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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

jimmach123 72 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 9:50 AM Member since: Aug 29, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Scratching my head

    by bremerton720 Feb 25, 2014 10:42 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    Amazing how you look at it over one week and not the previous 4 months...ride down pre last earnings from 67 to 57, then post ER run to 70, then further to 75, then further to 90, then drop back to 73 on huge volume (only assume a fund sold based on 3-4x volume), then last week back to 87, and now it is being "pummeled" to 84. Wow...you have an interesting view of this stock's trading pattern.

    But obviously it must be that the shorts know something...I wish we could all be so astute.

  • Reply to

    Chance of a lifetime runs out tomorrow close

    by fertinheimer Feb 25, 2014 3:04 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    It's Thursday after close...not tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    It is not the earnings....

    by advisorydoc Feb 25, 2014 11:20 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Guessing you run and develop a lot of small and big businesses alike with that genius mentality...some inside the box thinking there.

    I guess my thoughts on this would be that you have to have the chicken before the egg...nke moved towards other products once the shoes caught on...ua the opposite. I don't expect Hoka to be there and thus the model is likely evolving. They need to make Hoka a brand name that is better known before they make other products or it is simply dead inventory...supply with no demand equals a lot of supply.

  • Reply to

    It is not the earnings....

    by advisorydoc Feb 25, 2014 11:20 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    It depends if they want to be a shoe and clothing company. It also depends if the shirts are sponsor only shirts put on another company's design and if there is demand for both Hoka socks and shirts. You make valid points, but what is the actual Hoka business model?

  • Reply to

    It is not the earnings....

    by advisorydoc Feb 25, 2014 11:20 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    What is wrong with the HOKA website? Is it too simplistic? Not sure what you are expecting as I buy shoes from finishline as Nike fits me and gives me now knee issues, but the HOKA website looks to be simple and functioning.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I sold the 100 weekly for .80...I see it ending around 96-98.50 range.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 6:22 AM Flag

    Your name matches your price estimate...a 16% move is quite realistic.

  • Reply to

    Too nervous

    by goleryan Feb 25, 2014 12:26 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 25, 2014 6:20 AM Flag

    Having been to several ugg stores, I have no nervousness. Just been selling covered calls on shares since December and thus far have brought in over $10/share in income and only had the shares taken once ($85 strike has been key), which I then rebought lower. I sold the 100s for this week as even though I know this will beat hard, I think we see about 96-98 at week's end and then a move higher into March. And if it goes above 100, I won't be crying ;-)

    Been trading this for several year's, so I know the pattern and movement pre/post ER - this Q will on the low side see 4.50, high side 5.50 IMO, but will be nowhere near 3.80.

  • Reply to

    I can see right thru em

    by goleryan Feb 24, 2014 3:37 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    Why would you go with comments on a yahoo message board or stocktwits to decide your investments? out of curiousity, did this bite you because you bought at 115 several years ago or because you poorly traded it over the last year?

  • Reply to

    I can see right thru em

    by goleryan Feb 24, 2014 3:37 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    I sell weeklies and they are way OTM and I have some 22 March calls at that price to counter if it does explode.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    Have you ever looked at the DECK chart? It does this EVERY TIME prior to earnings. It went from 67 to 57 prior to the last ER, so be happy we are at least in the 80s for now. Did you do any analysis on this or just flop down ~$70K?

    I sold my weekly 100s today for .80 each. If this falls further, I will buy back and sell the 95s.

  • Reply to

    So exited...the tro!!s and Shorts have arrived!

    by jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 11:05 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 6:44 PM Flag

    Can I rename you "Debbie-Downer-Dallas?" J/K of course, but man, you really want your fast buck on this, don't you? God, give me patience, but give it to me now...

  • Reply to

    I can see right thru em

    by goleryan Feb 24, 2014 3:37 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Sell cvd calls on the pop, buy back on the dip...or buy puts on the pop, sell on the dip...or buy calls on the dip and sell the next morning...too many options plays.

  • My ignore button is ready to fire this week...so come on shorts and tro!!s...give me your best arguments. What I expect:
    1. Retail sales sucked everywhere
    2. They had to cut prices to make sales
    3. No one wears them anymore or shops there
    4. They are ugly and useless footwear
    5. Mgmt has no idea what they are doing.

    Z, Reality, and Bavaris: what have I missed? I cannot wait to see some of these great arguments this week. I may not be able to sleep until the weekend!

  • Reply to

    Lowered Guidance coming Thursday

    by timberrr23 Feb 24, 2014 6:14 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Yes, they are here! I am so excited. I was actually walking my dogs this morning in my UGG loafers with the 20 degree weather wondering when the tr0!!s and ID10ts would emerge with their "short thesis." You have made me very happy and are the first to experience the ignore button on this board in a long time!

  • Reply to

    Retail stores openings mostly in Asia

    by uggtrader Feb 23, 2014 11:03 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 24, 2014 5:50 AM Flag

    Having sold covered calls at the 85 strike for months now and collected the premium over 90% of the time without buying back the contracts, I will say there is definitely manipulation on this stock. I have watched this things regular pattern - Monday it tends to pop a couple bucks to increase the premium; then it falls back and gets pinned in the 83-84 range. It usually re-pops during the week but then eventually comes back down.

    I am not complaining about this - my contracts have brought in about .90-1.50 per week in premiums and thus I have returned ~15-20%, but the stock definitely has some 'bot programming in place. This week though should be different with earnings. I am a call buyer on any weakness and a call seller on any strength.

  • Reply to

    Overvalued!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by gowiththewave Feb 19, 2014 10:37 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 23, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    Actually being a service member under Tricare, I know exactly what they do, so please pay up on your bet. And based on its previous post ER reactions, this should now pull to 80 in the next month as it always seems to dip post report and then rebound higher. Report was decent, but stock is at a nose bleed level, and thus only a small sell off. If we have no crash/market sell off, this will regain its position.

  • jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 22, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    You should actually be happy history is not 100% repeating - last ER this thing sunk HARD the entire 2 weeks before the report, from about 67 to 57. We already saw this sell off, as Z mentioned, likely a fund dumping based on volume and selling pattern.

    My relatively conservative estimate for the ER: 5.25-5.50 EPS, revs at an amazing level, and solid guidance showing that retail stores are already placing massive pre-orders for next year. I want to hear words like "had trouble keeping inventory stocked to meet demand due to extreme cold." This guidance piece is key. I see the stock moving to about 110 as Spring hits if they also provide growth in the non-UGG brand to show other growth potential. But as I said in another post, I am likely to sell the 100 covered call for 28 Feb on Thursday as I see it struggling to break into the triple digits immediately after the ER.

  • Reply to

    Going thru a lot of stops

    by goleryan Feb 21, 2014 3:27 PM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 22, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    This is why trading the shares has not been great unless you catch the momentum. I have been in and out of call options on the dips 5 times since it sunk those 14 points and then rebounded. But the real money has been the covered calls (we talk on stocktwits) - these have been paying my mortgage twice over each month since December. 85 has been the magic number. This week though, I will take a chance and sell the weekly 95 or 100 on Thursday when IV maxes.

  • Reply to

    Overvalued!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by gowiththewave Feb 19, 2014 10:37 AM
    jimmach123 jimmach123 Feb 19, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    76 straddle play on this...expect it either 70 or 80 after tomorrow's report. This has had a tremendous run the past couple months and now received several upgrades. As I find analysts to normally be a day late, this likely takes a sizeable dip tomorrow.

DECK
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