we do not have another sandbagging on guidance.
Thinking this will go to 105+ after the ER when it sits under 90 now is possible if the stock recovers above 95 before the report, but from here or lower very unlikely. I am in at $98 before the last ER - the day after I bought DECK received two BS downgrades and suddenly was at 90; then the CEO threw the ER with sub-par guidance which we know they will beat. My only saving grace is that I sell weekly or biweekly calls and have made back about $6.50 since buying, so I am not in extreme pain.
At this point, I will take a gamble on some Feb calls if this goes under 85 in the next couple weeks. It would be almost certain to rebound some prior to or after the ER; wild card factor though remains the mgmt - after heavily following this stock the last few years, they seem to either be clueless or in on the collusion to move this stock every quarter. Watching right now for insider sales...
BTW, interesting how DECK was hit due to Finish Line and Footlocker; nke was not too bad as the previous two show shoes are selling, but buyers are waiting for discounts and thus the margin pressure. This has actually been my norm for running shoes - I always wait until Finish Line puts shoes on clearance and buy a 2 for 1 - not going to pay $150 when I can pay $60-80 for the previous year's leftover model and buy 3-4 pairs at a time for a year's worth of inventory. DECK is not going to see this - sales are too hot right now and they finally have inventory under control after the burn of 2011 when they were just destroyed. Plus weather is staying cold - seeing $5/share for this next ER, but as usual, guidance remains the issue.
Thanks - I am sitting on 600 shares - my last 12 weeks have had covered calls all expire worthless, with the average about .50-.60/week in profits. Some weeks as high as 1.30, some as low as .15.
I do however get a little tired of the management sandbagging guidance and that is my fear this Q; however, I see them having about $5 EPS and about 850 mil in revs. I will keep selling my CCs - likely look at the 98 or 99 this week for a small bit of change. Every little bit reduces my long-term mortgage.