i have CCXI on my list. They just got positive results for diabetic nephropathy but some commentators question why they have not released certain key aspects of their data. EXEL is on my list as well. I'll check out the others. Nice to see TGTX go up today - i plan to hold despite the recent weakness.
Starfe1l - i recently bought Bellicum (BLCM) when it dipped below 20 (i averaged in at 19.6). I have owned MACK for over a year - made decent money on it as i got in at about 2.7 and it's now around 10 - but i'll likely sell that in the next 1-3 months. Beyond that, i'm still looking - and i have a list that i continue to review. Do you have anything in mind?
part 1: MLV $TGTX Following discussions with Management, we believe the Phase 3 GENUINE trial
of TG-1101 + ibrutinib in high-risk chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has started
recruiting and that at least one pivotal trial of combination of TG-1101 + TGR-1202
will commence in 2015. Given the efficacy and safety seen in Phase 1 trials,
we think this is an astute move, and TGTX's ability to combine its PI3K-delta
inhibitor and anti-CD20 antibody in-house puts them in an enviable position from
a marketing and pricing perspective. We reiterate our Buy rating and $22/share PT.
Broad Clinical Program Already in Place with Additional Trials Planned. While
focusing on the 1303 (1303 = TG-1101 + TGR-1202) combination, TGTX continues
to develop alternative pathways to approval for TGR-1202, with two Phase
1 combination trials (+ brentuximab; and + obinutuzumab + chlorambucil)
continuing. We think a Phase 3 registrational trial for 1303 could start in 1H15
in diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), or
indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma (iNHL).
Manufacturing Preparations Well Under Way. Manufacturing capacity at a
commercial scale is available for TG-1101 through LFB (France) with a second
source on track to be online by initation of the 1303 combination trial. In an
SEC filing, TGTX's definitive agreement with Rhizen to manufacture TGR-1202 for
clinical trials and commercialization also specifies how royalties would be paid
to Rhizen for a combination therapy. A similar definitive agreement was reached
with LFB Biotechnologies and GTC Biotherapeutics in January 2012. In our view,
this indicates TGTX is already thinking ahead to potential pricing strategies. We
continue to believe having multiple effective drugs within its portfolio that can be
combined is a key advantage for TGTX.
Cramer hype is done. Back to radio silence in terms of materially important new info until ASCO. Turn off the monitor until late May.
remember when MACK had an up day? seems like a distant memory
Igon - I have not sold any of my shares, as yet. The last time I was caught in this sort of "limbo" situation - where I could foresee the shares languishing due to a lack of news and/or data - I did in fact start selling and when I was half through that process the company got taken out by Gilead (I am referring to YMI Biosciences). Something unpredictable (and positive) could happen with TGTX (such as a takeout or release of new data), but the more probable next events are Weiss speaking at a few forthcoming conferences (not to mention CNBC) and the release of new data at ASCO in late May. If that's the sequence of events, then the stock could gradually deflate to the 10-12 range. i'll probably still hold since i'm optimistic about ASCO. In terms of my other biotech holdings (namely, BLCM and MACK), I think I may sell MACK in the next few months but will likely hold BLCM even though it's really volatile.
probably chinaman's doing - when he doesn't like a post or gets his feelings hurt, he contacts yahoo and says that a particular post is mean or makes him feel less positive about himself
i think TGTX is destined to be range bound at 10-12 soon but single digits unlikely. Weiss will not partner (that will hurt the stock), will not sell in the near term (that will hurt the stock), will pursue an IRAK4 program (many competitors here - no differentiating strategy or data for a long time - that will hurt the stock). I don't see many near term positives. A year from now is a different story - TGTX should have solid new data, may be even as early as ASCO this year - but not the next few or several months. As a result, 10-12 here we come.
i found out that Weiss gets a 1% royalty off any sales of the IRAK4 compound - i'm annoyed cause that creates a conflict with respect to the development of 1101 and 1202 which are a far, far higher priority. TGTX sold off cause a) no deal any time soon, and b) no new data. Wait until ASCO.
Really bad - my collective biotech holdings got trashed. And Don's (Weiss's) got hit even harder - his TGTX stake is down over $12 million today
yeah - broader market sell off, that's true. And biotech hit particularly hard - especially with the growing chorus that payors will resist high priced oncology and rare disease drugs. But even taking those factors into account, TGTX got hit particularly hard - down over 10%. Most biotechs slid 4-6% today. As I said - i'm staying long because of the merit in 1101 and 1202 - but TGTX may well slide to 10-12 in the time period leading to ASCO. Maybe that's a reason to wait a bit and then load up if and when it does go down to that range.
I don't think there was upward manipulation. But now that the TGTX presentation is over, and the stock is moving down not up, I think we'll continue to drift downward until the next "new" data release which may be ASCO at the end of May. While I remain a long, I think we need to be prepared for the stock to drift down toward the 10-12 range.
i think the path forward is great with three caveats. 1) did they release any new data? data will drive this and w/o new data it'll languish a bit until such data emerges, 2) do we really want them to spend alot of time on IRAK4 when they could be pushing options for 1101 and 1202?, and 3) autoimmune is interesting but these trials are, i believe, bigger and potentially pretty pricey so i hope they have a very, very strong clinical rationale to base it on.
while i think that 1101 and 1202 are great developmental candidates, i think that Weiss won't agree to a partnership or take out unless the terms are quite rich, and that may mean nothing will happen on that front until the end of the year or next. As a result, even with new data steadily coming out, the stock could be range bound between 13-20 for the entire year. Just a risk. I'm very long TGTX - and i think PCYC and other companies are surely looking closely - but they'll resist a huge payout at least for now.
Maybe so - if nothing new in the Thursday presentation, then you very well could be right.