These will definitely support and exceed the guidance given based on last quarter results. What will hit the guidance off the park is B&G:I to be released in March. If it released in early March, it could influence this quarter.
He is the board member of CALL and a partner in Adam Street.
The strategic review is a strategy against short sellers and it works. Many firms do it without real intention to sell the company. I think MONI is all set to realize their vision independently.
Capital Markets Days will also not review anything more than what they have published in terms of numbers. What will be more interesting and help the stock is their articulation on how they are going to be profitable by 2016 and how they are going to achieve their 2018 users and ARPU target. Believe is not enough now as they have lost the trust of investors. They need to show concrete roadmap and initial numbers to back it up.
Well, by the time US market opens on Tuesday, we will know whether the investors like what they are saying or not. I think this event is a +- 20% stock movement event.
5,000 shares each vested over 4 years @current $5 value is really not much to give away. Mobile games developers are hot commodity these days. I would give them restricted shares than signing bonus anytime as incentives are more aligned with mine.
This is the latest scare tactics by shorters or folks who know the stock is a good buy but wanted it at lower price. We have lots of those lately. What I like about the latest earning numbers are:
1. Strong numbers with their existing games/franchise and no top 10 hits. This really are good numbers as this is what I called a baseline/recurring revenue. They have proven that this is sustainable with their 8 genres + more games
2. If you use the $70M numbers and multiple by 4, you will see that it will surpass the high end of guidance for 2015. With so many new games in the pipeline as well as updates of existing franchise games, this is a good spot to be in
3. I also do think that they will also do an acquisition for genre they currently don't have. They track record on ROI for their acquisitions is stellar
4. KKH and RR and to a certain extend DH and Sniper are holding pretty up pretty well. I have expected them to decline much more but they have been surprising me.
5. What's not tracked by App Annie or Think Gaming numbers the in game ads. Those has 100% margin for us and some of GLUU games have really good ads revenue
Here's my view:
+- 0.01 EPS. However, this does not really matter for this stock. See below points.
- This is going to be really ugly. -0.08 to -0.12 EPS. While this impact WRES, it is not the real determinant of the stock price.
What I'm looking for:
- Marcellus realized price: this has been horrendous the past 2 months, ranging averagely from $1 to $1.5 during the winter months. Unless we get super hot summer, this is going to be the price until the next winter
- Pipeline around Marcellus - while pipeline capacity is increasing, the pipeline has dedicated owner already owning the capacity. However, if it connects to AGT hub, it will more than likely produce a better Marcellus realized price for all. It could bring down the average price of Henry Hub but increase the price of Marcellus (decrease the differential). This is contingent the producers do not start to open up the capped spigots.
- Crude oil price - specifically California MS. While the breakeven cost is $45 (note we are currently only slightly above the MDS), there are cost of capital as well as operational costs. They are not going to drill unless the crude is above $65.
- Atlantic Rim - As stated previously, there are obligations to drill a minimum number or you lose the acreage. However, what's not clear to me is why drilling is not permitted until August. Is this a new law or restrictions? Is this applicable to all producers or only WRES? I don't think we have this restriction previously. Anyway, those are real assets and I hope we don't lose them.
- P&G contract - will end in June 2015 and I hope they get a better deal than Marcellus price. Will definitely NOT be the Henry Hub + 0.03 anymore
- Interest coverage ratio of our debt convenant: I expect we will hit this in Q3'15 if oil and gas prices do not increase significantly from current prices. Once we hit this, I assume that we will renegotiate with BOM but it is a place a rather not go.
I think it is a good thing. Visa Int. wanted to do their own thing and divorced MONI. However, they also recognized that MONI has value and kept their share at this bargain basement price. The recent drop is a coordinated short seller attack after getting info about MONI not meeting the guidance. That's why MONI has no choice but to release the result much much earlier. Also, I do not believe that their have any intention to sell. It is a strategy to deter the short sellers.
As you can see from the latest options filing for officers and directors, while they got some options, it is not only not vested yet but is conditioned upon SP of 4x or 5x current price. Now, I will give them more as incentive to perform :)
When oil tanked and so did WRES at the end of Nov, I doubled down as WRES is going to reap more much more from gas an oil. With my luck, the gas started to tanked too and without oil hedges and only about 10% of natural gas production are hedged, I could not take the risk and took half off the table. The risk exposure was too high and calculated that they could be in trouble with their debt covenant. However, I do believe in the company and do not want to miss out on the rally if cold weather cooperates in the next 2-3 months and if oil recovers after Jan/Feb. On hindsight, I should have taken all off the table but this is investing.
We can't predict the share price, boglene. If we could, I would not be sitting down here writing this stupid reply to you. But it is a relatively straightforward forecast for its earnings - 4Q'14 will be okay and 1Q'15 will be terrible. It is not about earnings now though. It is about cash flow and debt which directly influence by WTI, Henry Hub, and Marcellus prices (yes, you need these three prices). As painful as I'm writing this, I still have a large position, I think these are the catalyst/determinants - short and mid -term:
1. EIA Weekly gas storage report - tomorrow noon - expectation is the draw of 126 bcf. Higher will be positive for gas price and lower will be detrimental
2. WTI price - we are now lower than breakeven as our breakeven is $45 CMS price. However, it doesn't really matter as we are not committing any new capex to drill new wells. I expect the lease/operations cost to come down a bit but because we do not have any hedge, the WTI will influence our cash flow
3. Henry Hub and Marcellus prices - the differential is currently at times about $2. With Henry Hub still coming down, Marcellus price is really horrid. However, I'm praying that the cold weather will sustain. If not, we better hope summer is super hot.
4. If the above prices hangs around or drift lower, I think we will need to cut our capex further. This will impact production down the road but we are talking about survivor now, not growth.
5. All this lead to the most important determinant of the share price - debt convenant. With current prices, we will breach the convenant. However, I don't think Bank of Montreal will terminate the loan and ask for repayment. I will be surprised if WRES management does not reach out to BOM to renegotiate the debt. It will be of detrimental to the current share holder but we will survive. This is the route REN took recently.
Piper Jaffray and Cannacord Genuity recently just issued report that Glu will exceed Q4 guidance. So, we will see..
Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic as you are. I think the fundamentals are getting worse with depressed gas and oil prices. If the storage does is still within the 5 year range, we will be looking at current gas prices not only for the winter but throughout spring and summer. As I said, I'm still hoping for a big withdrawal Jan/Feb. Marcellus price has also need to come up as we will be in big trouble if it does not. Current price will render them breaching the debt convenant in th first quarter next year.
I'm was waiting for $2.5 to reduce my holdings but will use today's runup to reduce. Still have hoping things will improve but just need to take half out at current level.
I agreed. They were in the same situation in 2009 and almost BK. After that, they hedged not to profit from it but to protect cash flow. They have to as they just borrowed more than $300MM. Now, they are in deep hole. Very deep hole if gas price doesn't recover fast.
However, one thing that I would agree with Arm is that it is hard to hedge Marcellus gas prices. An example, today, Nymex is up but Marcellus tumbled to less than a dollar (Yup, you heard this correctly. Less than a dollar. This is way below operational cost and we have not even counted the capex investment.
Honestly, the only thing that realistically matters for WRES now is a very cold Northeast in the next 3 months. If not, it is game over even if oil price average around $70 or $64 CMS.
It seemed that WRES cannot get a break. Based on next year's production guidance, every $1 of oil price is equivalent to about $0.03 of natural gas . So, while this stock tracks the oil price, we are impacted by gas price than oil price. And we have been hammered by gas lately. The only saving grace is that Marcellus gas price does not exactly track NYMEX price. However, our P&G contract as well as Wyoming are dependent on NYMEX price.
Damm. The luckiest person in the world is Lance. If you looked at Citrus P&L, they were heavily in debt and losing money. He sold Marcellus at a great price to WRES at the time when gas price peaked, escaped the rout, with millions in his pocket now after paying the debt of his company. He should have at least 50MM and 3+ millions of WRES shares, the only hit he took. Now, he is back as CEO. Bought a few thousand shares and his millions of shares benefited . He is a real lucky guy.
Transportation revenue is from the pipeline we own in Wyoming. The getting the revenue from themselves as well as other producers who used the pipeline. That's why they booked it under transportation revenue. The realized gas price is industry standard term and already include transportation expense. Operating cost or lease line does not include transportation expense. That's my understanding.
My 2015 projection was to see whether they need to draw their revolver if things stay the same as they are now. I think they will need to, unfortunately.
If you go back a couple of quarters before Marcellus acquisition, the transportation cost is already there. It will be either for Wilmington or Wyoming. For Wyoming, they owned the pipeline, so not sure how the accounting is done.
The realized gas price they reported are NET of transportation costs. This is standard for all oil and gas company. I have also went back to get the cash price from Aug 11th to Sept 30th and this average out to be 3.91. For the same period, Marcellus average out to be 2.08. Now, use this formula:(
(volume for P&G x Henry Hub Average - transportation cost (0.62) +0.03
(volume for the rest of Marcellus X Marcellus price)
(volume for Wyoming X Henry Hub - transportation cost (0.73)
You will get very close to realized price of 2.73 that they reported.
Personally, I'm looking to reduce my exposure when it hit $2.5. This down and up ride have been breathtaking and but not my style. I think with current prices for gas and oil, fundamentally, 2015 is a ride out year unless oil change drastically. Gas price needs to go up pretty fast the next two months as that is the peak period time. It has been a bit of a disappointment for me with Marcellus gas at $2 range. We are almost a dollar lower now than last year for Henry Hub.
SO, waiting for $2.5...
Existing wells. They are not putting new capex to drill for oil next year unless the economics change. $55 will translate to $49-50 CMS price which is WRES realized price. The no hedging is really killing our cash flow.
Actually I do think the the oversupply is in 2015. Like WRES, although we stopped drilling new wells, existing wells that have been drilled will keep producing. We will be producing almost a million barrels next year without new capex. 2016 is when the supply will get corrected. WRES stock may have recovered by then but the CMS price will still be depressed until then. Next year will be a lost year I think.
I also think that oil may settled higher but it will not be in the $100 next year. Maybe in the $70 but who knows.
Now, I'm in a dilemma - to sell or not to sell. Just afraid that this is a rebound rally from oversold or short squeeze. Fundamentals of gas and oil gas prices are still pretty bad for now..
For the knowledgeable ones in this board, what do you think?
Here's my 2015 projection that is putting a some doubts in me. Still holding a big chunk now and wondering whether I should let go some:
Cash flow basis:
Revenue - Oil..................(950@$50) = $47.5M
Revenue - Gas................(36,500@$3) = $109.5
Revenue - transportation......................= $4M
Total Revenue 2015.............................= $161M - which is an increase to this year
Cost - Operations and Lease................=$60M
Cost - Capex.........................................=$80M (Note this is not DDA as I wanted to know their cash flow)
Cost - Transportation expense..............= $2M
Cost - G&A............................................= $12M
Cost - Interest expense.........................=$30M
Total cost 2015......................................=$184M
Revolver to be drawn..........................$23M
Assumption of $3 realized gas price:
- Marcellus is currently running @2.25 average for 4Q'15
- Henry Hub is running @3.8 but need to take out transportation cost of 0.62 for Marcellus and 0.73 for - Wyoming
- expecting that the 1Q'15 gas price will be higher and the rest of the quarters average
- Expecting that P&G contract price will get renewed at slightly above current Marcellus price in Jun 2015
- Included the hedging of gas
Assumption of $50 gas price (note this is CMS price which is about $6 lower than WTI)
- I think this will the range for 2015
- Every dollar increase in old price will increase our revenue by $1M
There is going to be a decline but not immediate. The shale oil will decline within 3 years but almost at half life rate. It is all about survival now. I would have hope that oil can drop QUICKLY to 40's then recover quickly. If not it, will be a slow death for many small E&P. My model at realized oil of $50 and gas at $3 is showing negative EPS for 1Q'15. Currently we are below both realized prices. I think the market may have priced this in. What are not priced in are drawing from revolver (many are predicting incorrectly we will use cash flow = capex, and breaching of debt convenant (we will be very close in 1Q'15)