easy to see how this would end up.
My guess...upgrades and PT increased move this in the next couple weeks to 90+, then a could downgrades - getting ahead of itself - and it falls back. So Monday I will sell the 86 weekly, but the March 90 calls and hope for a likely pop.
Taper moves this last week obviously have left people with two main options: growth or value stocks with interest rates staying down.
Would have replied yesterday, but reconstructive jaw surgery hampered me for a bit. Nothing like myoplex through a straw for Christmas!
Both were absolutely packed yesterday...to the degree that security had to force people to stand outside in the 25 degree weather and light snow to await exiting shoppers to avoid a fire hazard. Very little marked down, even at an outlet, and the registers never stopped ringing. Prices were all at the norm of any UGG store. I smell about 5.25-5.50/share on this report.
Clearly you did not listen to the conference call. But then that would be DD on a stock, not just putting out buy guidance with no reasoning.
You forgot how they are starting at the back end to determine quality control issues, and that PR, product quality, and lack of product are all issues.
Read it last night as I was in Philly for Army-Navy over the weekend. Relatively shallow look and no added thought that they will likely destroy the forecast for this Q.
Now Corinna Freedman is defending the stock from Wedbush. She is now a VP at the company, but used to be the Wedbush analyst for clothing retail and loves KORS. Says upside is still present and stock will outperform.
Translation: My replacement here at Wedbush is an idiot and just made my phone ring non-stop with his/her stupidity in the client note yesterday.
Best guess here is that as with every company, they will beat EPS by a penny or two, but will be light on the revenue side. Guessing outlook is slight lowered and the stock trims back to the 75 range. It has gotten a bit ahead of itself lately. This holiday season has been rough and required massive discounts to even get consumers into the door. Be an interesting report and guidance. IMO - it sees 75 before 85, but alas, I have been wrong before! Disclaimer - 80 straddle with options for Feb exp.
How has he disrespected the military? Just a side question as I must have missed that one. He basically is a cocky 25 year old who felt he could cut his addiction to the yahoo message boards and I figured he would be back within a week or two...it was as sure of a thing as a LULU short, which btw was a "let's chop 5 years off your mortgage" put option play. He has read some Buffett and Graham books and has a knack to identifying value plays and taking a chance on them. It is better than most his age. But then again, this is the same 25 year old who said no one makes money on options, even though I made 350% last year and so far in 13 days sit up 30% thanks to Z and BBBY. Z was a simple buy and sell covered calls play for last week while BBBY was an easy strangle play - would have made more if I held the BBBY puts, but I am not a pig.
You want a real play with DECK...buy shares here and sell the $86 strike Covered Call for about $2.50 for this week's expiration. Why would you not lock in 2.9% on the call in a week with very limited risk and be able to buy back in next week if your shares are taken, which if taken, would be a 3.7% pull in a week? They won't do a LULU and cut forecasts, but shorts may run it down to 82-83...and if they do, oh well, resell the 85 again next week for 1.50-2.00. This thing is a cash cow and if played right, will result in well over 150% for me in 2014 just with this simple strategy.
Did you even listen to the conference call? The guidance was cut quite severely and lacks any real SSS growth - basically now seeing 3% vs 4.5% expected.
It probably will turn into a good buying opportunity...at 70 or below. That is a decent accumulation point for a 14 PE stock, but not a 16.5+ PE stock.
BTW, If you wonder if I have done this strategy, I successfully played it for 5 solid weeks with 85 and 86 strike covered calls. The result was again of 1.68/share in stock price as well #$%$20 in covered call premiums, thus 8.25%. My shares were taken at 85 about 10 days ago, with no regrets from me. The stock now literally sits 1.96 above where I initially bought at 83.32. Remember, a gain is only a gain if it is cash in you account...otherwise it just sits in unrealized column and can turn on you at any moment as this has spun its wheels for two solid months.
Agree - if you are not buying shares and calls for March post earnings at this price, you are missing an opportunity! Holy cow! This is the buying opportunity of the month right here. If it sinks under 75 I am in for more. Keeping some dry powder on hand for more.
this is simple new year profit taking...locking cap gains in for 2014 vs 2013. Great entry position. If this sees 200 flat again I will be buying some LT calls.
Back around Christmas, you said you were going away. I knew you wouldn't, but god I wish you would now...you are worse than shorts. If this is over 85 by June you will be lucky.
This is advertising 101 and strategic communication. Right now, Deck would not exist if not for UGG. Therefore, they need to branch out. Pick your target audience and hit them...not talking Maserati in the SuperBowl (worst ad based on target audience), but simply looking at who they want to buy their products. I buy only nike athletic shoes due to not knowing the benefits of others...show me a reason to go Hoka. Make me want the brand. I have no idea what its benefits are right now.
As far as this Q, I won the estimize for Q4....bet 4.01 and 730 mil; betting that Q1 will be break even. I think we repeat last April - sideways trading These sandbagging SOBs are as unscrupulous as Wall Street analysts.
Basically, yes - it is people who did no chart checks to see what this has done prior to earnings in the past and bought at 85-87 expecting it to continue running, which it does not do normally. I used yesterday's weakness for more calls, and going to use today for the same if it falls.
BTW, did anyone spend the time to read M's conference call yesterday? Said strongest sales were cold weather apparel and accessories. I am amazed that the estimates are only 3.77 when this made over $3 two years ago when margins sucked, less stores, and a mild winter.
I have a feeling you are full of it...go back and read your pre-er posts. I used to think you possibly had some sort of sense about you - now I just know you should be in the looney bin. You were calling 97, and other absurd numbers before they even announced! Give it a rest and stop for a while. You have a serial killer like obsession with this. You were too bullish and need to realize it. If this thing sees even 90 by June I will eat crow and admit it. But it won't - we are now going to trade siideways into an April ER that will keep this in the 73-85 range, and I will hedge this much better into the next ER.
BTW, Buybacks flat out stink - they simply buy the shares and reissue them to management as options time and time again. It has an EPS effect, but really does not help shareholders when you sandbag with junk guidance.
While this buyback works for SAM with an extremely low float, it makes me queasy with DECK. I am going to simply keep hedging this with covered calls, the only thing that kept me from screaming last week, and wait to get back to even or near even. Deck should pay out a dividend if they have extra cash; not superficially pad the EPS and a horrible management's pockets with buyback.
And if you wonder why I hold a strangle, the analysts have reduced expectations so far down that I could also see a surprise report - not as likely, but could be a sandbagging effort from the analysts.
I would agree...guidance is what matters. I expect between .40 and .43 in earnings (analysts guiding down to .41) and then some very poor guidance to follow. If they lower forecasts, look out.
I can see this being a bad Q, but as you stated, it becomes a value buyer's dream, especially if under 60. The new CEO being named 2 days before the ER is meant to have the opposite reaction that Ms. Day had when she announced during the last CC (not sure who thought that was a good idea). Chip's departure is definitely a house-cleaning gesture meant to instill confidence and gain back defectors from the brand. My guess is that this Q had more defectors than expected, thus a drop in sales that can hurt any momo stock. I think you see a very "blah" report, probably in the .40 range with possibly is redirect down on guidance - margins have also likely been crunched with competition. 10-15% haircut is likely, followed by an immediate rebound as this stock NEVER stays down long. I hold a strangle, so nothing long-term in this, but I would be a buyer at under 60 as long as the report is not a complete disaster.