- VISA Europe is mainly on the customized platform and in the form of Development work. If VE choose not to extend after March 2016, it will not impact the EBITDA positive forecast.
- if extend, it will likely move to standardized platform
- cash burn for this Fy15 includes the initial cash contribution to the JV with Santander as well as one off item. Thus, cash burn for the coming quarter will be significantly reduced
- contracts are delayed for last quarter due to strategic review and should show up this quarter.
To sent a message to the board, I'm voting NO to all except for the auditors. My thousands of shares may not be much but I think we will need to send a message that it cannot be business as usual. There are things that you cannot control (macro environment) but there are things that you are paid to do (operational). Not delivering on a simple Android Texting app is NOT good management.
Terminator is in the dump. Bad reviews all around and I expect it to follow Robocop. Cooking Dash is doing surprising well. Following the trend of Tap Sports Baseball.
Did not meant to directly reply to you. Obviously, some shorts are trading the range of $6.5 to $8 and is paying the SA author to write the article to start the ball rolling. What I have is selective use of data to show it is factual. IMHO, CALL has stopped the decline (Q2 will confirm the numbers). If that is the case, existing loyal customers are here to stay and CALL should use this cash cow for future growth. iOS and Android APPs are very important to the future. So are international markets where the conditions are ideal for MagicJack/app and SOHO. They should spend some money to push those frontiers.
The problem currently is lost of trust of the management mainly due to their broken promises.
Counter arguments to SA article. Still believe it is a coordinated short attack.
“business is in a clear decline” – WRONG. Business is stabilizing. While y/y revenue has declined from 2012 to 2104 as mentioned, the revenue for the last 3 quarters have been stabilizing ~$25.5M
“Device sale revenue is plummeting” – WRONG. It is actually increasing from 4Q’14 to 1Q’15
“device-related deferred revenue rose modestly sequentially in the quarter, and activations were up 16%” – YES. From 4Q’14 to 1Q’15, deferred revenue, current and activations WERE UP.
“Net subscriber loss was 54,000” – TRUE. However, as noted this has reached an inflection point. Investment in customer care has helped but I believe, the churn rate of ~3% is going to stay. Customers are using the device for many reasons and one of them is for short term. Going forward in the future, this may not be the only measurement as most customers are using the APP instead of device. I will discuss a bit more about the APP later.
“deferred revenue balance has declined (by over $14 million in the last two years combined).” – WRONG. Not sure where you get your data but deferred revenue including current is around $114M (at the end of 2013) and around $111M (at the end of 2014). It has increased to $113M in the 1Q’15.
“magicJack is only projecting about $44 million in 'new' 2015 revenue from the business. In 2013, that figure was $76 million” – AGAIN. Selective use of data. Use 2014 if you are going to compare to 2015. For 2014, it is $60M. Also, the $100M projected for 2015 is not given. It may increase and I think it will as the management has turned very conservative.
There is a limit CALL can buy per day depending on the average volume. This is a coordinated short attack when the price gets to around $8 as evident by the SA article then the price action. The SA article is full of 'scaring" tactics with selective reporting of "factual" numbers.
No worries. It is summer holiday time and it is also KKH time! watch the ranking for the next few months...
I think Vento is talking about retailers but online stores is a good substitute. Just like we have in the US, Amazon but also need retailers to push the product. I think the biggest surprise of all is how well the ios app has been doing. I think it is not only because of SMS but also the in-app purchases they allow folks to buy the pre-paid minutes. they have already release the second number thingy in Mexico for 1.99 and the take up rate is not too good. I think it needs the devices for it to be more sticky.
For this year, it is all about cash generation as well as growth from ios and android app. In fact, I think they should focus more development on the app (take a look at Viber where they are selling stickers, etc)
It is interesting to note that the MagicJack apps for US and Mexico are having a different take-up rate.
MagicJack USA (Mexico) app
- Not doing too well
- Mexico does not have sell the GO device yet
MagicApp (USA) app
- Doing pretty well - much better than I expected in terms of download and grossing
- Sustained gross ranking of around 250 - translate to $10k to 15k per day or $3.5M or $5.5M revenue
- Sustained download/free ranking of 450 - translate to download of 30k to 35k per day
The revenue from the US app could be a surprised addition in the 2nd quarter.