With download still strong, i'm not surprised if DH2016 makes another attempt for top 10. It took them about a month to be the top 5 grossing for DH2014. Also, they are going to keep updating the "regions" in the coming weeks and months as well as running events. Region 4 - Tanzania is coming soon and Nature's Fury events is just 15 days away.
On a separate not, I'm more excited about Bond games then ever. Low expectation, new genre for Glu, and promotion is extensive. The games is pretty different from the beta.
Does anyone know why they are releasing Bond first before EW4?
For the last installment of DH 2014, it took slightly more than a month from #1 free ranking to #4 (the highest) gross ranking.
Right now, it is #2 in free ranking and #91 in gross ranking after only 2 days.
Here’s what are the numbers to look out for on 9th September. There are actual FY2015 numbers and FY2016 forecast information. Normally, the forecast information will move the SP but given the history of this company, I would look to the actual numbers to make an informed inference of the forecast numbers (all in pounds). These numbers could potentially move the SP 50-100% in either direction (no kidding) if on one end of my projection to another. Whatever SP movement from now until 9th is really a child's play :)
- FY2015 Revenue: Guidance 88-90M ( I actually expect this to be 92M)
- Operating costs: 55M H1’15 (I expect this to be 40M in H2’15)
- EBITDA: -31M H1’15 (I expect this to be -15M for H2’15)
- Cash burn: 88.6M H1’15 cash level (I expect H2’15 to be 55M. I also expect that they will announce more cash infusion in the form of issuing more shares. The key question by whom and at what price)
- Registered users: 33M (Now, this is where I think they could have a drop in registered users or they could convolute it by adding the downloads. If they announce the registered users grew to 40M, it will be great
- FY2016 EBITDA profitability (make your assumption from operating costs and EBITDA for 2H’15 rather than what they said)
- FY2016 Forecast (anything less than 20-30% growth from FY2015 will severely jeopardize the 2016 profitability assumption