Not sure I understand it other than a scheduling issue with Tom or Brian. I don't think its that big of a deal, unless it were to be on Friday. That would not be good.
I've talked to Brian on the phone and I know that he has personal goals in his position to keep the LRAD name in the press as much as he can. Not for nothing but being named Best at anything positive is usually a good thing. Would like to be seeing announcements with large $$$ but summer has traditionally been a bad time for this stock and this is proving to be the case once again in 14.
Hopefully some solid numbers with some positive news and a legitimate forecast will be enough to get this stock moving. I'm very very very tired/annoyed/impatient with this two dollar trading range.
My brokerage is showing an analyst predicting they will show a two cent per share profit for the third quarter. I would have guessed more than that and they could be sandbagging. But, if accurate, either they are not going to recognize the expected revenue of six million plus or they have a margin and/or some other issue.
The quarter ended June 30. You need to go back to look at previous announcements regarding shipments and revenue recognition. The four million border order was shipped in q3.
Regarding q4, much of their business doesn't get announced, as its federal spending that might be ones or twos replacements and contractual order fulfillment. I'm a little concerned that we won't be close to last year's q4 and I'm betting this share price limbo is based almost entirely on that. Like you've said, where's the adoption that one would have expected to happen by now? This is not a typical new technology but I think a lot of investors view it like a typical consumer's product. Seems like its either feast or famine, and every third year seems like it will fizzle. I don't see that being the case this time although the market does.
My guess would be on Wednesday the 6th. They must report by the 15th and since we've not seen an announcement its highly unlikely they report on the prior Wednesday, 7/30. They have most recently reported exclusively on Wednesdays and the 13th seems a bit late based on recent filings.
I was WRONG. One share was the opening trade, then two shares traded. Two separate transactions totally three shares. LRAD pretty far off the radar at this point.
Its their name in the press which stands for something, although I don't know who was their competition if they really had any. I don't understand the "recognition" for the 360 since they really haven't done that much with the product. Again, what does this mean? I suppose I should read a GSN article or press release.
The good thing is, they are making money. The bad thing is, they don't seem to know what to do with it.
I'd argue patience if this was 2011 but mine is well past gone. Seems like that's the nature of this technology, feast or famine, and investors in general like a little more predictability. I had thought that they were diversified enough, in their products and markets, to generate a more steady and increasing level of revenue. And that may be the case, but Brown and company are not presenting enough information to give the investment community the confidence to take the share price higher. No willingness to forecast, no willingness to detail the market and product potentials in order to give everyone the confidence that future revenue growth is available and attainable. Ponderous.
The company is expected to report revenue in excess of six million and profits in excess of three cents per share. At least, that's a reasonable guess. With that one time order of four million shipping in q3, and "normal" revenue in excess of two million per quarter, the six million almost seems like a lay up.
So, with six million in revenue and two or three cents per share in profit, the trailing four quarters should show $24 million in revenue and thirteen to fourteen cents per share in profits. Based on a conservative p/e of 20, that would equate to a share price of between $2.60 and $2.80. Yet we flounder around $2.00 per share....
Can anyone explain why we can't gain any traction?
I realize the fourth quarter of fiscal '13 was pretty impressive and may be hard to duplicate this year. BUT realistically, aren't the odds of a general uptrend greater than a precipitous drop in revenue, which the market seems to be forecasting? The short interest has remained relatively flat of over the past six months so hard to believe the expectation is a serious drop in profits and the resulting share price.
I would certainly appreciate any reasonable points. My feeling is Brown and company need to forecast based on a solid understanding of where there markets are going. I don't think it would cost a significant amount of money to put together market studies on their top five markets in order to lay out the next five years of growth potential. Seems like something companies do all the time, except (seemingly) LRAD.
All opinions welcome.
I don't disagree with what you are saying. My frustration with Tom is that he delayed innovating the product into the 360 or any other wider-usage product. I think he was counting on the holy grail of orders, the US Army larger purchase or the Kongsberg order or some other elephant size order. Forgot that week to week revenue is just as important if not more important.
Now we wait again to see if the 360 has a market. It should have wider opportunities but I could make the case for the directional products as well. How many strip mines are there? Fisheries? Airport? My guess is the product is too low on the priority list, which leads most people to look for ways to innovate the product to find a market where it would be HIGHER on the priority list. That hasn't happened yet and I'm not sure how much market intelligence LRAD has.
The cc in August should be interesting. I'm attributing a lot of this price action to the summer months malaise plus concern about the market in general. But I'm hopeful that if/when they get an eight digit order or when they have back to back to back solid quarters, the investor community will take notice. I'm happy that Brian Harvey is bringing in new investors but I'm more concerned about how many are leaving or reducing their stakes. This two dollar price range is perpetual, which bothers me considering they will soon have close to seventy cents per share in cash in the treasury. No faith in the future.
Its not a consumer product so its hard to use some of the typical lifecycle formulas. But you would think the adoption rate would have propelled this technology to a new revenue level by now. Very frustrating.
Whatever they know about the directional market remains a mystery. At this point, I'm guessing its spotty at best. Whatever they know about the 360 market seems pretty limited because they don't quantify it to their shareholders or potential investors. Brown's reign has run its course. Its well passed time to put up or hit the road.
I wish I could figure this share price out. They have a nice new investment this past quarter from Punch & Associates (157k shares) so I'm assuming we'll see some other new institutional investors. Yet here we stand...adrift at $2.00 per share. I have to think/hope that the company says or does something (prior to or during the August cc) to put a charge in the stock price. This is really starting to become tedious.
I don't know how much they have ready to go, but there is a certain amount of modularity to their design and you can see a breakdown between finished goods and work in progress ( I think that's how they state it) in their sec filings. If they have $5+ million in inventory (as they do according to their latest filing), they can almost assuredly ship $8 million in finished goods in a matter of weeks.
Their products can be made to order but also some of it is partially built or sitting on the shelf ready to be shipped. They can ship quite a few pieces in little to know time.
lol, that is fantasy and lets not be too greedy. I'd much rather see that revenue spread of over five to seven years. They could be a forty million dollar company and triple the stock price, plus not overburden their structure. Brown says they can handle fifty million a year in revenue for which I'm dubious. I seriously doubt they can handle that much revenue without falling on their face in the process. But I don't want to douse the fire so dream away...just spread it out over a longer period of time if you could.
Thanks for the information. It would be great to know how much revenue this will lead to but at least we're on the map. Have a happy 4th all. Just don't ever forget that freedom isn't free. I know its a cliché, but, as we see more and more via the interconnected world, it is so very true.