Steve, you pulled out too early at 42. TA is thrown out the window in an election month. This stock is going to test 57 on Friday, May 16 when voting results come out. If the NDA gets a simple majority with 200-220 seats (as expected), we should see 55 soon. If it defies expectations and gets 250+ seats, we're looking at 60+. On the other hand, poor results (less than 180 seats) will see us crash again.
I plan on unloading half in the upper 50s on or before May 16, and then ride the rest one way or the other. If it surges, great. If it drops, I'll buy more in the 30s. Either way, you can't go wrong with IBN.
If NDA comes to power with a decent majority (BJP is the major player along with other parties that make up the NDA) and creates the impression of a stable government, IBN should test $58 next month after the results around May 16 (voting ends May 7).
However, if a hung parliament signals a potential delay in formation of a new government, we're going to see a negative reaction in the markets on account of the uncertainty. In that scenario, IBN will probably take a few steps back.
Rajan has indicated that rates aren't going to be cut anytime soon since he wants to see how inflation data plays out after the monsoon. Here's my plan: I'm going to hold my position in IBN and HDB until the second half of May based on a favorable result for NDA (per polls) and then sell on any surge in the high 50s. Then I'll wait for an opportune moment to buy IBN back in late summer. In any case,history suggests that the Dow at 16,800 is headed for a correction in Q2 and Q3, and I'm going to set some dry powder aside when s**t hits the fan.
In the long run, IBN and HDB are proven investment juggernauts given India's growth projections over the next decade. An easy 3-bagger if you time the next buy right and have the patience to hold for 3-4 years. Good luck.
Bad news for MNTA but doesn't necessarily spell disaster. SC can still confirm lower court's ruling, and let MNTA launch in May. The key is to get FDA approval to validate their technology and reassure investors. Then they have the option to launch at risk or wait until next year. Sept 2015 isn't too far off for someone who can easily double or triple their investment in 18 months. Patience is key.....along with using this buying opportunity.
MNTA being walked down....a few thousand shares at a time. That can only mean one of two scenarios:
1. Leak of discussions = good news to follow soon on Copax and classic accumulation in progress, or
2. Dilution heading our way in the near future?
Jumped in today at $12.28 with a short term target of $19.
with all the potential headlines to follow this year (selumetinib in nsclc etc), we will be at $10+ by december.....not withstanding the warrant-related hiccups at $7. i'll take a 90% return in 6 months any day.
ps: if you're a global player, take your profits and invest in brazil (vale, itub, pbr, ugp and gfa) for 6 months. sell in aug/sept 2014 (before elections), and rake in another 75% ROI....and then thank me with a dom perignon blanc.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
announce that the FDA filing procedure went faster than anticipated, and that they are going to file in Sept or Oct. They're also going to announce a ROW partner for Provenge. Anyone who thinks the deal wasn't done before JPM was brought on board doesn't know how the system works. Gold's strategy to crush the shorts again by lulling them into a false sense of temporary security is brilliant. Then the focus will be on Neuvenge's progress, and what the Phase 2 plans are.
All in all....a PR to dig the second-to-last nails in the coffin of the short lobby. Only 10 days to go....
On January 7, 2009, you wrote:
>>I still think that IBN will see $30+ within 6 months<<
Good call, Salmon, on the $30 call. Just like you predicted, all the factors like profits, growth, inflation, and elections came into play to get us to $30.
Any thoughts on IBN's long term prospects?
good analysis, salmon.
i think we'll see 50 next year.
for now, i'll take 35 on april 28.
long and strong, baby.
Wow. Are you psychic, Salmon? On the money two days in a row? You wanna share something with us? What's your take for IBN - short and long term?
Good call on the close today, and over the last few weeks. You still think we're gonna see $40 in 2009?
Don't try to get it. Just enjoy the ride up starting Friday (after the House votes for it). Senate approval tonight is a given.
After earnings in a couple of weeks, we should be playing with the $30s.
I'm not worried at all. Using this opportunity to back up the truck and loading up. After the 10/13 earnings report, we should be heading higher again. In any case, I'll continue to buy on all dips. In April/May 2009, we will be back into the $40s.
100% gain in 6-9 months? Not bad at all.